[Music] right now a scenario we would all like to see is the fall of Putin and the collapse of
his entire regime at the end of the day this is one of the reasons behind the sanctions program
to turn Russian Elites against the great leader so we are talking about a campaign of isolation
that goes far beyond trade the goal is to get to the heart of all Russians for example four
years ago Russia was hosting the World Cup in the upcoming one in Qatar they are not
even allowed to participate however Putin himself is also starting to play too much
with the emotions of his people check this out Putin's call app fuels Russian's anger protests
and violence to give you an idea according to Forbes more than 700 000 Russians left
the country in just the two weeks following the announcement of mobilization can we trust these
numbers well the truth is that it's relatively easy to count them you just need to add up the
figures given by the host countries of course there might be errors but in theory it seems
reasonable to think that hundreds of thousands of Russians are fleeing the recruiters we have also
seen all sorts of Street protests and campaigns on the internet think about it it's one thing
to support a war you see on TV accompanied by the appropriate propaganda is quite another to
support a war where you are going to be told to fight on the front lines yourself [Music]
and the truth is that this is not the first time that this has happened in Russia that's right if
we look at a little bit of History we'll see that before Ukraine Russia has carried out
two large mobilizations one in World War II and another one in World War One during World War
II almost all Russians understood that they had to fight after all they were being invaded by
Germany however the mobilization in World War one ended really badly for the gremlin in this
case a military Mutiny broke out a mutiny that was key to the fall of the SARS and the rise
of the Bolsheviks that's correct in today's video we're going to look at in detail what
happened in Russia in 1917. so the question is what does the Russia of the tsars and Putin's
Russia have in common could the war in Ukraine bring about regime collapse like the one that
brought about the Revolutions of 1917. today on visualpolitik we're going to answer all
of these questions but first obviously we need to look at some history [Music]
the February Revolution
no I have not made a mistake I did just say the February Revolution and not the
October Revolution which is the one we all know about and the fact is that months before the
Communists took control of Russia another Revolution took place this time a liberal
Revolution so you may be wondering what exactly happened let's find out the Russian Empire was
going through a period of extreme decadence at the beginning of the 20th century the reforms
to modernize Russia and bring it closer to other European powers had been cut short with
the assassination of Tsar Alexander II his successor Alexander III returned to the old
formula employed by the romanovs for three centuries a mixture of Orthodoxy autocracy
and nationalism that is the classic idea of saris Russia based on loyalty to the Romanov
Dynasty government traditional religious faith and glorification of the motherland
his son Nicholas II did even worse he first waged a war with Japan that led to one of
Russia's greatest historical humiliations the discontent provoked the revolution of 1905 in
which the Tsar made some symbolic concessions such as the creation of the Duma a parliamentary
assembly that when it came down to it lacked real power but later in 1914 he became the defender
of Serbian nationalism and involved Russia in the Great War the first world war Russia faced
Germany and the austro-hungarian empire in the war despite initial victories over the austrians
the Russian army was crushed by Germany causing thousands of casualties the front was stabilized
and Tsar Nicholas II left for the front to lead his troops despite the success of the brulasov
offensive based on half a million casualties Russia was soon cornered again to suffer defeat
after defeat 1917 began in Russia with a very cold weather and high inflation the majority
of workers in Saint Petersburg or petrograd as it was known then had to choose between freezing or
trying to keep warm at the risk of starvation since an egg cost four times as much in 1914
and butter five times as much in addition to food shortages and extreme poverty 1.7 million Russians
had died in the war another 5 million were wounded 1.5 million had been taken prisoner
and just as many had deserted from the Army the protests were continuous and more and more
numerous and no we're not talking about the Bolshevik Revolution we are talking about the
one that took place months before this was not a Communist Revolution but a liberal Revolution
in this case the Tsar tried to put down the Revolt by force but the various garrisons
of Saint Petersburg revolted and disobeyed the orders received a week later Nicholas II
abdicated sarism was replaced by a provisional government that was decided to continue Russia's
participation in the Great War while respecting the international alliances in which Tsar Nicholas
II had involved the country the problem with this provisional government was that it was
very weak and the streets the petrograd Soviet a sort of workers and soldiers Council in what was
then the Russian Capital today Saint Petersburg was becoming more and more powerful while the
most radical revolutionaries the Bolsheviks were gradually growing stronger in the petrograd Soviet
the Russian provincial government was composed of liberal politicians moderate socialists and
