>> I THINK YOU COULD SAY IT’S A
TWO-MAN RACE.
EVEN THOUGH DESANTIS IS FAR
BACK, HE’S WAY AHEAD OF ANYBODY
ELSE.
>> YOU CAN SEE THAT BETWEEN 70
AND 80% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE
PICKING EITHER DONALD TRUMP WHO
IS THE BIG DOG OR RON DESANTIS,
WHO ALSO GETS A SIZABLE CHUNK OF
PEOPLE.
I THINK THAT’S BECAUSE
REPUBLICAN VOTERS LIKE WHAT
THEY’VE DONE WHILE IN OFFICE.
>> Laura: NOW, IN THIS TWO-MAN
RACE, TRUMP HAS A COMMANDING
LEAD.
NEW POLLS SHOW THAT TRUMP IS
BEATING DESANTIS BY 36% IN BOTH.
THE FORMER NEW HAMPSHIRE
REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIR, EVEN
NOTED THAT THE FORMER
PRESIDENT’S ORGANIZATIONAL
SKILLS ADDING THAT BY COMPARISON
TO THE DESANTIS PEOPLE ARE
ROOKIES.
NOW, FOR ITS PART, THE DESANTIS
TEAM REJECTS THAT SAYING THE
MACHINE IS BUILT, FULL OF ROCKET
FUEL AND READY TO LAUNCH.
AS FAR AS THE POLLING GOES, THEY
SAY THEIR CANDIDATE IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT CAN WIN A GENERAL.
FOR EVIDENCE, THEY’RE POINTING
TO A NUMBER OF BATTLEGROUND
STATE POLLS SHOWING THAT TRUMP
IS STRUGGLING VERSUS BIDEN WHILE
DESANTIS WINS ALL THE
HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUPS SO WHERE
DO WE STAND?
JOINING ME NOW, CHRIS WILSON,
POLLSTER FOR NEVER BACK DOWN AND
ROBERT CAHALLY FOR THE TRAFALGAR
GROUP.
CHRIS, ARE BATTLEGROUND POLLS IN
THIS HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP REALLY
ENOUGH TO GO OFF OF RIGHT NOW TO
PROCLAIM THAT DESANTIS IS THE
ONLY ONE THAT CAN WIN THIS?
>> THAT’S THE CASE.
RON DESANTIS LEADS JOE BIDEN IN
EVERY SINGLE IMPORTANT
BATTLEGROUND STATE.
IN FACT, TRUMP LOSES, AGAIN, TO
JOE BIDEN IN ALL OF THOSE
STATES.
NOT JUST IN THOSE STATES BUT ONE
OF THE MOST ALARMING THINGS,
NUMBERS CAME OUT OF TEXAS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS POLL
THAT HAD TRUMP DOWN TO JOE BIDEN
IN THE LONE STAR STATE.
LOOK, YOU CAN’T HOLD TEXAS, YOU
PROBABLY SHOULDN’T BE THE
NOMINEE.
LET’S LOOK AT THE IMPLICATIONS
OF THAT.
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF A JOE BIDEN
VICTORY, WHICH RIGHT NOW NOT
EVEN GIVING JOE BIDEN TEXAS, IF
IT WAS A TRUMP AND BIDEN RACE,
YOU HAVE A WIPE-OUT IN THE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED WITH BARACK OBAMA
AND MITT ROMNEY.
IF THAT HAPPENS, YOU’RE LOOKING
AT A DEMOCRAT TAKING THE HOUSE
BACK, DEMOCRATS EXPANDING THEIR
LEAD IN THE SENATE, STACK THE
SUPREME COURT, WASHINGTON D.C.
BECOMES A STATE.
THE LIST GOES ON AND ON THE
PROBLEMS THAT ARE CREATED BY
DONALD TRUMP AS THE NOMINEE.
THAT’S WHY IT’S SO IMPORTANT
THAT RON DESANTIS IS THE
NOMINEE.
I’D SAY THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE
ORGANIZATIONS BEING PUT TOGETHER
BY NEVER BACK DOWN, THE
PREPARATION IS THERE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE EARLY
STATES, IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE,
SOUTH CAROLINA, NEVADA, THE
DESANTIS ORGANIZATION THERE WILL
BE VERY STRONG.
>> Laura: ROBERT, YOU WERE VERY
FAMOUS FOR BEING THE ONLY
POLSTER TO CORRECTLY CALL
TRUMP’S WIN IN 2016.
I DON’T THINK YOU GOT IT RIGHT
IN 2020.
