AND PORTUGAL AND SPAIN AND
FRANCE AND YOU HAVE HEARD ALL OF
THEM, WHAT ARE IN FOR?
DEUTSCHE BANK PUT OUT AN IDEA
OVER AT GERMANY THAT MAYBE THERE
SHOULD BE A 5% WORK AT HOME TAX
FOR THE PLEASURE OF THOSE
WORKING AT HOME.
THOSE WORKING AT HOME WEREN’T
TOO KEEN ON THE IDEA.
BUT THAT WOULD BE ON TOP OF THE
TAXES THEY ARE ALREADY PAYING,
AND IF IT COMES HERE, WE ARE
ALREADY PAYING.
DEUTSCHE BANK APPARENTLY
CRUNCHES THE NUMBERS MEANING
THEY COULD UPWARDS OF 48 BILLION
DOLLARS A YEAR IN REMOVE FOR
WHICH GOVERNMENTS COULD DO A
VARIETY OF THINGS.
FOR INSTANCE, OPTIMAL CAPITAL
DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY, ROSE CLIP
FOUNDER, MANAGING PARTNER
JOINING US.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THIS
PROPOSAL, FRANCIS?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE
HISTORIC FISCAL DEFICITS, AND IT
IS NOT GOING TO GET ANY BETTER.
THE VIRUS IS GOING TO STICK
AROUND.
IT IS GOING TO COST US MONEY AND
WE NEED FISCAL STIMULUS.
HOWEVER THIS SORT OF PUNISHES
THE PEOPLE THAT ARE WORKING FROM
HOME.
YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT’S A
LITTLE BIT OF UNFAIR BECAUSE
THESE PEOPLE DID MAKE IT GO
RIGHT TO WORK FROM HOME WHICH IS
NOT EASY.
PEOPLE THINK IT IS A LUXURY.
IT IS NOT A LUXURY WHEN YOU HAVE
KIDS AND JACK RUSSELL TERRIERS
AND LIGHTING ISSUES AND
DIFFERENT ISSUES.
THEY MADE IT GO RIGHT SO THEY
DIDN’T HAVE TO COLLECT
UNEMPLOYMENT, AND SO, YOU KNOW,
TO THEN PUNISH THEM AFTER THE
FACT, AFTER THEY HAVE RELOCATED,
CHANGED HOUSES IN MANY RESPECTS,
IT IS REALLY TOUGH.
ALSO SOME OF THE TECH COMPANIES
SAYING THEY ARE GOING TO PAY
SALARIES COMMENSURATE TO WHERE
SOMEONE IS LIVING.
IF YOU ARE LIVING IDAHO AND
WORKING IN SILICON VALLEY, YOU
WILL GET A HIT THERE.
BY THE TIME THEY GET CHIPPED
AWAY WITH TAXES OR THESE THINGS,
THEY ARE GOING TO HURT THE
CONSUMER BECAUSE THESE ARE THE
GUYS THAT ARE EMPLOYED AND THESE
ARE THE GUYS THAT ARE KEEPING
THE ECONOMY GOING.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, MIKE, IT DOES
MAKE YOU THINK THAT THIS COULD
BE A SMART STRATEGY FOR BIG CITY
MAYORS, BIG STATE GOVERNORS,
WORRIED ABOUT ALL OF THIS, YOU
KNOW, WORKING FROM HOME, YOU
KNOW, THAT, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE
COULD DECIDE, LOOK, I DON’T NEED
TO GO IN, I COULD DO IT FROM
HOME, WHERE I’M HOUSED.
IT COULD HAVE FAR-REACHING
CONSEQUENCES HERE, DON’T YOU
THINK?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
AND NEIL, I THINK YOU MIGHT BE
GIVING -- SPEAKING FROM NEW YORK
YOU MIGHT BE GIVING TOO MUCH
CREDIT TO OUR MAYOR AND
GOVERNOR.
NEIL: PROBABLY, PROBABLY.
>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT
INCREASING TAXES ON WORKING
PEOPLE, I THINK THAT’S JUST A
NONSTARTER.
YOU KNOW, IF YOU ARE GOING TO
MAKE IT 5%, WHY NOT MAKE IT 10?
LET’S GO TO 20 WHILE WE’RE AT
IT.
WE’LL GIVE THE GOVERNOR AND THE
MAYOR AND THE PEOPLE RUNNING
THESE THE LOCAL DISTRICTS, GIVE
THEM MORE MONEY TO DO WHAT?
I DON’T KNOW.
I DON’T KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING
WITH IT.
IT’S A TERRIBLE IDEA.
IT’S A NONSTARTER.
