China stated it was simulating precision attacks on key targets in Taiwan
as part of the military drills it launched in response to the island
President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with the US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
The state media reported the mock drills included “tactical maneuvers” by the Chinese Navy,
Over the last few years, it has become clear that the likelihood
of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is increasing.
Several experts including US military leaders have publicly stated that China
may attempt the forceful subjugation of Taiwan in the next 3-7 years.
This is a precarious situation for Taiwan whose military
budget & capabilities are dwarfed by China. But unlike the Ukraine invasion where Russia
simply had to just roll over the border, China will have to send its
forces across the Taiwan Strait which is about 100 miles or 160 km in width.
A new way to deploy standoff weapons
operationalized by the U.S. could very well save Taiwan.
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes how Rapid Dragon could sink the Chinese invasion fleet?
Let's get started.
The Rapid Dragon Program, previously designated the Palletized Munitions Program,
was an accelerated research campaign led by the Air Force Strategic Development Planning
and Experimentation Office (SDPE), part of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
Palletized munitions can be crudely referred to as “missiles in a box”.
The goal was to assess the operational utility of delivering large volumes of palletized long-range
strike weapons from military cargo aircraft that include C-130 Hercules & C-17 Globemaster III.
The program enables the air lifters to be used as a force multiplier.
Viewers may note that dedicated transporters have a massive payload capacity.
For example, a C-130 can carry up to 42,000 lb or 19,000 kg payload.
The pallets allow cruise missiles to be
loaded onto aircraft like the C-130s without modifications.
This way US Air Force can significantly increase the number of long-range weapons it can deploy.
Long-range standoff strike weapons are essential when taking on near-peer rivals
like China and Russia which have integrated air defense systems.
Air-lifters are equipped with rear ramps that can be opened in flight to airdrop cargo pallets.
Rapid Dragon program takes this further.
Once released, and these were stabilized by parachutes,
the munition pallet released surrogate missiles “in quick succession”.
The missiles drop vertically, deploy their wings, ignite their motors, and fly to their targets.
While prima facia looks simple, it is not. For this to work correctly several steps need
to be accomplished accurately, a high altitude airdrop using the modular deployment box,
jettison of multiple weapons from the palletized weapon deployment system and clean separation.
Personnel on the ground can use satellite communication data links
to transmit targeting data to the Rapid Dragon system and the aircraft-agnostic
Battle Management System onboard the aircraft can upload it to the missiles.
Several Standoff weapons are compatible with Rapid Dragon.
This includes JASSM-ER, JASSM-X,
JDAM-ER as well as LRASM or Long Range Anti Ship Missile which will be the key in this scenario.
AGM-158C LRASM is essentially an anti-ship variant
of AGM-158 JASSM which is the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile.
A C-130 Hercules can accommodate 2 Rapid Dragon pallets with 6 LRASM each,
for a total of 12 missiles The larger C-17 Globemaster
III could accommodate 5 Rapid Dragon pallets with 9 LRASM each, for a total of 45 missiles
The stealth missile is designed to strike ships as far away as 300 miles or 480 km
though the exact range could be more. The missile is subsonic and but since
it is LO (Low Observable), the enemy warship will not see it coming till it is very close.
It is powered by an F107 turbofan engine and has a 1,000 lb (450 kg) blast-fragmentation penetrator.
The warhead is potent
enough to cripple a large warship. It uses an inertial and jam-resistant
GPS navigation system for the initial phase of the journey, a two-way data link for mid-course,
and a Radio-frequency and Infra-Red sensor for the terminal phase.
In the terminal phase, the missile skims close to the surface which makes it hard to intercept.
It is important to note that LRASMs can be deployed in swarm mode which
will enable them to saturate enemy defenses.
The C-130 Hercules and C-17 Globemaster III will need to just move up to 10,000 feet and
have a speed of about 200 mph or 320 mph to be able to launch the Rapid Dragon pallets.
US Air Force has around 270 C-130 Hercules & about 220 units of operational C-17 Globemaster III.
So, if even a small percentage of these are deployed, they can launch 300+ LRASM
at the Chinese flotilla which could be of around 50 warships of different types
including destroyers, supply ships, and amphibious transport dock ships.
The Air Lifters could go airborne from Taiwan and potentially from Okinawa.
Obviously, the C-130 Hercules & C-17 will be escorted by fighters.
The long range of LRAMS will enable the attack to be launched from outside the
strike envelope of the Chinese ship and ground-based air defense system.
The stealthy LRASM is hard to defend against and when deployed in large numbers in swarm mode,
they will be even harder to counter. While Chinese destroyers like Type
055 are well equipped, intercepting missiles is like hitting ‘bullets with bullets’ - the
fate of the Russian Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva stands as a reminder.
Especially, once the Type 071 Chinese amphibious transport dock ships of the
People's Liberation Army Navy which are capable of carrying 600 to 800 troops are taken out,
China will be unable to continue the invasion attempt.
Viewers may note that if an initial attempt fails,
China will have almost no window left since, US & potentially Japanese forces will become active.