for North Korea the escalation ladder is
only artillery and then nuclear weapons
that's very scary that's very
frightening it's exactly the sort of
scenarios that we tried to avoid with
the Soviet Union during the Cold
War starting in 2003 the United States
China Russia South Korea and Japan began
negotiating with Kim Jong-il to stop
North Korea from developing nuclear
weapons the meetings came to be known as
the six party talks and they were
ultimately
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unsuccessful North Korea just conducted
its fourth nuclear test in January and
used a ballistic missile to launch a
satellite into orbit a month later the
UN responded with harsh new sanctions
that block North Korea from exporting
coal and other valuable Commodities
while also Banning Imports of everything
from Airplane Fuel to luxury goods like
watches jet skis and
snowmobiles with tensions running high
on the Korean Peninsula Vice news
visited the center for strategic and
International Studies to speak with
Victor Chaw the top adviser on North
Korea to former President George W bush
and one of the US representatives in the
six-party talks to discuss North Korea's
nuclear threat and the state of the Kim
regime North North Korea has claimed
that this most recent test was of a
hydrogen bomb which is the the most
powerful type of of nuclear weapon
there's been a lot of skepticism among
experts the International Community
about this claim that it was a hydrogen
bomb what's your take on that and if
they don't have it already are they
close to getting that capability I think
we always tend to
underestimate their capability just to
give you a parallel example you know
before the November 2014 cyber hack of
Sony Pictures Entertainment there was
really no attention given to northren
cyber capabilities the idea was that
they really don't have much of a
capability at all and after Sony
everybody realized they're further along
than we think they are and I think
that's the thing that always worries me
about North Korea is that the popular
perception is here's this crazy dictator
who tries to fire Rockets into the air
and they just explode on him and we fall
into that but each time they are
successful it's it's much further than
we thought they were and that's always
worrying North Korea always has this
this rhetoric with their nuclear weapons
you know we could strike any time we
have missiles pointed at the United
States they've threaten to turn uh South
Korea into a sea of fire should
Americans have any sort of fear of a
North Korean nuclear strike is that
something that a rational person should
be concerned about even though North
Korea
the regime and the leadership is a
little bit unpredictable I don't think
they're suicidal so I think they
understand the basic strategic
calculation that if they were to launch
something at the United States you know
Alaska Hawaii or the Homeland that
essentially as President Clinton said
many years ago that would be the end of
North Korea as they knew it but of
course that's not the only thing we have
to worry about we have to worry with
countries like North Korea nuclear
weapons States new nuclear weapon States
we have to worry about
proliferation right that whether
intentionally or not something leaks out
could end up in the hands of Isis for
all we know we have to worry about that
right we also have to worry about the
fact that they have been developing
their nuclear weapons and their missiles
and they have artillery and their
conventional forces everything in the
middle is deteriorating rapidly that's
inherently a very unstable situation
because if we ever have a crisis you
know another land mine goes off in the
DMZ you know there fishing boats that
Collide in the west sea during crab
season and this
escalates for North Korea the escalation
ladder is only artillery and then
nuclear weapons that's very scary that's
very frightening it's exactly the sort
of scenarios that we tried to avoid with
the Soviet Union during the Cold War and
that we proactively talk to the Soviet
Union about avoiding those sorts of
scenarios just recently the UN passed
pass perhaps the the strictest sanctions
yet against North Korea and China was a
key partner in that why in your opinion
haven't the sanctions been effective so
far and do you think that this this new
round of sanctions from the UN will make
any sort of difference yeah so two
reasons first is the scope of the
sanctions there's a common belief out
there that North Korea is the most
sanctioned country in the world uh and
it's true we've had sanctions on them
since the Korean War but relatively
speaking if we compare it to the
sanctions regime that was created for
Iran North Korea sanctions are much to
much lesser degree uh in in terms of the
scope of the sanctions and as well as
the countries that participate in
sanctioning so that's that's one reason
the other is enforcement right even the
sanctions that have been the result of
three un Security Council resolutions as
well as unilateral sanctions by the
United States by South Korea by Japan by
Australia and others um the key has
always been how much China enforces the
sanctions um and it's not at all clear
that they have enforced the sanctions
very tightly the ones thus far do you
think that China is is serious this time
about enforcing the that harsh level of
sanctions we just don't know you know I
think that um I think the Chinese are
very angry um by the uh nuclear test I
think they're very angry uh with the
missile launch and I think the Dilemma
for the United States and the
international communities we've always
wanted China to squeeze North Korea
harder and longer than they do and and
so that will be the test of these new
sanctions we'll see for how long and for
and how hard the Chinese are willing to
squeeze the North Koreans a lot of
people uh in the west view the the the
China North Korea relationship in in
pretty simplistic terms their allies
