Good Saturday evening to you. I'm 10.
Tampa Bay meteorologist Natalie Ferrari.
We are your hurricane headquarts
and we have been getting new daa
just in from the National Hurrie
Center within the past hour.
Several several rounds of activy
we've been watching across the tropics.
Thankfully those areas of disturbed weather
in the Atlantic not concerned about one bit.
And yes, we do have a Hurricane Franklin
heading towards Bermuda early next week.
Not worried about that one as w.
But the big story for us here locally
is going to be this one right here that
we will track detail by detail hour by
hour for you as we go through the rest
of the weekend and into next week because
it is officially an organized system.
We have a closed low.
We do have Tropical Depression 10 on the map.
This is something that is going
to be sticking around through te
weekend that stationary status,
this is barely moving right
along the Yucatan channel,
so right between Cancun and Western Cuba.
The center is positioned just right here.
And over the last several,
several scans,
we have seen just that conductin
continue to fire up all througho
the east of it and even down tos
the South and north of the centr
of this system continuing to see
them kind of bubble up reform ad
then kind of dwindle down.
That pattern looking to continue for the
next 24 to possibly near 36 six hours.
We're talking about a nearly stationary
system which in that time window could allow
it that wind speed to start to bump up,
get a little stronger and take
it to that tropical storm statu.
So I do think by the end of the weekend,
we could actually be dealing wih
a named storm,
a tropical storm and that would be Edalia.
That would be the next name on the list.
You actually see kind of circles
around itself over the next 24 hours.
Then it actually gets a little bit of
forward momentum to the north rt
out of the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday
through Monday afternoon and evening.
We are now entering those warm f
waters in the Gulf of Mexico and
the National Hurricane Center iw
thinking not only could this strengthen
to a tropical storm status through Tuesday,
but possibly by Tuesday night.
A low end category one hurrican,
you need 74 mile per hour.
Winds are higher to get it to
a hurricane status.
We may briefly touch that 75
mile per hour wind speed,
which would actually help to get
to that category one status befe
drifting its way towards the northeastern
portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
Now this is something very important to note.
This track does not represent
areas of impact.
This track represents where the
center of that storm could fall.
So it could be a far West of that track.
So we're talking the Panhandle
or as Far East,
which is right there in the Tama
Bay area right over Pinellas Co.
So that is basically where that
track can toggle to as we go
through the next couple of days.
Do not follow directly down the center.
It could be on either side.
That is how that track does basically work
and how it does have that widespread.
Once you do get several days out
and you'll see that as it contis
to track its way through the
southeastern portions of the Und
States by the middle of next we,
it will weaken out towards
this East Coast as it does so.
But there has been quite a bit a
widespread as far as how far either to
the east or to the West of the center
of this system could actually develop.
And you'll notice over the next couple of
days we'll be seeing these fine-tuned,
we'll see them kind of start to cluster
a little closer and closer toger
as far as how wide that spread .
But let me show you some of
our computer models,
basically why one is saying the Panhandle
one is a little bit closer to te
Nature Coast or the Big Bend ar.
Well, here's what's going on.
We have our European model.
This one has been picking up ons
cluster of moisture for days now and it
is agreeing that right over a Cancun,
right in that Yucatan channel,
we're not going to have a whole
lot of momentum.
We're not going to have a whole
lot of movement which could help
this system go from a tropical
depression to a tropical storm.
So that is an agreement with that cone.
You'll notice how it continues to drive
its way through the eastern pors
of the Gulf of Mexico through Monday,
really into the Monday night
and into Tuesday ahead of it.
But that's when we can start tol
some of those impacts that outer flow
around Anything tropical in thef
of Mexico will help to throw soe
increased winds along the coastd
of course some of those rain bas
and some of those heavier downp.
And that can start as early as
Monday night going into Tuesday.
But notice the center of it stag
over the Gulf of Mexico and trying to
push up towards that Big Bend region,
maybe around Cedar Key or lookig
a little bit closer to the eastn
half of the Panhandle.
But right in that, that region,
this center is where it's wantio
drift off to in this particular model.
And this one has actually been pretty
consistent with that placement
and that timing.
Let me take you to the GFS because this
one has been changing on us bacd
forth over the past couple of r.
It has a similar aspect as far
as Sunday and into early Monday,
wanting to stay right over that
Yucatan channel.
But then it does push off a lite
bit quicker
as it makes its way through the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and it actually wants to go just
a tad bit more to the West and that would
actually take it more into the Panhandle.
The further W you have the cent,
the lower amount of impacts we would notice
here immediately in the Tampa Bay area.
I do think we'll still get quite
a bit of those breezy winds and
those bands of rain moving thro,
but it also brings the system up
towards the coast a little quic,
which means you don't have a whole lot of
time to throw water into the Tampa Bay area,
meaning storm surge.
That would be less of a concern
with that part of the forecast.
Again, that will continue to ch,
but that's kind of what we're looking
at with some of the latest mode.
European also showing the bulk of the
heaviest rain with the system ly
going to be sitting right aroune
eastern half of the center of that storm,
but it will be over the Gulf of Mexico.
However, right along the coast,
we have a few things going on.
If a system just sits right off the West
Coast of Florida and drives up to the north,
you've got quite a bit of that y
rain associated with it that wil
impact our coastal regions of the most.
We also will have some storm
surge impacting the coastal are,
especially the barrier islands.
That looks like that's where ths
could be the more problematic,
especially for the bulk of that
storm surge concern.
Three to five feet will be posse
primarily along those barrier islands,
but that would be at high tide,
which we're going to have a few
rounds of that,
a few hours of high tide because we have
a full moon by the middle of the week.
So that 3 to 5 foot storm surge,
that won't be for all up and down the
media coast for everyone that's going to
be in some spots more so than others,
that will feel that impact.
But that'll be the main concernt
we would have to watch for anytg
that would be trying to drive some of
that water up along the media ct
depending again just how far off
the coast the center of that sym
would brush by rainfall totals.
Those are going to be a widespr,
because I do think the heaviest
rain will try to trickle right g
the immediate coast.
That's where we could see 5-6 is
or more from this entire event.
The further inland you go,
that's where things will be a
little bit closer to three,
maybe 4 inches of rainfall,
which we can actually take.
We can handle that because we ae
dealing with a severe to extreme drought
along parts of the immediate co.
So our soil is kind of ready
for that amount of water,
but we will be talking about
really keeping a very
close eye on tropical impacts
either from a tropical storm,
a strengthening tropical storm or possibly
now maybe a low end cat one hurricane,
which again could still be someg
very serious that we'd have to
watch out for impacts when it
comes to rain and to that wind.
We would see some of those impas
start to kind of brush up on the
southern counties as early as
Monday night going to Tuesday.
The bulk of parts of West Central Florida
could see that Tuesday and into Wednesday.
So those are a lot of details.
We're still fine tuning impactst
has a little bit of a lower confidence
because it really is going to dd
just how far off the immediate
coast we would see that center f
circulation as well as how quicy
the storm moves to see if it ise
to actually make it to a strongr
tropical storm or a low end hurricane.
So we'll be fine tuning every se
bit of this forecast for you ase
go through the next several day.
As mentioned,
the next name on the list is
Edalia and that is likely what
we're going to be talking about.
If it's not later tonight,
it for sure will be through
your Sunday forecast tomorrow.
So we'll be here live once agait
8:30 tonight and of course overn
10 Tampa Bay on TV at 11:00 with
the latest updates on the tropi.
We've got everything you need
to know here at 10 Tampa Bay.