In this post, I hope to offer a number of predictions of our society in the year 2050.
That’s only 34 years away – well within many of our lifetimes.
I’d like to do this by comparing what or society was like 34 years ago, so lets start
with a brief history lesson.
History Lesson – 1982 to Present
Computers
34 years ago, I was only a toddler running about, so didn’t have much interest in technology.
But 1982 was a big year for computing.
It was the year personal computers really started to kick off.
A few notable computers that were released that year include the Australian MicroBee,
the British Sinclair ZX Spectrum, and the popular North American Commodore 64.
During the 80s, I don’t remember many people using computers, except maybe in big companies.
It wasn’t really until the late 80s to early 90s that I recall using computers at people’s
homes.
I remember in about grade 5, around 1989, my friend’s family had bought their first
computer.
I think it was a secondhand Commodore VIC-20.
I loved using that thing!
I spent hours on it creating programs in BASIC.
My parents bought me a computer programming book and I spent most of my holidays writing
mock programs using pencil and paper.
Internet
The next big breakthrough was the Internet.
I remember in about grade 11, around 1995, first seeing the Internet at my school.
It was a bit of a gimmicky thing at the time, and I don’t remember anybody using it very
much except to look up their favourite band.
Most people stuck to buying their weekly magazine to get all their music news.
In 1996, my family first connected to the Internet.
I loved it.
I used to dial-up the old modem and jump into chat groups, chatting with people from all
over the globe.
Mobile Phones and Digital Cameras
During my uni days (1997 to 2000), mobile phones started to become popular, although
most of my friends didn’t use them because they couldn’t see the point.
I was in the same boat.
I thought they were a waste of money, so didn’t bother getting one.
Digital cameras were also starting to spark interest among consumers, but most professionals
wrote them off saying things like, “The quality will never be as good as film”.
I remember applying for a job in Japan which required a digital photo of me.
I didn’t know anybody who owned a digital camera, so I ended up paying a researcher
out at uni $7.00 for the privilege!
It wasn’t until 2001, the year that I first moved to Japan, that I realised the benefit
of mobile phones and digital cameras.
Almost EVERYBODY in Japan had a mobile phone.
They were small, light, and dirt-cheap to use.
I remember text messages only costing 2 yen (about 2 cents) and calls were cheap too.
SMS in Australia were at least 25 cents each at the time.
Not only could you make calls, you could use the Internet!
It wasn’t expensive either.
I guess you could say that Japan had the first mass-market smartphones.
Basically, to live in Japan, you had to own a mobile phone.
It was the main form of communication for many people and it was cheap, so why not?
I figured that I could start documenting my Japanese life, so I bought my first digital
camera in Japan, a Sony Cyber-shot.
It wasn’t cheap, but it was great!
I started taking basic videos and heaps of pictures.
I could resize the photos and send them via email to my friends and family.
I eventually made a very basic website to share my pictures online.
I guess it was like a primitive Facebook.
The Internet in Japan was also fast and cheap.
In 2005, for like $30 a month, I had a super-fast (12 Mbps) ADSL Internet connection.
I only have that speed now in Australia, and it’s 2016!
Of course I could pay more to get faster speeds, but I simply don’t need anything faster
at this stage.
Online Videos
Around 2005 or 2006, YouTube was becoming popular.
It was the first time we could start watching and posting videos on the Internet.
Everyone was taking videos with their digital cameras and uploading them to the net.
My friends in Australia were still behind the times and didn’t even bother to check
their emails regularly, let alone buy a digital camera.
Smartphones
When I came back to Australia in 2006, it seemed like everybody had a mobile phone.
Compared with the Japanese models I had become accustomed to, the Australian ones were all
clunky and expensive.
I very rarely rang anybody and only sometimes sent a text message.
It wasn’t until 2007 that the first modern day smartphone came into existence, the Apple
iPhone.
It was expensive, but was a huge success.
Nowadays, who doesn’t carry around a smartphone in the developed world?
