JOHN HARWOOD AND JESSICA LEVINSON, THANK YOU BOTH FOR
JOINING US.
JOINING US. I WANT TO TURN TO THAT OTHER
BOMBSHELL NEWS.
BOMBSHELL NEWS. PAUL MANAFORT GUILTY, CONVICTED
ON EIGHT COUNTS INCLUDING FALSE
TAX RETURNS, FAILING TO FILE
FOREIGN BANK ACCOUNT REPORTS AND
TWO COUNTS OF BANK FRAUD.
THE JUDGE DECLARING A MISTRIAL
IN THE REMAINING TEN COUNTS.
TRUMP CHOOSING TO TALK ABOUT
MANAFORT BUT NOT COHEN.
>> PAUL MANAFORT’S A GOOD MAN.
HE WAS WITH RONALD REAGAN.
HE WAS WITH A LOT OF DIFFERENT
PEOPLE OVER THE YEARS.
AND I FEEL VERY SAD ABOUT THAT.
BECAUSE IT INVOLVED ME, BUT I
STILL FEEL, YOU KNOW, IT’S A
VERY SAD THING THAPDS.T HAPPENED
THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH
RUSSIAN COLLUSION.
RUSSIAN COLLUSION. >> TY IS A FEDERAL PROSECUTOR
AND JUSTICE LAWYER WHERE SHE
WORKED FOR ROD ROSENSTEIN.
SETH WAX MAN IS A FORMER FEDERAL
PROSECUTOR.
PROSECUTOR. TY, LET ME JUST ASK YOU, AT THIS
POINT WHAT’S THE SIGNAL THAT YOU
READ INTO DONALD TRUMP SAYING
WHAT HE SAID ABOUT WHAT A GREAT
GUY MANAFORT IS AND HOW HE
WORKED FOR REAGAN AND BOB DOLE
AND IT’S TERRIFIC AND IT’S AWFUL
WHAT’S HAPPENING TO HIM?
IS THAT A SIGNAL TO MANAFORT,
HIS LEGAL TEAM, DON’T FOLD?
>> WELL, I MEAN, IT COULD BE
LOOKED AT THAT WAY, BUT I THINK
THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING
WHAT HE’S ALWAYS BEEN DOING,
WHICH IS TO DISTANCE HIMSELF
ENTIRELY FROM WHATEVER HE CAN.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CONVICTION
FOR PAUL MANAFORT.
EVEN THOUGH THERE’S A NUMBER OF
MISTRIALS, THE SIGNIFICANCE OF
THE CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS ARE
LARGE, AND SO JUST TO DISTANCE
HIMSELF FROM SOMEONE WHO HAS
JUST BEEN CONVICTED OF VERY
SERIOUS CRIMES IS WHAT IT LOOKS
LIKE HE’S DOING.
>> SETH, TALK TO ME ABOUT THE
MISTRIALS VERSUS THE
CONVICTIONS.
CONVICTIONS. THERE WERE NO ACQUITTALS.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN THE
CONTEXT OF THIS TRIAL AND ITS
SUCCESS?
SUCCESS? >> YEAH, I MEAN, YOU CAN’T LOOK
AT THIS AS ANYTHING BUT A
SWEEPING VICTORY FOR THE
PROSECUTION.
PROSECUTION. TO GET SOMEONE ON SERIOUS BANK
FRAUD, TAX EVASION CHARGES,
MR. MANAFORT WILL BE FACING
ESSENTIALLY A LIFE SENTENCE
GIVEN HIS AGE.
WHETHER THAT’S 11 YEARS OR 15
YEARS, THE JUDGE WILL HAVE A
DECISION WHETHER TO STACK THOSE
CRIMES IN SENTENCING.
THE KEY POINT TO ALL OF THIS MAY
BE WHEN THE SMOKE CLEARS, IS
PAUL MANAFORT GOING TO
COOPERATE?
COOPERATE? IS HE GOING TO WALK INTO
MUELLER’S OFFICE, SAY, YOU GOT
ME, I NEED A DEAL NOW.
