WELCOME BACK COMING TO YOU LIVE
IN SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ECONOMY A
MAIN FOCUS HERE WE'RE ALSO
WATCHING THE U.K.'S EXIT FROM
THE EUROPEAN UNION.
WHERE DOES THAT STAND?
THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT IS NOW
GETTING CLOSER TO A PLAN IT
COULD DELAY THE EXIT.
JOINING ME RIGHT NOW IS TONY
BLAIR GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US
SO WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR HOW DO
YOU THINK THIS PLAYS OUT?
>> I THINK IT IS REALLY
DIFFICULT TO TELL.
I THINK THE OPTIONS ARE, WE FALL
OUT WITHOUT ANY DEAL AT ALL
WHICH I THINK IS VERY UNLIKELY.
ALTERNATIVELY WE GO BACK TO
AGREE TO PRIME MINISTER PLAN I
THINK THAT'S UNLIKELY TOO.
OR WE GO TO A FRESH REFERENDUM
WHICH AT THE MOMENT DOES NOT
HAVE A MAJORITY BUT MAYBE WHERE
WE END UP.
>> IF SHE, THERESA MAY NEEDS TO
HAVE A PLAN IN TERMS OF TRADE
AND NOT HAVE A HARD EXIT, HOW
CAN SHE DO THAT WHEN ALL OF
THESE COUNTRIES ARE REPRESENTED
BY THE E.U.?
>> BECAUSE THE REAL DIFFICULTY
THAT SHE HAS IS THE PROBLEM WITH
THE DEAL THAT SHE'S PRESENTING
TO THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT IS
THAT IT DOESN'T RESOLVE THE
CENTRAL QUESTION OF BRITAIN'S
FUTURE RELATIONSHIP TRADING
RELATIONSHIP WITH E.U. AND
BASICALLY WE HAVE A CHOICE WE
CAN STAY CLOSE TO EUROPE TO MIN
MINIMIZE FALLING OUT WITH
TRADING SESSION OVER FOUR
DECADES BUT IF WE DO THAT AND
SAY, BOUND BY EUROPEAN'S RULES
THEN KIND OF POINTLESS BREXIT
WHY HAVE YOU DONE IT BECAUSE
WHOLE BREXIT IS TO GET RID OF
THESE RULES.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF WE DECIDE
RIGHT WE'RE GOING TO BREAK FREE
OF THIS TRADING SYSTEM AND WE
SET OUR OWN RULES, THEN YOU HAVE
A PAINFUL PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT
SO THIS IS THE POINT SUSTAINABLE
DILEMMA GOVERNMENT IS IN.
AND THE PLAN OF THE PRIME
MINISTER PRESENTED TO PARLIAMENT
REALLY DOESN'T RESOLVE THAT
QUESTION AND A THAT'S THE
CENTRAL PROBLEM WITH IT.
SO I THINK ONE POSSIBILITY BY
THE WAY IS PARLIAMENT THEN
DECIDES IT WANTS RATHER OF THE
TWO THINGS A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP
OR A DISTANT RELATIONSHIP, BUT
RIGHT NOW I DON'T THINK THERE'S
A MAJORITY OR FOR ANYTHING IN
PARLIAMENT AND SO THAT'S WHY I
THINK --
WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT 30
MONTHS OF NEGOTIATION ALL OF
THIS PARLIAMENT CAN'T AGREE, THE
THE PRIME MINISTER IS,
OBVIOUSLY, IN HUGE DIFFICULTY
FRANKLY, WITH CABINET DON'T
AGREE .
NO CIRCUMSTANCES --
I THINK THE LONG CALL THING IS
YOU HAVE TO SAY TO PEOPLE WHO
MADE ORIGINAL DECISION THE
REFERENDUM OKAY GIVEN ALL OF
THIS DO YOU WANT TO CARRY ON OR
DO YOU WANT TO REMAIN IN THE
E.U.?
>> WHY HASN'T SHE BEEN ABLE TO
ARTICULATE UNCLARITY IT IS
RELOCATING, OUT OF THE U.K. TO
SINGAPORE.
COMPANIES LIKE SEWN GNU
PANASONIC SAYING THEY'RE MOVING
OUT OF THE U.K. YOU KNOW
BUSINESSES CANNOT OPERATE IF
THEY DON'T HAVE CERTAINTY WHY
HAS SHE BEEN SO IFFY ABOUT ALL
OF THIS?
>> BECAUSE I THINK THE PROBLEM
IS THAT HER PARTY IS
FUNDAMENTALLY IN DISAGREEMENT
AND THAT'S THE DIFFICULTY
BECAUSE ONE PART OF HER PARTY
ESSENTIALLY REALLY WANTS TO STAY
IN EUROPEAN UNION, AND OTHER
PART REALLY WANT TO BREAK FREE.
