ASHLEY:
BREAKING NEWS, JUST MOMENTS AGOU
BREAKING NEWS, JUST MOMENTS AGOK
BREAKING NEWS, JUST MOMENTS AGO.
PRIME MINISTER BORIS JOHNSON
REPORTEDLY HAD A, QUOTE,
POSITIVE AND SUBSTANTIVE
CONVERSATION WITH EUROPEAN
COMMISSION PRESIDENT JOAN PAUL
JUNKER -- JEAN PAUL JUNKER,
UNLESS THE AGREEMENT WAS
REOPENED AND THE IRISH BACKSTOP
ABOLISH ED, THERE IS NO BREXIT
DEAL.
MEANWHILE, YES, THE U.K. IS
STILL DUE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION ON OCTOBER 31ST.
JOHNSON HAS PROMISED TO STICK TO
THAT DATE EVEN IF HE CANNOT GET
A DEAL WITH BRUSSELS.
OUR NEXT GUEST WAS THE FORMER
U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE YOUR MEAN
KIND YOON -- EUROPEAN UNION, HE
KNOWS A THING OR TWO ABOUT
BREXIT AND THE IMPACTS IT COULD
HAVE.
AMBASSADOR ANTHONY GARDNER JOINS
US EXCLUSIVELY LIVE FROM LONDON.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
ALL THE RHETORIC UP TO THIS
POINT WITH BORIS JOHNSON
SUGGESTS THAT HE DOESN'T
REALLY -- UNLESS THE E.U. GETS
RID OF THAT IRISH BACKSTOP, HE
DOESN'T WANT TO DEAL.
AND IF THAT'S THE CASE, SURELY
THE PROSPECTS OF A NO-DEAL
BREXIT ARE GETTING LARGER AND
LARGER.
>> ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
I THINK THE MARKETS ARE
UNDERESTIMATING THE RISK OF A
NO-DEAL, HARD BREXIT.
BUT IT'S WORTH REMINDING THE
AUDIENCE WHY WE ARE HERE, WHY
WE'RE IN THIS SITUATION.
THE PRIME MINISTER MAY, BEFORE
BORIS JOHNSON, SET FORTH SOME
RED LINES.
THE U.K. WILL LEAVE THE CUSTOMS
UNION, AND THAT NECESSITATES THE
E.U. TO HAVE BORDER CHECKS AT
THE EXTERNAL BORDER BETWEEN
NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND.
AND THAT IS BECAUSE THE SINGLE
MARKET AND CUSTOMS UNION ARE
ABSOLUTELY CORE TO WHAT THE E.U.
IS.
THE BACKSTOP WAS A WAY TO KIND
OF SQUARE THE CIRCLE, IF YOU
WISH, AND THAT IS TO SAY, LOOK,
IF YOU'RE QUICK TO BE LEAVING
BOTH -- IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE
LEAVING BOTH, ONE OPTION IS FOR
NORTHERN IRELAND TO STAY IN THIS
ARRANGEMENT, THE US TOMS UNION
PARTS OF THE SINGLES MARKET, AND
BORIS JOHNSON SAID NO.
THE CHANCES OF STRIPPING THE
BACKSTOP OUT OF THE WITHDRAWAL
AGREEMENT, I THINK, ARE NIL.
SO RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE THAT
BORIS JOHNSON IS SETTING UP FOR
A BLAME GAME.
ASHLEY: WELL, THAT'S INTERESTING
BECAUSE, LISTEN, HE -- WE KNOW
THAT THERESA MAY TRIED TREE
TIMES TO -- THREE TIMES TO GET A
DEAL THROUGH AND FAILED THREE
TIMES.
THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES IF
BORIS JOHNSON TRIES TO RUN OUT
THE CLOCK, JUST COUNT IT DOWN TO
OCTOBER 31ST AND BEFORE YOU KNOW
IT THE STRIKE OF MIDNIGHT, BOOM,
THE U.K. ARE OUT, AND TRYING TO
COME UP WITH WAYS TO STOP HIM.
CAN HE BE STOPPED?
>> WELL, THERE ARE TWO WAYS.
YOU'RE RIGHT, THE DEFAULT OPTION
IS THAT IF NOTHING HAPPENS,
THEY'RE OUT ON OCTOBER 31ST.
ONE OF THE WAYS, WHICH IS A VOTE
OF NO CONFIDENCE, SEEMS TO BE
LESS LIKELY TODAY THAN IT WAS
EVEN A FEW DAYS AGO.
BUT THE OTHER WAY, WHICH IS THE
LEGISLATIVE OPTION OF SEIZING
CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATIVE
CALENDAR OF THE HOUSE OF
COMMONS, SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TODAY.
SIX OPPOSITION PARTIES SEEM TO
AGREE.
THEY'VE AGREED ON A PACT TO ASK
THE COMMONS SPEAKER TO SET ASIDE
SOME TIME ON THE LEGISLATIVE
CALENDAR TO HAVE AN EMERGENCY
DEBATE AND INTRODUCE LEGISLATION
THAT WOULD FORCE THE PRIME
MINISTER, BORIS JOHNSON, TO
REQUEST AN EXTENSION.
NOW, HERE WE'RE GETTING TO VERY
MURKY WATERS.
IT'S NOT CLEAR WHAT'LL HAPPEN IF
THE SPEAKER ALLOWS THIS TO
HAPPEN, AND IT'S HAPPENED ONCE
IN THE PAST, WHAT WOULD OCCUR?
BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT COULD
ACTUALLY IGNORE SUCH A BILL.
THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY
PRECIPITATE A CONSTITUTIONAL
CRISIS.
ASHLEY: RIGHT.
>> AND SIMPLY SAY WE'LL WAIT OUT
THE CLOCK AND THE U.K. LEAVES.
ASHLEY: VERY QUICKLY,
AMBASSADOR, DO YOU BELIEVE THE
U.K. WILL LEAVE WITH NO DEAL IN
PLACE?
IS THAT BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN
YOUR MIND, VERY QUICKLY?
>> I THINK IT'S HIGHLY LIKELY
THE U.K. WILL LEAVE WITH NO
DEAL.
ASHLEY: WOW.
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST.
AMBASSADOR ANTHONY GARDNER IN