THEN OF COURSE THE X FACTOR
THAT’S VERY DIFFICULT FOR ALL OF
US TO ANSWER IS THE PRESIDENT
GOING TO ISSUE A PARDON.
>> TY, I’M JUST LOOKING AT
E-MAILS -- TWEETS FROM LINDSEY
GRAHAM THAT CAME OUT A LITTLE
WHILE AGO WHERE HE SAID THE
AMERICAN LEGAL SYSTEM IS WORKING
ITS WILL IN BOTH THE PAUL
MANAFORT AND MICHAEL COHEN
CASES.
CASES. THUS FAR THERE HAVE YET TO BE
ANY CHARGES OR CONVICTIONS FOR
COLLUDING WITH THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT BY ANY MEMBER OF THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN IN THE 2016
ELECTION.
ELECTION. SO SOMEBODY IS HOLDING OUT HOPE
THAT THIS ISN’T CONNECTED.
>> WELL, I MEAN, I’M SURE
THERE’S PLENTY OF PEOPLE WHO ARE
HOLDING OUT HOPE THAT THIS ISN’T
CONNECTED.
CONNECTED. BUT I THINK JUDGE ELLIS SAID IT
BEST.
BEST. I MEAN, IT’S VERY ROUTINE IN AN
INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION TO
PUT PRESSURE ON PEOPLE TO DO
WHAT SETH WAS JUST TALKING
ABOUT, COOPERATING.
ABOUT, COOPERATING. NOW MR. MANAFORT IS ABSOLUTELY
LOOKING AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT
JAIL TIME AND HE’S GOING TO HAVE
TO MAKE SOME REALLY DIFFICULT
DECISIONS.
DECISIONS. >> ALL RIGHT.
LET ME ASK YOU, MEGAN, WHAT YOU
THINK, WHAT YOU’RE EXPECTING.
WE SAW THE FIRST RESPONSE FROM A
SENATOR.
SENATOR. DO YOU THINK THIS TURNS YET OR
DO YOU THINK EVERYBODY IS GOING
TO KEEP --
>> I THINK WE’RE ALL GOING TO BE
WATCHING.
WATCHING. THIS REALLY FEELS LIKE ONE OF
THE MORE REMARKABLE DAYS OF THE
TRUMP PRESIDENCY, WHICH IS
SAYING A LOT.
>> FILLED WITH REMARKABLE
THINGS.
THINGS. >> WHICH IS SAYING A LOT.
TO GO BACK TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT,
IT’S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE --
RIGHT NOW IT’S NOT CONNECTED TO
THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION, BUT
IT’S CLEAR THAT IF COHEN WERE TO
PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION TO
MUELLER THAT THAT COULD, IN
FACT, AFFECT HIS SENTENCE.
AND I THINK THAT’S ANOTHER THING
THAT THERE’S GOING TO -- YOU
KNOW, TO BE WATCHING AS WE MOVE
FORWARD.
FORWARD. RIGHT NOW HE’S LOOKING AT 43 TO
64 MONTHS IN THAT CATEGORY.
THAT’S WHAT THE GUIDELINES SAY.
HE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT GETTING A
REDUCED SENTENCE IF HE’S ABLE --
>> HE WOULD NOT PLEAD TO THAT
WITHOUT A COOPERATION AGREEMENT.
NORMALLY I DO THESE ALL THE TIME
IN THE CRIMINAL PRACTICE.
YOU GET A COOPERATION AGREEMENT
THAT’S UNDER SEAL AND YOU HAVE A
PLEA AGREEMENT LIKE YOU HAVE
HERE THAT’S PUBLIC.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> SO I WOULD BET ANYTHING THERE
IS A COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH
MUELLER’S OFFICE AND HE’S
LOOKING TO BRING DOWN THAT
SENTENCE, WHICH THE JUDGE CAN
BRING DOWN TO ZERO IF HE WANTS
UNDER ENOUGH COOPERATION.
I DON’T THINK HE’LL EVER PLEAD
GUILTY TO ANYTHING APPROACHING 5
OR 6 YEARS WITHOUT A COOPERATION
AGREEMENT.