AND SOME PEOPLE SAY WELL LET'S
MAYBE WE DO A COMPROMISE WHERE
WE SAY WE STAY CLOSE IT EUROPE'S
RULES BUT THEN --
THE BIT OF THE QEIVETIVE DOESN'T
WANT THAT EITHER.
SO THE CENTRAL PROBLEM OF THE
PRIME MINISTER HAS GOT IS
FUNDAMENTAL DECISION IN HER
PARTY, AND INDEED IN THE COUNTRY
TO BE FAIR, AN IT IS VERY HARD
TO RESOLVE IT.
>> WHERE ARE MOST IMPORTANT
TRADE DECISIONS THAT SHE NEEDS
TO LOCK UP PUTTING E.U. ASIDE
ARE THERE OTHER TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS THAT SHE SHOULD BE
THINKING ABOUT IN TERMS OF
ENSURING THAT SHE HAS A PLAN
WITH THEM?
>> YES, YOU CAN CERTAINLY
EXPLORE OTHER TRADING OPTIONS.
BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT
VIRTUALLY 60% OF OUR TRADE IS
GOVERNED BY THE E.U. TRADING
SYSTEM AND BY THE WAY, WE
HAVEN'T MENTIONED THIS BUT
THERE'S A WHOLE DIMENSION OF
PROBLEM WHICH HAD IS AROUND
BORDER IN IRELAND BETWEEN
NORTHERN THAT START IN THE UK
AND REPUBLIC THAT IS INDEPENDENT
COUNTRY WITHIN THE E.U.
NOW, THE U.K. AND A REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HAS BEEN EITHER OUT OF
EUROPEAN TOGETHER AND THEN THEY
JOIN ON THE SAME DAY TOGETHER IN
MAY --
I THINK IT WAS MAY 1973.
SO THIS IS ALSO A PROBLEM.
AND BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT TO
RESOLVE THAT SOMEHOW BECAUSE YOU
DON'T WANT TO CLOSE BORDER IN --
IN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN
NORTHERN IRE LAND AND YOU'RE
GOING TO CAUSE REAL PROBLEM ON
ISLAND AND TO THE PEACE PROCESS
THAT WE SPENT SUCH A LONG TIME
GORGETTING.
SO LOOK, THE TRUTHFUL ANSWER IS
NO EASY ANSWER OF THIS, AND YOU
KNOW, IN THE END WE ARE IN A BIG
MESS.
YOIM, I THINK I WANT TO
EMPHASIZE TO AMERICAN AUDIENCE
IN PARTICULAR WHATEVER HAPPENS.
WE WILL WILL COME OUT OF THIS AT
A CERTAIN POINT IT IS GOING TO
BE VERY MESSY.
WHATEVER WE DO.
BUT YOU KNOW BRITAIN WILL REMAIN
A STRONG CAPABLE COUNTRY WITH A
STRONG ECONOMY AND WE'RE GOING
TO REMAIN A GOOD PARTNER.
QUICKLY ON CHINA ARE YOU WORRIED
ABOUT SOME OF THE ISSUES AROUND
CHINA FROM ESPIONAGE TO THE
THEFT OF I.P. TO THE FORCE
TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY AND A THE
TRADE ISSUES?
>> YEP.
AND --
>> WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IT?
>> LIKE I THINK THIS IS WHY I
SAY TO PEOPLE EVEN THOUGH YOU
DON'T WANT TO TRIGGER A TRADE
WAR WITH AND --
AND YOU KNOW, END UP CAUSING A
A --
BREAK DO YOU IN GLOBAL TRADING
SYSTEM AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION
IS NOT WRONG TO PUT THESE ISSUES
ON AGENDA THEY HAVE TO BE PUT ON
AGENDA AND I THINK IT SHALL I
MEAN MY ADVICE TO EUROPE FRANKLY
WOULD BE WITH ALSO TO PUT THIS
ON AGENDA BECAUSE IT'S A REAL
ISSUE.
WITH THE U.S.
BECAUSE IN THE END, LOCK WE ALL
KNOW THAT POWER OF CHINA IS
BEGINNING TO BE HUGE.
ITS ECONOMY IS VERY STRONG IT IS
INTERRELATED WITH OURS AND
POLITICALLY MORE POWERFUL.
BUT WE NEED TO MAKE SURE IT'S
DONE ON A FAIR BASIS.
NOW I HOPE THAT WE WILL GET A
RESOLUTION OF THIS SO THAT WE
CAN DIAL BACK DOWN THE --
THE RHETORIC RIGHT, AND THE
ACTIVITY BUT THE ISSUE HAS TO BE