On 2nd August one of the most important arms control treaties - the INF Treaty has formally
expired.
Viewers may note that the summit between U.S and Russia on 30 January 2019 failed to find
a way to keep the treaty.
The United States suspended its compliance with the INF Treaty on 2 February 2019 blaming
Russia for non-compliance.
In addition, the U.S stated that there was a 6-month timeline for full withdrawal and
it will expire if Russia did not come back into compliance within that.
The situation didn’t improve and the timeline expired on 2nd August.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes why U.S has decided to develop new weapons after
the expiry of INF Treaty?
Let’s get started
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INF Treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987.
It banned ground-launch missiles with ranges from 500 km to 5,500 km that is 310 to 3420 miles
The INF Treaty eliminated around 2,700 nuclear and conventional missiles, as well as their
launchers.
This was achieved by May 1991.
This included short-range missile with 310–620 mi that is 500–1,000 km range and intermediate
range missile with 620–3,420 mi that is 1,000–5,500 km range.
The treaty had provisions for 10 years of onsite inspections.
INF Treaty went a long way in ending the serious standoff between U.S Pershing and cruise missiles
and Soviet SS-20 missiles in Europe.
It should be noted that the treaty does not cover sea-launched missiles.
On November 29, 2017, speaking at the Wilson Center, National Security Council official
Christopher Ford had revealed that the weapon violating the INF Treaty was the Novator 9M729,
having NATO designation of SSC-8
This newly developed missile is reported to be derived from 3M14 Caliber-NK land-based
cruise missile and probably uses some design elements of Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile.
There is limited information on the missile but it is expected to use Transport Erector
Launcher.
The missile is thought to be guided by Inertial Navigation System.
As per the United States, Novator 9M729 is land-based and has a range between 500 km
to 5,500 km that is 310 to 3420 miles depending on fuel load and warhead used.
This makes the missile violate the terms of the INF treaty.
The 9M729 is capable of hitting targets throughout Western Europe with tactical nuclear warheads
in the event of a conflict.
In December 2017 the U.S. government had sanctioned several companies involved in the production
of the 9M729, including lead contractor Novator.
In February 2018, the Pentagon concluded that Russia was actively violating the terms of
the agreements.
In October last year, President Trump claimed the agreement did little more than interfere
with U.S. military development.
The president had said at a Nevada rally, “I don't know why President [Barack] Obama
didn't negotiate or pull out, we're not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and
go out and do weapons, and we’re not allowed to.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg concurred with Trump's assessment.
He stated, "After years of denials, Russia recently acknowledged the existence of a new
missile system, called 9M729.
Russia has not provided any credible answers on this new missile.
All allies agree that the most plausible assessment would be that Russia is in violation of the treaty.”
The INF Treaty already had much opposition in America’s power circle.
This is not only because of the Russian aspect but also due to the Chinese factor.
Harry Harris, the former commander of U.S. Pacific Command who is now U.S. ambassador
to South Korea is one of them.
In testimony submitted to Congress last year, Harris pointed several important aspected.
He noted that China is not a signatory of any treaty like this and used it to develop
a large arsenal of missiles.
As per him, the Chinese Rocket Forces has more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles,
almost 95% of which would violate the INF treat if China was a signature.
Both parties have indicated that they will now pursue weapons that were restricted as
per the INF Treaty.
Russian Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu recently stated that Russia will build ground-based
intermediate-range nuclear missiles within the next two years.
He said that land-based version of the navy's Kalibr cruise missile and a new land-based
hypersonic missile must be built in 2019 or 2020.
Shoigu that such mid-range missiles must now be designed, insisting that Russia take "tit-for-tat
measures."
He also accused the US of seeking to make "ground-based missiles with a range capability
of over 500 km.”
America is also moving in that direction and seems to have two weapons in mind.
Currently, U.S Army has MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATacMS).
U.S Army Tactical Missile System is a surface-to-surface missile manufactured by the American company
Lockheed Martin.
It has a range of over 100 miles (160 km), with solid propellant.
America is already working towards a system that will have a range of 499 km just below
the 500 km range-restricted of the INF Treaty.
The program is designated as Precision Strike Missile or PrSM and is an upgrade of ATacMS.
Viewers may note that the U.S Army is pushing toward a replacement for the Army Tactical
Missile System with PrSM by 2023, which is much earlier than the initial timeline of
2027.
The Trump administration is also looking to field a new nuclear weapon designed to counter
Russia.
It is the W-76-2 warhead, which is expected to be available for deployment by late 2019.
The W-76-2 is an adaptation of the older W-76-1.
W-76-1 is present in Trident D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles which are carried by U.S
Navy’s Ohio-class submarines.
The W-76-2 is designed to have a much smaller explosive power of around 5 to 7 kilotons
of TNT, when compared to other warheads.
To give viewers a perspective, the Hiroshima bomb had a yield of 15 to 17 kilotons.
The U.S. will field an unknown number of the new warhead and these are expected to have
a much lower threshold for usage.
The U.S. government's 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) pointed to the fact that Russia
is lowering its threshold for using low-yield nuclear weapons in wartime and warned that
the U.S. must move to match this capability.
The NPR stated, “Russia’s belief that limited nuclear
first use, potentially including low-yield weapons, can provide such an advantage is
based, in part, on Moscow’s perception that its greater number and variety of non-strategic
nuclear systems provide a coercive advantage in crises and at lower levels of conflict.”
This is where the new American weapons will be useful.
In that situation, just like Russia will have a way to strike Europe, the U.S will have
a way to strike Russia from Europe.
This will mean both sides will be back on the same situation which had led to the INF
Treaty in the first place and it will actually be worse as they will have nukes that have
lower usage threshold.
Since the distance between Russia and Western Europe is very small, both parties will have
very little time to react in case a missile launch is triggered.
This is bound to complicate the security situation.
President Trump recently stated that his administration had been discussing with Russia "about a pact
for nuclear weapons, so that they get rid of some, we get rid of some".
He also added."We'd certainly have to include China at some point,”
It remains to be seen if a new treaty comes into place.