AGREEMENT. >> LET ME BRING NATASHA BERTRAND
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
SHE WAS IN THE MANAFORT
COURTROOM TODAY.
COURTROOM TODAY. WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS WITH
THAT?
THAT? WE HAVE TO REMEMBER, MANAFORT
HAS A WHOLE ’NOTHER TRIAL COMING
UP.
UP. THE SENSE WAS REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS IN THIS TRIAL, THE
GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO BE ABLE
TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON HIM.
DO YOU THINK HE HEADS INTO THAT
OTHER TRIAL GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY, OR DO YOU THINK HE STARTS
TO THINK OF EITHER FIGURING OUT
WHETHER HE’S GETTING A PARDON OR
FIGURING OUT WHETHER HE HAS TO
SING LIKE A BIRD ABOUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN TRUMP TOWER AND
OTHER THINGS HAVING TO DO WITH
THE RUSSIANS?
THE RUSSIANS? >> I THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
HE CHOOSES TO COOPERATE WITH
MUELLER NOW THAT HE FACES SO
MUCH PRISON TIME, HAVING BEEN
CONVICTED ON EIGHT COUNTS.
IT WAS SOMEWHAT OF A SURPRISE
THAT HE WAS FOUND -- THAT THE
JURY COULD NOT COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON TEN COUNTS WHEN THE
JURY GAVE A NOTE TO THE JUDGE
SAYING THAT THEY COULD NOT REACH
A CONSENSUS ON ONE COUNT.
EVERYONE IN THE COURTROOM KIND
OF ASSUMED IT MEANT ONE COUNT
AND THEY WOULD REACH A CONSENSUS
ON THE OTHER 17.
YOU COULD SEE THAT IS SOMEWHAT
OF A SMALL VICTORY FOR THE
DEFENSE.
DEFENSE. THIS WAS REALLY A SWEEPING
SUCCESS FOR THE PROSECUTION.
WE HAVE TO REMEMBER MUELLER’S
TEAM ALREADY SAID THEY HAVE
THREE TIMES AS MUCH EVIDENCE FOR
THE SEPTEMBER TRIAL AS THEY DID
FOR THIS TRIAL, OVER A THOUSAND
PIECES OF EVIDENCE VERSUS JUST
UNDER 300 FOR THIS TRIAL.
SO THERE IS DEFINITELY AN
INCENTIVE FOR PAUL MANAFORT TO
WORK WITH THE GOVERNMENT NOW,
NOW THAT HE’S SEEN A JURY IS
WILLING TO CONVICT HIM ON
CHARGES LIKE THESE.
BUT I WOULD ALSO NOT HOMELAND
OUR BREATH
OUR BREATH HOLD OUR BREATH BECAUSE NO ONE
THOUGHT MANAFORT COULD GO TO
THIS TRIAL EITHER.
>> TY, A LOT OF THIS CASE WAS
DOCUMENTARY AND PAPER TRAIL-Y.
THE FACT IS THESE COMPLICATED
CASES ARE HARD FOR JURIES
BECAUSE PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND
THE TERMS THAT ARE IN THEM.
IS THAT SECOND TRIAL GOING TO BE
EASIER FOR THE GOVERNMENT?
DOES PAUL MANAFORT GET TO THINK,
ALL RIGHT, IF THEY GOT ME ON
EIGHT CHARGES HERE, I’M IN
TROUBLE IN THE NEXT ONE?
>> I THINK WHAT PAUL MANAFORT’S
TEAM IS LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW AND
NOTICING IS THAT THE JURY DIDN’T
CONVICT ON ANY OF THE CONSPIRACY
TO COMMIT BANK FRAUD CHARGES.
SO OUT OF ALL THE BANK FRAUD
CHARGES, THE JURY ONLY CAME TO A
GUILTY VERDICT ON TWO OF THEM
AND HAD A MISTRIAL ON ALL THE
CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT BANK FRAUD.
THAT COULD BE SOMETHING THAT THE
MUELLER TEAM NEEDS TO FOCUS ON
WHICH IS, CAN WE RELY ON GATES?
