The United States is developing a new air-to-ground missile and it's designed just for China.
Although the U.S. military hasn’t exactly said its new Stand-in Attack Weapon – or
SiAW for short – is meant for China, they are one of the very few countries that pose
the types of threats that the SiAW is designed to deal with.
Today we are going to explore integrated air defense systems and the threats they pose
to military aircraft.
We will see why weapons such as the SiWA will give the United States the ability to strike
deep into enemy territory and destroy even the most sophisticated air defense systems.
We will learn how the SiAW will protect non-stealth aircraft and why it will allow the United
States to dominate the skies in the eve nt of a war with a major military power such
as China.
Let’s start by talking about modern air defense systems and why they are so dangerous
to American aircraft.
The concept of an integrated air defense system was first devised in 1936 by British Air Marshall
Hugh Dowding.
During the First World War, Britain protected London from Zepplin attacks by surrounding
the city with three concentric rings.
The outer ring consisted of searchlights and anti-aircraft artillery.
The second ring was comprised of fighter aircraft.
The innermost ring contained more searchlights and anti-aircraft weapons.
Air Marshall Dowding changed all that.
In his eyes, Britain would be best protected by establishing a single command center where
information could be centralized, and orders given out to multiple units to jointly protect
a section of air space.
The best example of the Dowding System– as it later became known – is the Battle
of Britain during the Second World War.
In 1940, Germany was seeking to gain air superiority in preparation for a potential invasion of
the British Isles.
Over the course of the nearly four-month campaign, Germany lost 1,900 aircraft before finally
accepting the fact that it would never gain air superiority.
Such losses were largely the result of the Dowding System.
Information from observation posts and radar installations was collected in a Filter Room.
That information was relayed to Fighter Command, who plotted the projected path of the incoming
bombers and directed fighter aircraft to intercept them.
That isn’t very different from the integrated air defense systems today – at least in
theory.
An incoming threat is first detected by radar and other sensor equipment.
The threat is then eliminated based on that information, often with anti-aircraft missiles.
Speaking of anti-aircraft missiles, did you know that the first such system was developed
in the early 1950s?
The American MIM-3 Nike Ajax could intercept aircraft flying as high as 70,000 feet.
It had a range of 30 mi and flew at twice the speed of sound.
The Ajax carried three high explosive warheads – one in the nose, one at the center of
the missile, and one in the aft of the rocket.
The warheads would detonate when the missile reached the predicted path of the aircraft.
Over the years, integrated air defense systems have become more and more sophisticated.
They are so effective that most aircraft cannot operate in contested airspace these days.
Fourth-generation aircraft, such as the F-14, F-15, and F-16, must keep their distance out
of fear of being shot down.
The threat is so great that even some stealth aircraft may be at risk at closer ranges.
Several countries have developed homegrown integrated air defense systems over the years
– even those you might not suspect, including Iran.
The operational range can vary.
Israel’s Iron Dome has a range of 43 mi which might sound somewhat short, but it is
quite sufficient for its needs.
Other countries, such as Russia and China have developed systems that can detect and
intercept aircraft at very long distances.
For example, the Russian S-400 Triumf integrated air defense system is said to be able to identify
and track 36 targets at the same time at distances up to 249 mi.
It can not only engage aircraft at such distances, but it can also take out precision-guided
cruise missiles such as the American Tomahawk at a range of 25 mi.
The S-400 is a great example of a modern integrated air defense system.
It is comprised of a 55K6E command post, a 91B6E acquisition and battle management radar,
a 92N6E fire control radar, and up to 12 separate launch vehicles that carry up to four missiles
each.
In other words, a networked S-400 system can fire up to 48 missiles at incoming threats.
All of the components are mounted on wheeled vehicles, allowing them to be moved easily
to other locations.
Its impressive range will keep enemy aircraft far away – preventing them from carrying
out missions.
Not to be ignored, China’s long-range HQ-9 is quite powerful as well.
The HQ-9 has been described as a combination of the American Patriot system and the Russian
S-300, the predecessor to the S-400.
The system can detect incoming aircraft at a range of 125 mi and engage targets 77 mi
away.
The HQ-9 can be used against a variety of targets, including low-flying aircraft, helicopters,
cruise missiles, air-to-ground missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles.
It is a “shoot-and-scoot” platform which gives it the ability to change its location
quickly after firing upon a target.
The number of components associated with a battery is up to debate but includes a command
vehicle, a control systems vehicle, a search radar, a target control system, and six launch
vehicles, each with four missiles a piece.
It is common for four batteries to work together, bringing the total number of missiles to 96.
There have also been reports of a new variant of the HQ-9 that has a longer range and better
sensor equipment including a dual-mode semi-active radar homing and scanning infrared seeker.
It has a 180 kg warhead with a proximity fuse and can fly at speeds up to Mach 4, making
it incredibly hard to intercept.
The HQ-9 is a potential nightmare for the U.S. military – even more so because of
a chain of artificial islands China is building in the South China Sea.