socio-revolutionaries like Alexander kreninsky who soon became minister of War and the Navy
at the head of the army karensky played an All or Nothing Game what did this desperate
attack to avoid defeat in the war consist of well we're going to look at that right now
the karensky offensive [Music] Russia had committed itself along with allies to launch
an offensive to divide the attention of the German and austro-hungarian enemy on two fronts but the
Russian army was not at its best discipline had fallen sharply after the abdication of the Tsar
the troops didn't trust the commanders because of the enormous number of casualties suffered by
the Russian army in addition the large number of casualties had two fundamental consequences for
Russia firstly although the soldiers were still primarily of peasant origin the latest conscripts
in 1916 had begun to include middle-aged men secondly and more importantly the new recruits
were being sent to the front with less training than their predecessors so they were cannon fodder
does this sound familiar at all exactly we're not going to say that history is repeating itself but
it is clear that there are a number of parallels Putin's new troops will suffer heavily in Ukraine
as they will have basically no training UK Intel says in 1917 this lack of preparation
also affected the officers particularly in the lower ranks the senior officers were aware of
all this and complained about the poor ability of the new commanders and the poorer quality of the
reinforced received but wait a moment because they still had to deal with an even greater problem
the new arrivals at the front were opposed to the war and thought that the failure of the
karensky offensive would sink the provisional government and would serve to achieve peace
more quickly something similar to what many Russians in Ukraine might be thinking right
now Russian propaganda has sold the invasion of Ukraine as a military operation to fight fascism
in the neighboring country Russians therefore see the intervention in Ukraine as something
completely unrelated to the day-to-day life of their own country in the earliest 20th century
Russians also did not consider World War one as an existential issue this is something that the
Russia of the SARS and Putin's Russia have in common the lack of a clear ideology in running
the country it is clear that ukrainians are struggling to survive as a country they want
to be independent and have a democratic political system similar to that of the European Union but
what are the Russians fighting for unlike the Soviet era today the Kremlin lacks such
a clear ideology as communism in other words the Soviets wanted to spread their Revolution
to every corner of the planet putinism however has no such International aspirations Britain's
approach is purely nationalistic it is based on the idea that there is nothing better in
life than being Russian the old romantic notion of nationalism already exploited by the tsars
however in the 21st century this is not enough motivation to compel citizens to go to the front
and even less when you consider the conditions in which the Kremlin sends its men anger mounts
as Russian draftees thrown into battle without training equipment the karensky offensive failed
when Russian soldiers mutinied and refused to continue fighting these insubordinations gave
Germany time to reinforce its front and launch a counter-offensive far from bolstering the morale
of the Russian army the offensive proved that the morale of its troops was at rock bottom
and that none of the generals could count on the soldiers under their command to execute the orders
that they were being given [Music] problems were piling up for the Russian provisional government
which by then had been pinned down for several months thanks to the brilliant idea the German
enemy had come up with because someone thought let's see if Lennon wants to negotiate peace
with us why don't we take him out of his Exile in Switzerland and bring him to Russia and as we say
here on visualpolitik no sooner said than done in April of 1917 a crucial historical train journey
took place Vladimir Landon traveled from Zurich to petrograd he traveled more than three thousand
kilometers on 1864 miles something that would have been impossible in the midst of the world
war without German help but Berlin's Ambitions were quickly rewarded upon his arrival in Saint
Petersburg Lennon announced the April Theses he promised that the Bolshevik came to power
Russia would emerge from the war give the land to The Peasants and power to the proletariat it was
the era of the historic slogan all power to the Soviets that's what it is like to have access to
a mass agitator like Lenin he knew perfectly well what the Russians wanted to hear today
the opposition to Putin does not have a leader a role model to unite the Russian discontent with
the war and no one seems to be supporting the Russian opposition at least not with the same
intensity and above all with his many rubles as the Kaisers Germany placed in the hands of
the Bolsheviks a century ago Edward Bernstein a German politician who is considered one of
the fathers of social democracy claimed that the German government financed the Bolsheviks between
1917 and 1918 with about 10 million dollars of the time to help them take power today Western
support is concentrating on propping up the Ukrainian government but supporting the Russian
opposition was very effective a century ago so how did the Bolsheviks seize power check this out
the October Revolution [Music] after the failure of the offensive the provisional government led
by karensky tried to reorganize the Army by placing lavar cornelov in charge this