But what exactly is a smartphone?
Think about it.
People are carrying around a device that lets them talk to anybody in the world, play any
game, listen to any song, watch any video, take photos, record videos, and access all
of the world’s knowledge via the Internet!
Not only that, this device can fit into their pocket!
If I had said back in 1982 that a device that could do all these things will be in the hands
of millions of people within 30 years, people would have laughed at me.
I guess the point of this history lesson is to show how fast technology advances.
Even in my short life so much has changed.
Some would say that these changes could never have been predicted 34 years ago.
In 34 years time it will be 2050 and I’m sure society and technology will have advanced
beyond our wildest imagination.
So from here on I’m going to attempt to predict the future.
Money in 2050
Nowadays, many of us are using payWave or even our mobile phones to make purchases.
Cash is fast becoming a thing of the past.
I predict that by 2050, cash is no longer in use.
Why would it be?
It’s an added expense that society does not need.
I also predict that by 2050, due to unprecedented job losses caused by the rise of automation,
people will not longer have to “work” for their money, at least not in the traditional
sense.
A basic income, or similar, will probably be introduced in the next decade or so.
It will allow people to be able to purchase the basic necessities of life without fear
of poverty or starvation.
Another more radical prediction is that money may not even be needed at all.
Due to the automation of food production, costs will have plummeted.
Although we might go through a phase of basic income, ultimately governments will decide
that it’s in society’s best interests for citizens to be able to access food, water,
shelter, electricity and the Internet all without payment.
Just as most of us have a free email account nowadays (they weren’t always free), we
might also have free food and hot water.
Charging for these services might be seen as unethical.
They may even become human rights.
Communication in 2050
Just as many of us carry smartphones in 2016, by 2050 we will probably have access to a
device that is hundreds (or thousands) of times more powerful than modern day smartphones.
I imagine either some sort of strap that we wear on our wrist, or maybe even an implant
that is placed in our bodies.
Either way, we will have access to all of human knowledge at the drop of a hat.
If we don’t know how to solve a maths problem, we can immediately find out online with 100%
accuracy.
If we don’t know how to cook a particular meal, a 3D recipe will immediately appear
in our field of view.
When we go to the supermarket, the store will know who we are as we walk in the door and
start collecting items that we usually purchase.
If money still exists, purchases will automatically be deducted from our accounts as we leave
the store.
No need to go to a register as there probably won’t be any.
Our communication device will probably also monitor our health.
It will know when we are becoming ill and make the appropriate recommendations.
If we suffer a cardiac arrest, it will contact the nearest available paramedics.
If we get stuck in the woods, it will act as an emergency beacon.
Actually, these predictions are fairly conservative.
Our device probably will be able to do a lot more.
For example, it will probably be able to resuscitate us if we have a heart attack or stop breathing.
Transport in 2050
As I’ve hinted at in a previous post about sharing, the transport network will almost
certainly be fully automated.
People will no longer need to own cars as the transport network will be so efficient
that any time you need to go somewhere, a driverless vehicle will appear within a minute
or less.
Whether we have to pay for it or not – it doesn’t matter – it will still be a lot
cheaper than owning a private vehicle.
Long distance trips will still probably be performed by trains or aeroplanes, but again,
they will all be automated.
The number of vehicular accidents will be significantly less than with our current system.
Humans make errors, get tired, have hidden agendas, drink alcohol, etc.
A robotic train has no other purpose other than to get people from point A to B in the
safest, most comfortable way possible.
Nobody will miss the drivers or pilots, just as we don’t miss elevator attendants now.
Food Production in 2050
The food production network will be fully automated.
Driverless trucks will transport goods from automated vertical farms to distribution hubs,
which in turn are transported to supermarkets, restaurants and fast food outlets.
Fruit and vegetables will be grown all year round in a clean, safe environment.
Food will become so plentiful that famine will no longer be an issue in 2050.
Food will either be free, or extremely cheap.
Meat will no longer need to come from animals as it will be fully grown in labs.