AND I THINK WHAT’S HAPPENING IS
WE COME OUT OF THIS PANDEMIC,
BUSINESSES HAVE HAD TO REINVENT
THEMSELVES.
PEOPLE HAVE HAD TO REINVENT
THEIR JOBS.
WE’RE TALKING ON A ZOOM RIGHT
NOW, YOU AND I, INSTEAD OF
SITTING ACROSS FROM EACH OTHER.
PEOPLE ARE CHANGING THE WAY
THEIR LIVES -- THEY’VE LED THEIR
LIVES.
THEY ARE CHANGING THE WAY THEY
HAVE EARNED A LIVING AND TO PUT
AN EXTRA TAX ON THEM FOR THE
SAKE OF PUTTING A TAX ON THEM IS
JUST STUPID.
I THINK WE NEED TO GET THE
COUNTRY OPEN AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE.
WE NEED CITIES, STATES OPEN AS
QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
YES, CASES ARE UP.
BUT WE NEED PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO
GO IN AND WORK AND TO START
HITTING PEOPLE WITH NEW EXCESS
TAXES I THINK MAKES NO SENSE AT
ALL.
NEIL: I AM GETTING A SENSE,
THOUGH, FROM THIS, YOU KNOW, WHO
IS ADVISING JOE BIDEN THAT THEY
MIGHT ENTERTAIN IF HE WERE TO
COME INTO OFFICE IN JANUARY 20TH
WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY INEVITABLE
THAT THEY WOULD REVISIT
SOMETHING ON A MORE NATIONAL
LOCKDOWN TYPE BASIS.
WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF JUST THAT,
FRANCIS?
>> WELL, THE THING IS, YOU HAVE
TO WEIGH ALL THE COSTS OF A
LOCKDOWN.
YOU HAVE TO WEIGH THE ECONOMIC
COSTS.
YOU HAVE TO WEIGH THE
PSYCHOLOGICAL COSTS, THE OPIOID
ABUSE, THE THINGS THAT HAVE
OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF THE
LOCKDOWN AND THEN WEIGH THAT
AGAINST THE COVID CASES AND THE
DEATHS THERE AND WEIGH THAT
AGAINST, YOU KNOW, HAVING COVID
MAYBE STICK AROUND VERSUS
ERADICATEING IT.
STATISTICALLY IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO DO.
WE WILL ONLY KNOW IF WE’VE MADE
THE RIGHT DECISION IN HINDSIGHT,
BUT THE LONGER THIS ECONOMY IS
AT A STAND STILL AND THE LONGER
IT IS TILL WE CAN AGREE ON NEW
FISCAL STIMULUS AND IF THE CARES
ACT EXPIRES DECEMBER 31ST, AND
YOU HAVE ALL THE MORATORIUMS ON
EVICTIONS EXPIRING, YOU ARE
GOING TO HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE
THAT ARE IN SO MUCH PAIN, SO I
THINK IF WE WERE GOING TO GO ON
A LOCKDOWN AGAIN, WE WOULD HAVE
TO CONSIDER THAT VERY SERIOUSLY,
AND OF COURSE WE WILL GET THE
BENEFIT OF SEEING WHAT HAPPENED
WITH EUROPE FOR A SECOND
LOCKDOWN.
NEIL: MIKE, REAL QUICKLY,
CLEARLY THE MARKETS ARE WORRIED
ABOUT THIS.
I CAN’T THINK OF OTHER ISSUES
THAT WOULD BE WEIGHING ON THEM.
BUT THE FACT THAT THE CASES ARE
SPIKING HAS THEM WORRYING ABOUT
MORE AGGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT
ACTIONS TO REIN THEM IN; RIGHT?
I MEAN, THAT’S SOMETHING MARKETS
TYPICALLY DON’T LIKE; RIGHT?
>> CORRECT, NEIL.
I THINK REALLY THE MARKET
DOESN’T WANT THE GOVERNMENT
INVOLVED MORE, BUT THE MARKET
LOVES WHEN IT SAW THE PFIZER
VACCINE ANNOUNCEMENT.
THE MARKET CAN LOOK PAST WHERE
WE ARE CURRENTLY AND IT WILL
LOOK PAST DAY-TO-DAY NUMBERS OF
INCREASED CASES AND IT WILL LOOK
TO A TIME WHEN WE HAVE HAD A
VACCINE.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE WORKS
OF IT BEHIND US BACK IN MARCH
AND APRIL.
THE MARKET IS LOOKING FORWARD,
LOOKING AT EARNINGS AND LOOKING
AT A COUNTRY THAT’S REOPENED
AGAIN.
THAT’S WHY WE’RE RIGHT AT
ALL-TIME HIGHS AND WE’RE GOING
HIRE.
NEIL: MIKE, FINAL WORD.