LIZ: ALL RIGHT.
WE'RE GETTING THIS BREAKING NEWS
FROM SKY NEWS.
SKY NEWS REPORTING THAT IN
EXACTLY 26 MINUTES, THAT FINAL
TALLY IN THE UK PRIME MINISTER
NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE WILL BE
REVEALED.
26 MINUTES AND COUNTING.
THERESA MAY WAITING AND WATCHING
IN LONDON AS MEMBERS OF HER OWN
CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTE ON
WHETHER THEY BELIEVE SHE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN THE COUNTRY.
LET'S BRING IN STUART EISENSTAT,
FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE
EUROPEAN UNION, AND THIS ALL
SURROUNDS THE WHOLE MOVEMENT
WHERE THE PEOPLE OF THE UK VOTED
TO EXIT THE EUROPEAN UNION, AND
NOW AS SHE PUTS TOGETHER A
BREXIT DEAL, WHERE AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN IRISH BORDER WOULD BE
OPEN TO TRADE, THEY DON'T SEEM
TO LIKE IT.
WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS IN
THIS VOTE?
>> FIRST, I HAVE EVERY
CONFIDENCE THAT SHE WILL WIN THE
CONFIDENCE VOTE, BUT THAT ONLY
POSTPONES THE MAJOR VOTE, WHICH
SHE HAD TO PULL BACK AND THAT IS
OVER THE ACTUAL EXIT PLAN.
IF I MAY EXPLAIN, THIS ALL
RELATES TO WHAT'S CALLED THE
IRISH PROBLEM.
IN ORDER TO SETTLE THE
DECADES-LONG SECTARIAN BATTLE
WITHIN NORTHERN IRELAND WHICH IS
PART OF THE UNITED KINGDOM
BETWEEN CATHOLICS AND
PROTESTANTS, THE GOOD FRIDAY
AGREEMENT REACHED BY FORMER
SENATOR GEORGE MITCHELL IN THE
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION CREATED
OPEN BORDERS BETWEEN NORTHERN
IRELAND, PART OF THE UK, AND THE
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, AND THAT
HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT TO
KEEP THE PEACE.
IT'S MEANT THE FREE FLOW OVER
DOZENS AND DOZENS OF CHECKPOINTS
OF GOODS AND SERVICES AND OF
PEOPLE.
THE PROBLEM IS IF BREXIT
SUCCEEDS, SINCE NORTHERN IRELAND
IS PART OF THE UNITED KINGDOM,
THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION, AND SO THE IRISH BACKSTOP
PLAN HAS BEEN CREATED IN WHICH,
FOR A TRANSITION PERIOD, THOSE
BORDERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OPEN, ALLOWING THE FREE FLOW OF
PEOPLE AND GOODS.
THERESA MAY SAYS THAT CAN'T LAST
FOREVER AND THE HARD LINE
BREXITEERS SAY IF WE POSTPONE
THIS FOR TOO LONG, WE WILL
ALWAYS KEEP THIS.
SO THAT'S WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT.
THAT'S WHY SHE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE
TO EVEN CALL FOR A VOTE, BECAUSE
THE PLAN SHE REACHED INCLUDES
THIS IRISH BACKSTOP.
LIZ: WE KNOW MARKETS HATE
UNCERTAINTY AND AS A BUSINESS
NETWORK, WE SAW THE OTHER DAY
WHEN WORD CAME THAT SHE WOULD
FACE THIS NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE, WE
SAW THE MARKETS SHAKE AND
SHIVER.
RIGHT NOW, WE ARE HIGHER ON
DECENT TRADE NEWS THAT WE
BELIEVE WILL BRING US CLOSER TO
A THAW IN THE RELATIONS BETWEEN
THE U.S. AND CHINA.
RIGHT NOW THE DOW UP 243.
I WANT EVERYBODY TO NOTE THAT
BECAUSE NOW IT'S ABOUT 24
MINUTES AWAY FROM THE
ANNOUNCEMENT ON THE OUTCOME OF
THAT VOTE.
WHAT DO YOU SUSPECT WILL BE THE
REACTION HERE IN THE UNITED
STATES?
DO YOU THINK THAT IF SHE DOES
REMAIN AS THE LEADER, THAT THAT
GIVES THE MARKET CERTAINTY, IT
GIVES POLITICS CERTAINTY, BUT IF
SHE GETS BOOTED, THAT BECOMES A
HUGE PROBLEM, DOES IT NOT?
>> ABSOLUTELY, IF SHE'S BOOTED,
BUT DON'T OVERREAD IF SHE WINS
TODAY.
YES, THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY
BOOST IN CONFIDENCE, BUT SHE
STILL HAS THE MORE BASIC VOTE OF
HER OWN EXIT PLAN THAT SHE'S
NEGOTIATED WITH THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
SHE DID A SPEED TRIP THROUGH
EUROPE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS TO TRY AND IMPROVE IT TO
HELP HER CHANCES OF GETTING THE
ULTIMATE VOTE DONE ON THE
DIVORCE PLAN, THE EXIT PLAN,
WHICH HAS TO BE DONE BY MARCH
29th, AND THE EU SAID NO, WE
HAVE ALREADY NEGOTIATED IT,
NOTHING MORE.