The “Great Wall of Stand” as it has become known, is comprised of seven artificial islands
that were constructed by dredging vast amounts of sand and placing it on top of reefs above
and below the water.
They were then concreted to prevent erosion.
Some of these artificial islands are more than 620 mi from mainland China and are being
militarized.
China has placed a wide range of offensive and defensive systems on these islands, including
HQ-9s, anti-ship missiles, and laser and jamming equipment.
There is even a 1.87-mile-long airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef that can be used by surveillance
planes, fighter jets, and some bombers and cargo planes.
These islands serve as an outer protective shield against attacks against the mainland,
including ports that can be used for an invasion of Taiwan.
They also pose a significant threat to the U.S. Navy whose ships will need to remain
far out to sea until these defensive emplacements are destroyed.
And that brings us back to why the U.S. Air Force is developing the Stand in Attack Weapon.
With SiAW, the United States will have a powerful weapon that can overcome even the most sophisticated
air defense system, leaving China susceptible to the full military might of the U.S. Air
Force and Navy.
It doesn’t matter that the HQ-9 can be relocated to a different position relatively quickly,
the SiAW will still hunt it down and destroy it.
Even if an operator shuts down system components to avoid detection, SiAW is going to find
them and get them.
That is not good news for China.
SiAW is – as the name suggests – a Stand-in weapon.
That means it is designed to be launched within protected enemy air space.
With SiAW, American stealth aircraft can penetrate contested air space and come within range
of targets that need to be eliminated.
And those targets do not need to be close by.
SiAW is a long-range missile – and stealth aircraft add to that range.
If SiAW can reach it, it can destroy it.
Design and deployment of the SiAW will take less time than most new weapon systems.
That’s because its basic structure is modeled on a new missile being designed for the U.S.
Navy – the Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range – or AARGM-ER for
short.
If you aren’t familiar with the extended range AARGM, you should be.
It’s quite a powerful weapon itself.
The AARGM-ER is a long-range air-to-ground radar-hunting missile developed by the U.S.
Navy for its F/A 18 Super Hornet, EA-18 Growler, and carrier-based stealth F-35C aircraft.
It can also be used by the Air Force’s fleet of F-35As.
The concept of the AARGM-ER is simple.
It is meant to take out enemy air detection systems by homing in on enemy electronic transmissions
produced by radars, jamming devices, and radio signals.
Once a target is identified, the missile adjusts its trajectory and destroys it with devastating
effect.
It’s primarily meant to be used against ground targets but can also hit moving vehicles
and ships.
Designed by a subsidiary of Northrup Grumman - Alliant Techsystems – the development
of the AARGM-ER began in 2016.
Testing began in 2021 and concluded in 2023.
Deliveries are scheduled to begin in early 2024 with the missile becoming fully operational
shortly thereafter.
So far, the U.S. military has ordered 118 missiles.
Other countries, such as Australia have also placed orders.
Australia has ordered 63 missiles and Finland is interested in acquiring 150.
The Netherlands has confirmed that it too will purchase the missile for its F-35s.
The missile is about 13 feet long and weighs 467 kilograms – about 1,000 pounds.
It includes a multi-sensor guidance system, with a passive digital guidance head, active
millimeter radar, and a GPS and inertial navigation system.
It uses a smokeless solid-propellant and can fly at Mach 2.
The AARGM-ER uses a passive anti-radiation homing receiver, a millimeter wave radar,
a GPS, and an inertial navigation system to identify a target and guide the missile to
the target.
The warhead uses Northrop Grumman’s Lethality Enhanced Ordnance – or LEO – fragmentation
technology which reduces collateral damage while still packing a wallop.
Why are we talking about the AARGM-ER?
Because it is very relevant to the development of the SiAW.
The U.S. Air Force had been following what the Navy was up to with the AARGM for a while
– and it liked what it saw.
So much so that it started thinking about building a missile of its own that could take
out a wide range of targets that wouldn’t break the bank and could be developed quickly.
Thus, the idea of the SiAW was born.
The missile would be designed for the F-35A and carried within its weapons bay, so it
doesn’t interfere with the aircraft’s stealth profile.
Although the Air Force recognized that SiAW could potentially be used by other stealth
aircraft - such as the upcoming B-21 strategic bomber – it is a weapon for the F-35 first
and foremost.
And it isn’t meant to be a missile designed just to destroy air defense systems.
While SiAW will be able to do that – and do it well – the Air Force wanted the missile
to do more.
It wanted a weapon that could take out a wide range of different targets.
So, when the Air Force submitted a budgetary request in 2018 to study its options, it laid
out all of the things it wanted SiAW to do.
It wanted an Anti-Access/Area Denial weapon – or A2/AD – that could be used against
fixed and rapidly relocatable targets.
In its budgetary request, the Air Force specifically mentioned Integrated Air Defense Systems,
Theater Ballistic Missile Launchers, Land Attack and Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Launchers,
GPS Jammers, and Anti-Satellite Systems.
It will also be able to sink moving ships as well as fixed assets such as command and
control centers.
In other words, the Air Force wanted a highly maneuverable air-to-ground missile that could
target pretty much everything, even if it was moving.