YOU SAY THAT THERE ARE SOME
THINGS THAT TRUMP HAS
DEFINITIVELY GOING FOR HIM IN
THESE SWING STATES.
EXPLAIN.
>> YEAH, ACTUALLY WE HAVE THE
LOWEST ERROR REPORT IN 2020 AS
WELL.
A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN THE FINAL
OUTCOME.
IT’S EASY TO RELY ON SOME OF --
YOU HAVE POLLS SHOWING THAT
TRUMP CAN WIN THE SWING STATES
AND SOME SAYING THAT HE CAN’T.
REALLY DEPENDS WHO IS DOING THE
POLLING AND WHAT THEIR INCENTIVE
IS.
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS NEVER
THOUGHT THE REPUBLICANS CAN WIN
TEXAS.
I’M NOT GOING TO FOOL WITH THAT.
THERE’S NUMEROUS REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATES THAT CAN WIN THIS
GENERAL ELECTION.
DONALD TRUMP IS MOST CERTAINLY
ONE OF THEM.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT PEOPLE
REALLY UPSET ABOUT AND WORRIED
ABOUT THESE DAYS IS WITH PUTIN
AND XI AND THOSE GUYS GETTING
TOGETHER.
MADE PEOPLE SCARED, MORE THAN
ANY POINT DURING THE COLD WAR.
SO IF YOU ASK SIMPLE QUESTION,
WOULD RUSSIA HAVE INVADED
UKRAINE IF DONALD TRUMP WAS
PRESIDENT.
EVERY ONE OF THE SWING STATES
SAY NO.
ARE YOU --
>> Laura: THE NUMBER 1 ISSUE IS
IT NOT THE ECONOMY?
IT’S THE INFLATION, THE PRICES,
AND THE ECONOMY.
THAT’S WHERE TRUMP HAS AN
UNBELIEVABLE RECORD.
2019, 2018 VERSUS TODAY, TO ME,
THAT’S HIS STRONGEST ARGUMENT TO
WINNING.
WHAT DESANTIS IS GOING TO SAY --
CHRIS, YOU CAN CORRECT ME --
DESANTIS WILL SAY SOMETHING LIKE
TRUMP’S POLICIES WERE AWESOME
AND WE SALUTE DONALD TRUMP.
BUT I’M GOING TO WIN THIS THING.
I’M GOING TO WIN WOMEN, I’M
GOING TO WIN SUBURBAN WOMEN.
FOR THAT HE’S TOXIC.
THAT’S WHAT I BET DESANTIS WILL
ARGUE.
SO WHAT DOES TRUMP SAY TO MOVE
THESE POLLS TO THE INDEPENDENTS
AND THE SUBURBAN WIN TOWARD HIM
TO COMBAT WHAT I BELIEVE
DESANTIS WILL ARGUE?
>> WELL, I CAN’T SPEAK TO WHAT
TRUMP WILL DO.
WHAT I CAN SAY IS WHEN ONE OF
THE QUESTIONS WE ASK, YOU KNOW,
ARE REAGAN TEST, ARE YOU BETTER
OFF NOW THAN FOUR YEARS AGO.
ABSOLUTELY, ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE
TESTS WHERE THE ECONOMY IS THE
LEADING INDICATOR AND PEOPLE SAY
THEY’RE BETTER OFF IN TRUMP’S
ECONOMY.
WHY NEVER HAD TWO GUYS THAT HAVE
RUN AND HAVE A FULL COMPARISON.
AMERICANS ARE VERY GOOD WITH A-B
CHOICES.
I KNOW SOME OF THE PEOPLE WITH
DESANTIS AND OTHER CAN DID WILL
SAY TRUMP HAS BEEN DEMONIZED AND
WE HAVE A BETTER SHOT.
REMEMBER WHEN THE LIBERALS LIKED
ELON MUSK?
HE SPEAKS UP FOR FREE SPEECH.
NOW HE’S A PARIAH.
DOESN’T MATTER WHO THE
REPUBLICANS NOMINATE, THEY’LL GO
AFTER THEM WITH THE SAME VICIOUS
VIGOR THAT THEY HAVE TRUMP.
SO ANYBODY THAT THINKS ANY OF
THE OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
IT WILL BE A PANACEA AND
EVERYBODY CAN’T WAIT FOR THEM TO
GET ELECTED, THAT’S NOT REALITY.
>> Laura: NO.
THE PROBLEM WILL ATTACK ANY
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
YOU’RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
CHRIS, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
THE BIG DONORS ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT IS THE FOCUS ON THE
CULTURAL ISSUES.