LIZ: IF, AMBASSADOR, THE HARD
BREXIT GOES THROUGH SOMEHOW AND
IT'S JUST A COMPLETE CLEAN
BREAK, LOT OF PEOPLE ARE CALLING
FOR THAT, LIKE BORIS JOHNSON,
WHO PROBABLY IS ANGLING TO BE
THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER, IF HE
COULD ACTUALLY CALL IT.
IF THERE'S A CLEAN BREAK AND
SUDDENLY, THERE'S MAYHEM,
ALTHOUGH SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT'S
SCARE TACTICS, THAT IT WILL BE
FINE, BUT LET'S SAY THERE IS
MAYHEM AND THEY START BEGGING
WAIT A MINUTE, WAIT A MINUTE,
SUDDENLY THERESA MAY'S PLAN IS
STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD,
WILL THE EUROPEAN UNION SAY
OKAY, WE'LL REVISIT THAT?
>> THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT
GOING TO MAKE ANY MORE
CONCESSIONS.
IF THERE'S A HARD BREXIT,
MEANING THAT THEY PULL OUT
WITHOUT AN AGREEMENT, WITHOUT
STAYING IN THE CUSTOMS UNION,
WITHOUT HAVING FREE ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN MARKET, THIS WILL
BE A CATASTROPHIC PROBLEM FOR
THE UK IN TERMS OF ITS ECONOMY.
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND BANKS
WHICH ARE THE BACKBONE OF THE
ECONOMY IN LONDON, WILL START
GOING EVEN MORE TO NEW YORK AND
TO FRANKFURT BECAUSE THEY WON'T
HAVE THE SO-CALLED SINGLE FRANC
PASSPORT.
EXPERTS ESTIMATE THIS COULD
CAUSE A 2% TO 3% DROP IN THE
WHOLE UK ECONOMY.
I THINK BECAUSE OF THAT, AT THE
END OF THE DAY, I BELIEVE THERE
WON'T BE A HARD BREXIT.
IT MAY TAKE TIME BUT I THINK
THAT SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES
OF WHAT SHE PROPOSED EVEN THOUGH
IT DOESN'T HAVE THE VOTES TODAY,
WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE SOLUTION.
WE COULD CALL IT THE NORWAY
SOLUTION WHERE THEY STAY IN THE
CUSTOMS UNION BUT THEY DON'T
HAVE TO ACCEPT ANY PEOPLE COMING
FROM CONTINENTAL EUROPE.
LIZ: AS WE KEEP AN EYE ON THE
LIVE PICTURE OF PARLIAMENT,
WHERE ONCE AGAIN, NOW IT'S ABOUT
21 MINUTES FROM THE TIME THAT WE
EXPECT TO GET THE NEWS AS TO
WHETHER THERESA MAY HAS SURVIVED
THAT NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE, I DID
WANT TO GET YOUR COMMENT ON THIS
MANHUNT THAT'S RIGHT NOW STILL
UNDER WAY AT THIS HOUR FOR THE
GUNMAN WHO KILLED AT LEAST TWO
PEOPLE, WOUNDED 14 OTHERS IN A
CHRISTMAS MARKET IN STRASBOURG,
FRANCE.
FRANCE HAS DECLARED THE ATTACK
AN ATTACK OF TERRORISM, AND NOW
IT'S NOT JUST THERESA MAY FACING
A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE.
FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON
ALREADY WRACKED WITH THE RIOTS,
THE YELLOW VEST RIOTS WE HAVE
SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, HE
WILL FACE A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE
TOMORROW.
IT'S NEGLIGIBLE, THE CHANCE HE
WOULD BE OUSTED, BUT HOW DOES HE
GAIN CONTROL OF THIS COUNTRY
AGAIN?
>> SO HAVING BEEN AMBASSADOR TO
THE EU, OF COURSE I SPENT A LOT
OF TIME IN FRANCE THEN AND NOW,
AND THIS IS A GENUINE CRISIS.
NOT THAT HE'S GOING TO LOSE A
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
HE HAS AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
OF HIS OWN PARTY IN THE FRENCH
PARLIAMENT.
BUT AS HIS STATEMENT YESTERDAY
INDICATED, HE HAS LOST TOUCH
WITH THE COMMON PEOPLE, WITH THE
AVERAGE PEOPLE.
HE DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THE EXTENT
TO WHICH HIS TAX CUTS, WHICH
WERE BENEFITING ONLY THE PEOPLE
AT THE TOP, THAT HE WAS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH THE PEOPLE IN THE
MIDDLE AND IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND SMALL TOWNS, AND YESTERDAY,
HE BEGAN THE PROCESS OF REACHING
OUT TO THEM BUT ONLY BELATEDLY.
HE'S GOT A LOT OF GROUND TO
COVER TO SHOW THAT HE'S NOT
SIMPLY THERE FOR THE
CORPORATIONS AND THE WEALTHY,
THAT HE UNDERSTANDS THE PAIN OF
THOSE IN THE MIDDLE CLASS AND
WORKING CLASS.
THAT'S NOT A NATURAL THING FOR
HIM.
HE'S GOT TO DO AN ABOUT-FACE AND
HIS PARTY KNOWS THAT HE DOES.
IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF LOSING A
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
IT'S REALLY LOSING THE
CONFIDENCE MORE GENERALLY OF THE
PUBLIC AND HIS CAPACITY TO
GOVERN.
HE HAS A REAL CRISIS ON HIS
HANDS.
LIZ: AMBASSADOR STUART