On December 12th, Burnley went into fourth place, though they slipped back to 6th the
following day.
Nick Harris, also known as @sportingintel on Twitter, tweeted that 12 Premier League
teams have a points’ total within 2 of their goals scored, before going on to note how
many points, 31, Burnley’s 16 goals had been worth in achieving this remarkable league
position.
We thought this was worth investigating in a bit more detail, and so we plugged in the
last full five seasons’ worth of Premier League goals and points totals at season’s
end, plus this season so far, with 17 games completed.
The first thing to note is that looking at 120 teams’ goals and points totals, it is
remarkable how closely one goal equals one point.
As we’ll come on to see, there is some disparity between teams over the last five full seasons
plus this one, but the average points per goal across that sample of 120 teams is 1.03.
Now, a full table of those 120 teams would be a bit unwieldy on the screen, so we’ve
pulled out some key things to note.
In the last five seasons, the top ten teams for goals scored have won the title three
times, finished second three times, and shared two third places, one fourth spot and one
fifth spot between them.
The average points per goal is 0.97, with only Chelsea even faintly garnering more points
than their goals total might suggest.
Man City and Liverpool’s goal machines of 2013/14 both racked up many more goals than
their points total suggests – indeed, City would have to have won 34 games to get one
point per goal.
When we look at points totals, five teams in the top ten places came first (i.e. all
title winners of the completed seasons we’ve looked at), three came second, one came third,
and poor old Arsenal came fourth.
Interestingly, among teams who were in top ten for pints won, the average points per
goal is higher, 1.05, with teams who accrue large points tallies tending to be slightly
better at getting more points for their goals.
Indeed, Chelsea’s title winning side of 2014/15 scored 73 goals for 87 points, at
1.19 points per goal, the same total as Leicester City in 2015/16, who scored 68 goals for 81
points.
What then of teams who get low points per goal totals?
The average finishing place of these 12 teams is 16th but that is buoyed by the 2013/14
Liverpool and Swansea City teams and the Everton of 2015/16.
The lowest total was achieved by Aston Villa in 2015/16 when they propped up the table
with 17 points for 27 goals – while they were bad, Reading were maybe somewhat unlucky
to have scored 43 goals for only 28 points in the season they left the Premier League.
Note, too, how free-scoring Liverpool, who finished 2nd in 2013/14 with 101 goals and
only 84 points are sandwiched between two teams who finished last.
You wouldn’t think that points per goal efficiency would link last season’s Sunderland
and the second highest scoring team of the last five full seasons, but it does.And what
of the teams who are best at generating points per goal?
Well, three are from this season, including Burnley, whose total of 31 points from 16
goals is almost 2 points per goal and nearly half a point per goal better than the next
best of the last six seasons.
And the next best?
Huddersfield of this season, another team who make efficiency a goal, with no pun intended.
Interestingly, of these best ten teams for points per goal in the last six seasons, the
highest finish is Manchester United’s fifth place in 2015/16 – indeed, United and Stoke
City are the only teams to appear in the efficiency top ten twice (this season’s Stoke, by the
way, are the worst team of 2017/18 for efficiency, with 0.84 points per goal).
Swansea have reasons to look cheerfully at precedent – only two teams who managed more
than 1.1 points per goal in the last five full seasons have been relegated, Burnley
in 2014/15, and Norwich in 2013/14.
Otherwise, the average finishing position of teams managing more than 1.1 points per
goal in the last five full seasons and this season is between 9th and 10th – if Swansea
do go down, they could be considered a significant outlier and/or unlucky.
So goals equal points, almost exactly, across the last five full seasons and this one.
And that just shows how remarkable Burnley are.
No other side has come close in the last six years to squeezing every last ounce of point
from so few goals.
It’s just another feather in the cap of Sean Dyche, the king of efficiency.