It's an American tradition that when one presidential candidate loses the election,
that person publicly (and promptly) admits their loss in a concession speech.
At least, this is the normal way of things. As USA Today notes, in fact,
no presidential candidate in modern history has refused to concede, even though a concession
speech isn't part of the U.S. Constitution or anything. It is a purely voluntary action.
Looking at the tight race in the 2020 presidential election between Republican incumbent Donald Trump
and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, it seems fair to ask:
What will happen if Trump loses but refuses to concede? It's doubly fair,
considering the fact that in the early hours on November 4th, 2020, Trump falsely announced
that he won the whole thing while votes were still, in fact, being counted. With Trump
so set on winning, here is what will actually go down should he refuse to concede to Biden.
In late 2019, a group of bipartisan researchers created the Transition Integrity Project,
which was made to study scenarios that could compromise the integrity of the
2020 presidential election. It's a useful tool,
since Donald Trump himself said on November 4, 2020, that he'll take the election to court.
"We want the law to be used in a proper manner so we'll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court."
According to the Transition Integrity Project,
"As a legal matter, a candidate unwilling to concede can contest the election into January."
The team behind the project adds that problems were expected in the 2020 election:
"We anticipate lawsuits, divergent media narratives,
attempts to stop the counting of ballots, and protests drawing people from both sides."
If Trump loses but refuses to concede, the nation could be in a constitutional crisis
that forces courts to deal with aspects of constitutional law rarely used. Not to
mention, a refusal to concede could lead to nationwide - and possibly global - unrest.
Plus, there's the issue of power at play. As Rosa Brooks,
a co-founder of the Transition Integrity Project, explained to FiveThirtyEight,
"You have just a tremendous differential between the president of the United
States of America, who has just awesome coercive powers at his disposal,
and a challenger who really has no power whatsoever."
What could this mean, exactly? As Brooks put it,
"Joe Biden can call a press conference; Donald Trump could call on the 82nd Airborne."
While it's unclear if President Trump will refuse to concede if he loses the 2020 presidential
election, we do know that he is not going to let the race go without a fight. Trump has threatened
to take the election to the Supreme Court and already has filed lawsuits in several states.
What happens if the ballot recounts and lawsuits persist long after Election Day?
What if one of Biden's electors goes rogue and drops his electoral vote count below 270?
There is a process already set in place to contend with those circumstances.
In the unlikely event that a winner isn't determined by January 6,
2021, the election will then be decided by the House of Representatives, with each state
casting one vote. It's a rare and complicated process known as a "contingent election."
So, how about if Trump does lose the election. Could he really truly refuse to leave the White
House? What happens if he declines to concede and also refuses to physically leave the place
he so proudly called home the last four years. What if he becomes a White House squatter?
It's unclear what, exactly, would happen in that scenario from a protocol standpoint,
but for what's it's worth, former Republican National Committee chairman
Michael Steele told the Boston Globe,
"I think we would have that Nixonian moment where a leadership team would
travel to the White House to declare, 'Mr. President, it is over.'"
In 1973, President Nixon became the only president in U.S. history to resign,
due to his involvement in the Watergate scandal. Steele added, to the Globe,
"If you've got a president who's chained himself to the Resolute Desk,
the new president would say, 'Would you go inside and get him out please?'"
Looks like we'll just have to wait and see.
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