Not only will it not require the death of an animal, it will taste exactly like the
real deal.
Employment in 2050
With the advent of artificial intelligence, I imagine many jobs will no longer be performed
by people.
The three D jobs (dirty, difficult, and demeaning) will all be performed by machines.
No longer will somebody have to deal with human excrement.
There will be drones that are perfectly capable of crawling or flying down into the sewer
to remove the blockage.
There will be no need for fast-food workers, cleaners, iron ore miners, wait staff, bricklayers,
or any other menial job, as all of them will be automated.
But it’s not just the three D jobs that will be automated.
Already in 2016, there is talk of AI taking over the role of doctors.
Not only will the AI have much more knowledge, it will be far more accurate than its human
counterpart.
Some argue that nothing can replace the personal touch of a human, but from many of the doctors
I have met, some of them are overworked, stressed, and aren’t very nice people to be around.
A robotic doctor that always acts kindly, can diagnose illnesses with 99.9% accuracy,
and knows exactly what treatment to prescribe, would be far more preferable than a tired,
stressed human doctor.
Leisure Time in 2050
So, what will people do with themselves?
I think the creative arts will be much harder to automate.
People will have much more free time to do things that they are really passionate about.
Let’s face it, nobody is passionate about climbing into a sewer and cleaning out the
muck inside.
People only do it nowadays because they are getting paid to do it.
Things like music, painting, acting, writing stories, 3D art, design, architecture, etc.
will be left in the hands of the humans.
Sure, there will be some computers composing symphonies and some robots acting in plays,
but I think humans will have the creative edge.
Many people in 2016 would love to give up their day job and create a board game or write
a novel, but they simply do not have the means to do so.
With the advent of automation in conjunction with a basic income or similar, people will
suddenly start living their lives again.
Volunteering will become the norm.
Although many of the jobs in aged-care facilities will become automated, there will still be
a need for people to come down and share a conversation over a cup of tea with the old
folk.
People will voluntarily go around to people’s homes and help prepare meals, or help out
around the house.
Why not?
There’s no need for them to worry about where their next paycheck is coming from.
Medicine in 2050
With the advent of 3D printing, almost all organs will be fully printable using the patient’s
DNA.
No longer will we have to worry about finding an organ donor or getting the “correct match”.
We will be able to print a new liver, kidney, or heart that exactly matches the person’s
body.
Tiny nanobots will be injected into people’s bodies that will actively seek out and destroy
cancer cells – rendering cancer a thing of the past.
Disease will become much less of an issue.
The idea of somebody dying from disease will become a thing we read about in history class.
Bring It On!
Between now and 2050, there seems to be an endless number of challenges.
Terrorism, drought, famine, greed, wealth inequality, racism, fanaticism, etc.
Furthermore, the elite simply do not want to give up their means of wealth.
For example, Johnson and Johnson created a machine called the Sedasys that would automate
the jobs of anaesthetists.
However, they didn’t expect anaesthetists to not give up their jobs without a fight.
The Sedasys would have brought down the cost of receiving an anaesthetic by abut 90%!
Anaesthetists are one of the highest-paid physicians and clearly had a vested interest
in not letting the Sedasys become mainstream.
But there is hope.
For every major social change throughout history, there have always been opponents and doomsayers.
The elite never want to give up their wealth and power, but ultimately, they can only hold
out for so long.
People will not put up with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer for much
longer.
Something has to give.
Already the elite are in defensive mode with the recent release of the Panama Papers.
The prime minister of Iceland even had to resign over the leak.
People will not put up with this global kleptocracy for much longer.
If even half my predictions come true, 2050 will be a much nicer place.
People will no longer grow up thinking that “greed is good”.
Children will learn the benefit of sharing and helping one’s neighbour.
Volunteering will become mainstream.
Food will be plentiful and famine will become a thing of the past.
No more will people have to worry, “Where will my next paycheck come from?”.
I say, “Bring it on!”.