YOU KNOW, I LOVE WHAT DESANTIS
IS DOING ON THE CULTURAL ISSUES.
SINCE THE NUMBER 1 ISSUE FOR THE
COUNTRY AND THE INDEPENDENT
VOTERS IS THE ECONOMY, DO YOU
SEE DESANTIS IN A GENERAL REALLY
SHIFTING TO ECONOMIC CONCERNS
AND PERHAPS MOVING AWAY FROM
THESE A THESE ISSUES -- I LOVE
THIS STUFF.
PEOPLE THAT ARE WEARY OF THEM,
ABORTION, PETER TEAL IS ONE OF
THEM.
HE SAID HE COULD SUPPORT
DESANTIS BUT WANTS THE FOCUS TO
BE ON THE ECONOMY.
>> SURE.
I’M THERE WITH YOU IN TERMS OF
APPRECIATING WHAT HE’S DONE AND
TAKING ON CAPITALISM AND MAKING
FLORIDA WHERE WOKE GOES TO DIE.
BUT YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT
THEY DID IN THE PAST.
DONALD TRUMP WON IN 2016 AND RAN
AGAINST JOE BIDEN IN 2020 AND
LOST.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH RON DESANTIS?
HE WON A VERY CLOSE ELECTION IN
2018.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STATE OF
FLORIDA?
YOU SAW A MASSIVE CHANGE IN
REGISTRATION.
THEY WENT FROM A DEFICIT OF
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS TO A
SURPLUS OF OVER 300,000.
YOU HAVE PEOPLE MOVING IN FROM
BLUE STATES TO GET DOWN TO
FLORIDA WHERE IT BECAME THE FREE
STATE OF FLORIDA.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH RON DESANTIS,
NOT ONLY DID HE WIN
OVERWHELMINGLY IN 2022, HE DID
SO IN A MANNER THAT SWEPT
REPUBLICANS ACROSS THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN TO OFFICE.
I’LL POINT OUT, LAURA, HE DID
THAT IN THE SAME TIME WHERE WE
SHOULD EXPECT A RED WAVE TO
OCCUR NATIONALLY.
IT DIDN’T.
THERE’S A STUDY BY JACOBSON IN
2023 THAT SHOWS THAT IS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO DONALD TRUMP.
WHERE THERE ARE RACES IN WHICH
THERE WAS NOT AN INCUMBENT,
PENNSYLVANIA, GEORGIA, NEVADA,
ARIZONA, DONALD TRUMP’S IMPACT
COST US THOSE SENATE STATES.
LOOK AT ANOTHER STUDY BY BALLARD
WHERE THEY QUANTIFY THE IMPACT
OF TRUMP’S ENDORSE MEANT ON
SENATE RACES, IT COULD US 15 IN
2018 AND 10 IN THE HOUSE AND
FIVE IN THE SENATE.
THE IMPACT OF THE TRUMP
CANDIDACY IS DAMAGING DOWN TO
STATE LEVEL AND NATIONALLY.
>> Laura: CERTAINLY HELPED J.D.
VANCE IN OHIO.
CERTAINLY HELPED I THINK IN
NEW YORK ON SOME OF THOSE HOUSE
RACES WE WON.
BUT YOUR RESPONSE TO THOSE
CHARGES, ROBERT, ABOUT WHAT
TRUMP DOES DOWN BALLOT.
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, IT’S
INTERESTING THAT HE WOULD SAY
THAT TRUMP IS NOT EFFECTIVE DOWN
BALLOT.
AGAIN, I’M NOT HERE TO DEFEND
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN.
I’M HERE TO SUGGEST THAT MANY
REPUBLICANS HAVE A SHOT.
IN THE YEAR WHEN DONALD TRUMP
LOST, THE REPUBLICANS PICKED UP
A LOT OF SEATS IN CONGRESS AND
DIDN’T HAVE THE IMPACT THAT
EVERYBODY WOULD ASSUME IF THEY
LOST THE PRESIDENCY.
THEY WON ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
TICKET.
SO I MEAN, THAT’S WHAT HAPPENED
LAST TIME.
>> WE SHOULD HAVE WON THOSE
STATES AND HE COULDN’T WIN.
SHOWS WHAT A WEAK CANDIDATE
DONALD TRUMP IS.
>> Laura: WE’RE GOING TO SEE.
THIS WILL BE FASCINATING.
CHRIS AND ROBERT, THANKS FOR THE
ANALYSIS.
THESE POLLS MOVE AND THEY’RE ALL