THE JURY COULD HAVE BEEN
SIGNALLING, WE’RE NOT GOING TO
CONVICT ON SOMETHING WE NEED TO
BELIEVE GATES ON, SO YOU MAY SEE
MUELLER’S TEAM SHUFFLING TO
FIGURE OUT WHICH OF THEIR
COUNTS, WHICH OF THEIR EVIDENCE
THEY CAN SURE UP WITHOUT NEEDING
GATES.
GATES. >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. SO, SETH, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT
THIS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE NICK
GAVE US, THE REAL PRIZE IS GOING
TO BE RUSSIA, NOT THE PAYOFF TO
STORMY DANIELS OR KAREN M
McDOUGAL.
McDOUGAL. DOES THE PROSECUTION IN
MANAFORT -- DO THEY GET -- DO
THEY TIE HIM TO IT IN THE SECOND
TRIAL?
TRIAL? ARE THEY ABLE TO DO THAT?
BECAUSE IT’S STILL CONSPIRACY TO
DEFRAUD THE UNITED STATES TRIAL.
>> YEAH, I THINK IT’S GOING TO
BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE SAW IN
ALEXANDRIA.
ALEXANDRIA. RUSSIA WILL BE IN THE
BACKGROUND.
BACKGROUND. CONSPIRACIES DON’T JUST DROP OUT
OF THE SKY IN SPRING OF 2016.
THERE IS A BACK STORY TO ALL
CONSPIRACIES.
CONSPIRACIES. SO MANAFORT’S INTERACTIONS WITH
THE RUSSIANS TO THE EXTENT THERE
WERE FOREIGN ACCOUNTS RELATED IN
THE D.C. TRIAL IN THE FALL,
THERE WILL BE SOME DISCUSSION
ABOUT THAT, BUT I THINK VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ALEXANDRIA TRIAL,
IT WILL BE KIND OF A
STRAIGHTFORWARD WHITE COLLAR
CRIMINAL PROSECUTION THAT WILL
BE DOCUMENT BASED, MAYBE A
COOPERATE ERROR TWO SPRINKLED IN
HERE OR THERE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT
CASE IS GOING TO TAKE PLACE, IS
MR. MANAFORT GOING TO WALK IN
AND SAY, RIGHT NOW I’M FACING
TEN YEARS, THAT’S TANTAMOUNT TO
A LIFE SENTENCE ESSENTIALLY.
THE PARDON IS THE X FACTOR.
>> SO, NATASHA, AGAIN, I’M
KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR TWEETS
AND COMMENTS FROM REPUBLICANS ON
THE SENATOR CORNYN OF TEXAS HAS
SAID, I DON’T THINK THIS
IMPLICATES HIM AT ALL,
PARTICULARLY ON THE RUSSIA
INVESTIGATION.
INVESTIGATION. AGAIN, THE PATTERN CONTINUES OF
REPUBLICANS NOT BEING ABLE TO
FACE FACTS THAT THIS PRESIDENT
HAS BEEN DISHONEST ON SO MANY
FRONTS AND IN THIS CASE THIS HAS
NOW BEEN SOMETHING THAT HE’S
BEEN DISHONEST ABOUT WHILE
PRESIDENT, NOT JUST IN THE
CAMPAIGN.
CAMPAIGN. HE’S NOW BEEN NAMED WHETHER IT’S
LEGALLY IMPORTANT OR NOT, HE’S
BEEN NAMED AS THE OTHERIDE OF
A CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FRAUD ON
AN ELECTION.
AN ELECTION. IT DOESN’T SEEM TO MOVE
REPUBLICANS.
REPUBLICANS. >> NO, NOT AT ALL.
AND YOU’RE SEEING A FEW KIND OF
NEVER-TRUMP REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE
BEEN WARY IN THE PAST OF SAYING
THE PRESIDENT SHOULD POTENTIALLY
BE IMPEACHED OR IMPEACHMENT IS A
REMEDY FOR THIS.
