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>>Jim Henson: The race for the Republican presidential nomination
has been very dynamic in Texas and as we sit here and look at the results
of the February 2012 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll
these data are no exception.
We find Rick Santorum way out ahead of the field.
45 percent of GOP primary voters favored Santorum
with his nearest competitor, Gingrich, way back at 18,
Mitt Romney at 16, Ron Paul at 14
with a very thin layer of voters that were determined to say
that they were going to vote for somebody else or simply wouldn't say.
So, one of the things we see here is a real surge
among conservatives in Texas flocking toward Rick Santorum.
Now, part of this could be seen as somewhat ephemeral
and we have to take this with a grain of salt.
When we were in the field in the first and second,
straddling the first and second week of February, Santorum was surging nationally.
He was coming off of a big primary caucus wins
and was really breaking through at the national level
and posing a big challenge to Mitt Romney.
That said, it's not as if the results aren't catching something.
And I think what they're catching is the fact that conservatives
are still the bedrock of the Republican Party in Texas.
You know, these Texas results have to be encouraging for Rick Santorum
particularly at a time that he's trying to ramp his campaign up.
If Santorum can point to chances of success,
you know, a month or two in advance,
all of a sudden it gives him something to go to funders with,
to go to campaign contributors with and say,
I'm a serious candidate, the momentum is with us.
I'm not just a Midwestern conservative. I can also appeal in the South and Southwest.
And that's important for Santorum and
something that I would expect his organization will make something of.
The ongoing turmoil over redistricting in Texas
actually puts a very interesting patina on these results, if you will.
That is, had the redistricting process gone as planned, we'd be starting early voting right now.
There'd be a primary coming up on March 6th and in this alternate universe, if you will,
Rick Santorum would be going in the primary contest with a very commanding lead.
And one that would really be pushing him nationally
and putting a lot of pressure on Newt Gingrich and, of course, Mitt Romney.
That alternate universe is very provisional, if you will.
That is, if Texas was still having a March 6th primary,
the candidates would already be more active here, etc.
But, what it does mean is that if Santorum can hold this position in Texas
on a primary that is now at the back half of the process--
the primary date is still not written in stone, but it looks like it's going to be on May 29th--
then Santorum has in a sense a kind of back stop in the primary process.
I think it's critical for Newt Gingrich to try to use that time to reassert himself
as part of his Southern strategy.
At this point, though, Texas becomes another indication, however,
that conservatives in the GOP both nationally and in Texas
are beginning to move at least for the moment,
toward Santorum and away from Gingrich as the Romney alternative.
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