And it wanted the development to heavily leverage the design and technology being incorporated
into AARGM-ER so it could be developed and tested more quickly and at a lower cost.
In 2020, the Air Force issued an RFI – request for information – to Northrop Grumman, L3Harris,
and Lockheed Martin to establish an integrated digital environment to design, develop, and
test the initial increment of the SIAW missile system.
And it wanted it to be done using digital engineering methodology.
What is digital engineering?
Digital engineering is a way to design things using computer simulations, modeling, advanced
algorithms, and even artificial intelligence.
With digital engineering, almost all aspects of a project can be built, reviewed, and tested
without a physical prototype.
It can be used to develop a wide variety of systems such as circuit cards, aircraft, and
even intercontinental ballistic missiles.
In recent years, the U.S. Air Force has been very focused on digital engineering because
it speeds up projects and allows for multiple partners to build components based on an initial
design.
It is for that reason that digital engineering was included in the RFI requirements.
The advantages that Northrop Grumman had – such as its strength in digital engineering and
the fact that it designed the AARGM-ER missile that SiAW was to leverage – ultimately led
Lockheed Martin and L3Harris to bow out of the competition.
So, in September 2023, the Air Force awarded a $700 million contract to Northrop-Grumman
to move forward with the project.
Since SiAW is still being designed, there aren’t many specific details regarding the
missile.
But based on what we do know, it looks like SiAW will be a game changer if a war ever
broke out between the United States and China.
SiAW will be a modular platform meaning that it will be possible to swap out components
relatively quickly.
It is not clear if the ability to change components will be used to tailor the missile for specific
missions or simply make it easier to upgrade.
Conceivably it will do both.
It will also feature open-architecture interfaces to allow for subsystem upgrades to keep up
with electronic improvements to the F-35 over time.
SiAW will be a supersonic missile, capable of speeds of at least Mach 2.
It will be highly maneuverable, able to change course as needed with or without being controlled
by the pilot.
It will have hardened – low-signature sensors, making it difficult to identify and intercept.
SiAW will not be limited to seeking targets directly ahead of it.
It will also be able to look for targets from either side and potentially behind it.
Such technology already exists and is being used on the AIM-9X Sidewinder.
It will also use a new warhead being developed as part of the project.
Since SiAW is meant to be used against many different targets, a fragmentation-based warhead
such as found on the AARGM-ER may not be effective enough against all of the targets that the
SiAW is designed to destroy.
One of the most interesting aspects of the SiAW is that it can be launched without a
specific target in mind.
Essentially, a F-35 pilot will be able select a geographic area and allow the missile to
pick out its target as it closed in.
SiAW will also have a two-way data link that would provide the pilot with the option to
select a new target area while the missile is in flight.
It is even conceivable that with this data link, it can communicate with other missiles
in flight and share targeting information.
That would be exceptionally helpful in directing stand-off missiles that are fired outside
the range of air defense systems.
SiAW is the right missile at the right time.
Tensions are increasing between the United States and China at an alarming rate.
Some of the tension is centered around the artificial islands that China has built.
China is declaring water and airspace rights around these islands – which the United
States considers open waters.
This has led to several incidents between the militaries of both nations and neither
side is backing down.
But that is not all.
The most likely scenario that would lead to a major conflict between the two powers is
a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan is an interesting story unto itself.
It’s part rogue province and part autonomous state.
Although most of the global community does not consider Taiwan a country, most major
powers maintain unofficial diplomatic and military relations with its government.
Even Taiwan is a bit confused as to what it is.
None of that matters because mainland China considers Taiwan as part of the People’s
Republic of China, and it wants it under its complete control.
The level of Chinese saber rattling is intensifying.
China even released a documentary in 2023 about its state of readiness to invade Taiwan.
In the event of such an invasion, would the United States defend Taiwan?
Well, that’s a good question.
Officially, the United States has been very ambiguous as to what it would do if China
attempted to invade Taiwan.
Unofficially, it certainly would.
We know that because U.S. President Joe Biden has made direct statements that the United
States would protect Taiwan.
He hasn’t been ambiguous about that at all.
In a television interview in 2022, Biden was asked if the United States would defend Taiwan.
His answer was, “Yes”.
In any direct conflict with China, the United States needs to gain air superiority early
on.
And that’s a problem.
As we have seen, the range and sophistication of China’s defense network will make it
extremely dangerous for American aircraft and naval vessels to operate anywhere close
to Taiwan.
That’s where the SiAW comes in.
Because the stealth F-35 can penetrate enemy air space, SiAWs can clear a safe path for
non-stealth strike aircraft to carry out their missions.
Not only that, SiAW can take out a wide variety of other targets, including anti-ship launchers
that will initially keep the U.S. Navy out of the fight for Taiwan.
An actual war between the United States and China is highly unlikely any time soon.
But if such a war does break out in the future, the U.S. Air Force will be ready and able
to deal a serious blow with SiAW.
What do you think?
Can the United States protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion?
How much of an impact will SiAW make in the event of a war between the United States and
China?
Please share your comments below.
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