it's much more complicated than that
right China and North Korea are not best
friends no no they're not best friends
and I think you're right I mean many see
them as older communist brother a
younger communist brother um but it's a
much more complex relationship I mean
there certainly is a deep historical
Bond there through the war right the
Chinese always refer to it as a
relationship as close as lips and teeth
right and so that has always been there
but if you look at the relationship
today I mean the Chinese president has
not met with the North Korean leader yet
he's met over eight times with the South
Korean leader
um you know the I I I think that the
North Koreans don't view the Chinese as
close friends and allies um I think they
feel like the Chinese treat them with
disrespect and it's the same thing for
the Chinese I think the Chinese despise
the North Koreans I've described it as
they're sort of in a mutual hostage
relationship you know neither of them
can afford to leave the other do you get
the sense that North Korea is less of a
priority for President Obama there's
always this criticism of the Obama
administration because of their policy
of strategic patience right waiting
patiently to see if the sanctions will
force North Korea back to the table and
and so I think that's a
horrible uh name for a policy first of
all but and I don't think it's entirely
right I think the Obama Administration
has tried on numerous occasions to reach
out to North Korea just as they did with
Iran and Cuba and Burma the problem
right now is not that the United States
is unwilling the problem is the North
Koreans are not interested how have
these Dynamics changed between Kim
Jong-un and his his father Kim Jong-il
what's changed Kim Jong-un moves around
with his wife which you know neither his
father nor his grandfather did in terms
of public appearances sort of like the
first
of North Korea a lot of focus on
consumer
entertainment uh building ski resorts
playing basketball with Dennis Rodman
these sorts of things at the same time
there's really been no sign of economic
reform serious economic reform under his
leadership which many people thought
would happen because he had been
educated outside of North Korea studied
you know in Europe and people thought
that he might be more an enlightened
leader when it came to the economic side
but there's no sign of that at all and
in terms of the politics it's becoming
much more rigid I've referred to it as
sort of it's sort of a Revival of sort
of a very conservative ideology that
existed when his grandfather was running
the country at the height of the Cold
War the predominant Theory when he first
took power after his father had a heart
attack was that he would be surrounded
by a group of Elders who would help him
to make decisions because he's such a
young in inexperienced leader so what
we've seen since then is that he did
that for a little bit and then he's been
slowly moving all of those uh Elders out
um sometimes in not so nice ways as he
had his uncle even his own Uncle
executed um since then there have been
about 90 some purges of high level
officials in under Kim Jong-un people
tend to overlook the fact that there are
North Koreans who live in China this is
a big consideration for China too and
that they don't want North Korean to
collapse so all of these people come
flooding across the border is that
partly why China has agreed to return
these these people back to North Korea
what why do you think that is so I think
that's certainly part of the reason is
that you know China's just uncomfortable
with these sort of homogeneous ethnic
autonomous
provinces that might then be somehow
supplemented by 3 million new Koreans
moving into the areas the the other is
something that with something people
don't focus on as much which is that the
refugee flow is not just a flow of
hungry people it's also a flow of
potential pandemics into China right
we're talking about North Korea malale
nurse population which makes them much
more susceptible to disease and a broken
health system so the danger I think the
Chinese feel is not just that these
people are all flowing into gin Province
but that many of them could be carrying
pandemics you know small poox still
exists in North Korea there is a drug
resistance strain of tuberculosis that
is still in North Korea and who knows
what else and so I think that worries
them a a great deal too you know North
Korea I think quite frankly is one
pandemic away from collapse because they
do not have the health system to deal
with it and this is very much evident in
the way they respond every time there's
an out bre of something in the area
whether it's SARS Mars this past summer
the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in
South Korea um you can see that the
North koreen State responds in they go
into almost panic mode and try to shut
down the country
completely what's overlooked when it
comes to to North Korea what aren't
people talking about that they should be
I think
unification you know I think many people
look at the crane Peninsula and they see
you know a divided country a good good
North a good Korea and a bad Korea but
what they don't understand is that this
is an aberration in history that for
thousands of years this has been one
country one people and they've just been
divided arbitrarily the North Korean
people are poor and uneducated and
starving not by choice um they are
ethnically the same people as the South
Koreans which are one of the most
successful countries and peoples in the
world I study politics and what people
don't understand is that the Ken
Peninsula is an example of what politics
can do to people you know the 12th
largest economy the most wired country
in the world per household in the South
and then in the north just an absolute
basket case and the only thing that
explains this difference is politics and
I think people forget that
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