NOW THEY’RE SAYING, NOW THAT
HE’S BEEN NAMED AS A POTENTIAL
COCONSPIRATOR IN THIS KIND OF
ELECTION FRAUD, MAYBE IT IS TIME
TO START CONSIDERING THAT AS A
POSSIBILITY.
POSSIBILITY. LIKE DEMOCRATS, FOR EXAMPLE,
SHOULD START VOCALIZING THAT
MORE.
MORE. BUT NO, REPUBLICANS BY AND LARGE
ARE SAYING THAT THE MANAFORT
TRIAL, FOR EXAMPLE, DOES NOT
HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIAN
ELECTION INTERFERENCE, THAT
NEITHER DOES COHEN AND OF COURSE
THAT’S JUST NOT TRUE WITH REGARD
TO THE MANAFORT TRIAL.
AGAINST THE BACKDROP, JUST LIKE
SETH SAID, IS ALL OF THE WORK
THAT MANAFORT DID FOR
PRO-RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS IN UKRAINE
AND HIS ATTEMPTS TO COVER THAT
UP WHILE HE WAS WORKING ON THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN AND OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DECADE, OF COURSE,
THAT HE WAS WORKING FOR THE
PRO-RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT AND
UKRAINE.
UKRAINE. IT’S MORE ABOUT READING BETWEEN
THE LINES HERE, BUT I THINK IT’S
SAFE TO SAY REPUBLICANS ARE NOT
GOING TO ABANDON THE PRESIDENT
ANY TIME SOON.
>> MEGAN, THERE IS A LITTLE BIT
OF AN ACHILLES HEEL HERE FOR THE
PRESIDENT.
PRESIDENT. IN JULY WHEN WE STARTED TO HEAR
THAT MICHAEL COHEN MIGHT TALK
ABOUT KNOWING THAT DONALD TRUMP
KNEW ABOUT THE TRUMP TOWER
MEETING, I THINK IT WAS JUMP 26
OR 27, THE PRESIDENT TWEETED IN
DEFENSE OF HIS SON.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> I’M REALLY WORRIED ABOUT DON
JUNIOR AND WHAT’S GOING DO
HAPPEN.
HAPPEN. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE SOFT SPOT
HERE.
HERE. WE KNOW DON JUNIOR WAS IN THAT
MEETING WITH PAUL MANAFORT AND A
WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE.
WE SEEM TO HAVE DISCOVERED, AS
EVERY LAYER OF THAT ONION IS
PEELED BACK, THEY’RE ALL LYING
ABOUT IT.
ABOUT IT. >> THERE HAD ALSO BEEN
SUGGESTIONS THAT COHEN HIMSELF
HAD INFORMATION ABOUT THAT
MEETING AND TRUMP’S KNOWLEDGE OF
IT.
IT. I THINK WE DON’T -- WE STILL
DON’T KNOW WHAT COHEN HAS THAT
COULD BE OF VALUE TO MUELLER AND
HIS INVESTIGATION.
HIS INVESTIGATION. BUT TO GO BACK TO -- IT IS
IMPORTANT TO SORT OF ACKNOWLEDGE
THAT WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IN
THESE TWO CASES DOES NOT
IMPLICATE TRUMP IN RUSSIAN
COLLUSION.
COLLUSION. SO I ALSO THINK WHAT WE’RE
SEEING IN SOME OF THESE
POLITICAL STATEMENTS THAT ARE
COMING OUT, THE STATEMENTS THAT
ARE COMING OUT FROM REPUBLICANS
IS THAT IT SOUNDS LIKE WE MAY BE
GETTING A PREVIEW OF THE
RESPONSE TO TODAY, THAT THEY’RE
GOING TO SAY, YOU KNOW, THEY’RE
GOING TO REPEAT THIS LINE THAT
THIS DOESN’T IMPLICATE TRUMP IN
RUSSIA COLLUSION WHILE IGNORING
THE FACT HE IS FOR THE FIRST
TIME BEING IMPLICATED IN
CRIMINAL CAMPAIGN FINANCE
VIOLATIONS, YEAH, EXACTLY.