General fed up with the chaos in which Russia was plunged tried to establish a military dictatorship
to do so he launched a counter-revolutionary coup d'etat karnalov failed but not because
of the opposition of karenzi's provisional government which by this team had really no
power over anyone because no one believed in its Authority cornelov ran up against the Soviets
and fundamentally against the resistance of the Bolsheviks this field coup reinforced the loss
of authority of the officers in the eyes of the troops who saw them as mere representatives of
an authoritarian power that had to be ended it also meant the definitive backing of the
Bolsheviks the most radical revolutionaries who guaranteed that there would be no return
to sarism the Bolsheviks demanded the government grant freedom of movement to the Red Guard we are
talking about detachments of workers who were armed and who would be decisive for the success
of the Revolution the Bolsheviks rallied the workers and soldiers of petrograd to overthrow
the provisional government a new executive was formed led by Lenin which took control
of the countryside and created the Checker a political and Military Intelligence organization
aimed at crushing any dissent what's more as they had promised they signed a peace treaty
with Germany an agreement that meant an ephemeral Independence for the Ukrainian Republic [Music]
the Triumph of the October Revolution started a six-year Civil War the Red Army and the white
Army which comprise all of the enemies of the Bolshevik Revolution confronted each other
the conflict completely devastated the country and culminated in the Triumph of Soviet power
possibly today the conditions do not exist for a revolution to overthrow Putin in other words
who is now the main leader of the anti-putin opposition Alexi navalny unlike Lennon in his
day Nevada is not an exile but in Russian jail so it seems to be somewhat difficult to support
him from the West even so navali's allies continue to move this message was launched
in early October by Ivan's danov navalny's right-hand man who is currently in Exiles
the problem for revolutions is that things have changed a lot since Lennon's time the
control over Society over the communications of dissonance is much greater than it was possible
to have a century ago and another of Putin's advantages is that he is not so worn out in the
eyes of the Russian population fundamentally because of the regime's propaganda which does
not try to convince Russians that the world needs Putin in the same way that for example
chavism extolled Hugo Chavez is very different Putin's popularity has always rested on the
apathy of the people something similar to what happened during the tsarist era Russians have
long understood that politics is Putin's in his friend's business however as the war in Ukraine
is far from going as the Kremlin expected the discontent is producing movements that
months ago were completely unexpected which ones let's take a look right now [Music]
put inoffensive
Kremlin has doubled its bet with the partial mobilization and as you can imagine this does
not come for free as everyone understands except from Chechen kradov going to the front Lanes
is not any fun in general especially without adequate preparation what's more by the time
the draft was announced seven months of War had already passed more than half a year in
which many had seen how their compatriots returned wounded or even dead so some have
dared to raise their voices against how the mobilization is being carried out this is
the case of the president of the Republic of Dagestan the Republic of Dagestan is a Russian
region bordering Georgia and Azerbaijan on the banks of the Caspian Sea well the
governor of this region is the man you see on the screen Sergey milkov Sergey milikov is no
Putin Enemy by any stretch of the imagination he has a high-flying military career he has
risen into a high rank in the National Guard he is now the highest Authority in this region of
Russia however look at what he has said about the recruiting officers of the Armed Forces
foreign
that many of those thousands of young people will not return and leave his
Republic even older but wait a minute because dissatisfaction with how Russia's partial
mobilization has been organized goes far beyond an anecdotal problem in Dagestan
it is an established Trend Russia's poorest and most marginalized regions are the ones that are
risking the most in Ukraine Russia's ethnic minorities lament the war in Ukraine there
are big unknowns about Russian casualties because you know that in Wars transparency
is the first casualty but there is research that clearly indicates that soldiers from
the poorest regions of the Federation such as on the border with Mongolia and Dagestan itself are
disproportionately represented among Russian casualties similarly very few young men from
the country's major capitals are dying in the war undoubtedly a smart move on Putin's
part because maintaining the Loyalty of the elites will keep him in power Revolutions
in the 20th century spread from the cities to the periphery and never the other way around
this time there will be no petrograd Soviets but beware of irritating the peripheral republics so
the question is do you think that at some point Putin's regime may fall or do you think that his
control over Russian Society is so great that A revolution is completely impossible you can
leave me your answers in the comments below and of course don't forget that we have new videos
here on visualpolitik every week so subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of our updates
and if you like this video like it so we know all the best and I'll see you next time [Music]