so president moon jaein has said that and today trying to mark seventy years
of communist party rule and North Korea and China celebrates seven decades of
diplomatic relations on the sixth of this month speculations have been on the
rise that North Korean leader Kim jong-un will travel to China in time for
the celebration ahead of the resumption of denuclearization talks with the US
and a possible third summit with US President Trump the dialogue momentum
that appears to be picking up again live in the studio with me to take a step
further in is dr. Stephen Norfolk Senior Director for Policy a New York basis
Korea society and a Senior Research Fellow or senior research scholar at
Columbia University dr. Nora welcome to the program Thank You Jen now part of
shift from what we've been seeing in North Korea us denuclearization talks
since the Trump Kim Hanoi summit in the last couple of months now it appears
that the dialogue momentum is finally picking up picking up between the two
sides as a u.s. North Korea policy expert of a long time have you been
picking up those kind of signals from the both sides as well well certainly
there has been movement forward after several months of stasis with Trump's
walk away from Hanoi the North Koreans took a timeout and recalibrated and
evaluated their approach and it now appears that we're seeing some movement
forward and there is a crack in the veneer so let's hope that this leads to
two further discussion one of the good indicators was president moons visit to
the United Nations because there he attempted to really kickstart that
process and get the Americans in the North Koreans talking again as we opened
our talk there are speculations that North Korean leader Kim jong-un may
visit China in the next couple of days now how good of a chance is that for you
and what does that say about Kim jong-un stance heading into negotiations with
the United States yes well it's a possibility this would be the fifth
meeting between the two in two years prior to that there were not meetings
once Kim jong-un had assumed leadership role
China is looming larger in the North Korean calculus clearly as its major
economic and political supporter there would be some ability than for Kim to
garner political support ahead of the next round of negotiations so do expect
him to reach out to China and perhaps Russia as well as he tries to
concentrate power behind the negotiating position he's also looking to create a
break in international sanctions so by going to Beijing he would certainly
strike it then now if when we see progress in the working-level talks
between Pyongyang and Washington do you foresee a third summit between mr. Trump
and Chairman Kim jong-un as well sometime within this year and perhaps a
location of DC or even Pyongyang it's certainly a possibility
clearly there's motivation on the parts of the leaders Donald Trump now is
distracted at home especially given the current imbroglio over possible
impeachment he's looking for foreign policy wins ahead of next year's
presidential electoral cycle Kim jong-un needs economic viability he needs to try
to break those sanctions and he needs to try to strike at economic modernization
as he's promised the people of North Korea and for that matter moon jae-in
would like to see a win - especially with the lead-up to the April elections
well definitely but it seems like the world has had enough of the the optics
the Show and Tell kind of diplomacy from the Singapore summit from the Hanoi
summit and whatnot and the DMZ rendezvous of course and now we know
that it's substance that matters we know that we need to see substance heading
into the summit or perhaps we need to see concrete substance that will result
in the summit or perhaps from those summits what in your view what needs to
be done in order for this service to happen or what needs to come out from
this summit well it's a significant question because there really is a
challenge and had had to try to find substantive progress and by that I mean
both a declaration by North Korea of its capabilities and allowing in
international inspectors for verification some analysts feel that
they won't budge on that but all practical purposes for the North
Koreans to see sanctions relief even partial relief they will have to declare
some and perhaps allow for verification of some of its new capabilities so that
said I think it's likely that you'll see working group talks as we're committed
to this summer by Kim jong-un and Donald Trump along the DMZ and that's a
significant next step but this is a long process to end denuclearization takes a
long time so we need to adopt a patient attitude because it will take several
years for there to be effective denuclearization there will be setbacks
there will probably be more walk aways but that doesn't mean we don't try it
the process we really need to find a way to check North Korea's nuclear ambitions
and to reign in that capability which poses a threat to not only the United
States South Korea and Japan but the East Asia international so we should
stay a little reserved about about both president Trump and Chairman Kim
jong-il's remarks said they'll get this done by President Trump's first term
well I think I would allow for it and there are the political motivators I
mentioned one of the questions will be whether the current concerns and in DC
that surround Trump about these impeachment proceedings will either make
him more interested in scoring a foreign policy victory or for that matter being
distracted and having less attention on the Korean issue there have been
concerns that the role of the South Korean president has been a fading since
since direct correspondence between Pyongyang and Washington had been has
been ongoing South Korean president to a certain extent appeared to have crawled
OHS concerns by his visit to New York like you mentioned know what role does
Seoul have to play from here on forth well Seoul has had the critical role
this process would not have existed had it not been for the ball rolling around
the country on games and what happened last year in terms of much of the
historic progress so the administration has been put off by North Korea which
has since annoy not really communicated very much with it but to get the ball
rolling again it does require what we've seen which is sold to take an active
leadership role Somu see Americans because of the us-rok
Alliance and because of the fact that there is viability in the process now
when Seoul urges it so we saw an advance of Singapore Seoul coordinate with
Pyongyang the meeting between Kim jong-un and moon jaein at the time that
led to Singapore and then this time last year when there was some impasse so the
steps of the United Nations on the part of moon jae-in and his foreign minister
chung hua are important to really get this kick-started and with Bolton's
departure there appears to be a more opportunity now so cautiously optimistic
now you mentioned this briefly I here and there but we are seeing this
impeachment drama play out in Washington and I'd like to know how that might
factor in in Trump's North Korea policy in u.s. is North Korea policy in this
anything this North Korean equation will this or how will this impact this North
Korean equation it's an essential question and it is on many different
international issues we'll see as this proceeds the potential charges are very
serious and what's happened with Ukraine is quite significant this is new
territory well beyond the Moller report so it does have the potential to draw
trump away from his focus on this on the other hand it could motivate him to want
to seek foreign policy victories and try to really move forward with the North
Koreans so it would behoove the North Koreans to seize the moment and really
move forward at Seoul's behest and Washington's and really try to make some
strides forward in deliverables as we've talked about in terms of declaration and
verification all right that Stephen Norfolk Senior Director for Policy and
New York based Korea society and professor at Columbia University many
many things for making all the way to our studio for this talk today and we
hope to have you again here in this year again Thank You Jay