JOINS US, OF COURSE, FROM HIS
STUDY.
>> EXACTLY.
>> LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN THE
COUNTRY.
LET’S START THIS HOUR WITH THE
"WASHINGTON POST" REPORTING,
THAT OLDER VOTERS ARE UPSET WITH
DONALD TRUMP AND THEY’RE POISED
TO BE POTENTIALLY MORE
INFLUENTIAL IN NOVEMBER.
ESPECIALLY IN SWING STATES WHOSE
POPULATIONS SKEW THEIR WAY, LIKE
FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA, ARIZONA,
MICHIGAN, AND WISCONSIN.
MORE THAN 20% OF VOTERS IN
FLORIDA IN 2016 WERE OVER THE
AGE OF 65.
TRUMP CARRIED THE STATE BY 17
POINTS OVER HILLARY CLINTON.
BIDEN CONTINUES TO CARRY SENIORS
NATIONALLY.
A RECENT QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY
POLL HAS BIDEN UP 10 POINTS
AMONG VOTERS OVER 65.
A FOX NEWS POLL CONDUCTED IN
APRIL SHOWS TRUMP AND BIDEN IN A
DEAD HEAT AMONG FLORIDA’S BABY
BOOMERS.
TRUMP’S DECLINE IN SUPPORT AMONG
FLORIDA’S SENIORS COMES AS THEIR
LIVES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY
IMPACTED BY THE CORONAVIRUS.
ACTUALLY THREATENED.
WHICH HAS SWEPT THROUGH NURSING
HOMES AND RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
ACCORDING TO AN ANALYSIS BY THE
"TAMPA BAY TIMES" IN FLORIDA,
MORE THAN 80% OF THE 2,000
PEOPLE KILLED BY THE VIRUS HAVE
BEEN OVER 65 YEARS OLD.
TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN HAS PUBLICLY
DISMISSED HIS TROUBLES WITH SOME
OLDER VOTERS, ALTHOUGH, AS THE
"WASHINGTON POST" REPORTS, THE
PRESIDENT HAS BEGUN TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE HEALTH AND
ECONOMIC CRISIS IS HAVING A
BIGGER IMPACT OBSCENEN SENIORS.
>> JOHN HEILEMANN, LET’S GO
THROUGH THIS.
I DO LOVE YOUR SHOT.
YOU ARE, AS PAUL McCARNEY WAS
SAYING AROUND THE TIME HE
RELEASED "MAN ON THE RUN," AND
WE WERE ENAMORED BY THE SONG AND
STORY BEHIND IT, "COUNTRY
DREAMER."
YOU AND ME, COUNTRY DREAMER.
>> THAT’S ME.
>> LISTEN, ARI MELBER, LIKE,
QUOTES HIP HOP LYRICS.
I QUOTE PAUL MKcCARTNEY.
>> JOE.
>> YES?
>> IF I WAS DOING MY VERSION OF
"RAM," THIS FEELS LIKE THE
McCARTNEY, LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
A SHEEP OR SOMETHING BACK HERE
THAT I COULD SHEER IN A SWEATER
OR SOMETHING.
FEELS LIKE "RAM" PAUL McCARTNEY.
>> ’71 TO ’73 McCARTNEY,
EXACTLY.
>> YEAH.
>> LET’S TALK, THOUGH, ABOUT THE
ELECTION, THE WAY IT’S LINED UP.
YOU HAVE, OBVIOUSLY, MICHIGAN.
A LOT OF TRUMP POLITICAL PEOPLE
INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE ARE CLOSE
TO -- I WON’T SAY KISSING
MICHIGAN GOOD-BYE, BUT THEIR
OUTLOOK IS VERY GRIM ON
MICHIGAN.
PENNSYLVANIA SLIPPING AWAY.
YOU HAVE THE SCRANTON WILKESBURY
AREA, USUALLY SKEWS FOR
REPUBLICAN BUT IT IS SKEWING FOR
BIDEN.
PENNSYLVANIA, SUBURBS OF PHILLY,
ALL OF IT LOOKING VERY BAD FOR
DONALD TRUMP.
SO YOU GO TO THE SUN BELT.
YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT FLORIDA.
YOU’VE GOT TO LOOK AT ARIZONA.
THERE, SENIORS ARE BREAKING AWAY
FROM DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE, AS
WE’VE ALL SAID, THIS PANDEMIC
DISPROPORTIONATELY KILLS SENIOR
CITIZENS.
TALK ABOUT WHAT -- HOW THAT’S
GOING TO SHAPE THIS RACE THROUGH
THE SHAPER ERSUMMER AND INTO THE
>> I JUST SAID, JOE, TO START,
AND THERE ARE TWO PIECES TO
THIS, RIGHT?
THERE’S THE SIX CORE
BATTLEGROUND STATES YOU STARTED
TO GO THROUGH.
THE THREE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN,
PENNSYLVANIA.
AND THE THREE THAT ARE IN THE
SOUTH, NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA,
AND ARIZONA.
IF YOU LOOK TAT POLLING IN ALL
OF THOSE SIX RIGHT NOW, JOE
BIDEN IS AHEAD IN FIVE OF THEM.
NORTH CAROLINA IS THE ONLY ONE
THAT BIDEN IS NOT.
HE’S BEEN AT NECK AND NECK WITH
TRUMP IN NORTH CAROLINA, BUT
HE’S NOT AHEAD THERE.
IT IS HIS WEAKEST OF THE CORE
STATES.
IT’S FUNNY BECAUSE I HEARD YOU
TALKING IN THE LAST HOUR ABOUT
THE FIGHT ABOUT THE CONVENTION
NOW IN NORTH CAROLINA.
IT IS LIKE TRUMP IS BEHIND IN
FIVE OUT OF THE SIX CORE
BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND THE ONE
WHERE HE IS A LITTLE AHEAD, HE
IS PICKING A FIGHT OVER THE
CONVENTION AND MIGHT PUSH THAT
INTO JOE BIDEN’S COLUMN, TOO.
ON THE SENIOR CITIZEN THING,
IT’S THE BIGGEST DEMOGRAPHIC
DIFFERENCE THAT WE’RE SEEING IN
THIS ELECTION CYCLE SO FAR.
RON BROWNSTEIN, JOURNALIST AND
ONE WHO IS ATTUNE TO DEMOGRAPHY,
CALLS THIS THE BIDEN INVERSION.
UNLIKE MOST DEMOCRATS WHO
TRADITIONALLY DO WELL WITH
YOUNGER VOTERS BUT STRUGGLE WITH
OLDER VOTERS, RELATIVE TO
REPUBLICANS, BIDEN IS DOING WELL
WITH OLDER VOTERS AND BEATING
DONALD TRUMP IN A WAY THAT, IF
THE NUMBERS HOLD, IT MAKES IT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR TRUMP TO WIN THE
ELECTION, IF BIDEN WINS SENIORS
BY TEN.
ON THE OTHER HAND, BIDEN IS
STRUGGLING A LITTLE WITH YOUNGER
VOTERS.
IT IS A SUPER INTERESTING
DYNAMIC, AND ONE WITH A LOT OF
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FALL.
>> PETER BAKER, OBVIOUSLY,
PEOPLE AROUND THE PRESIDENT,
INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE, WOULD
PREFER HE TAKE A DIFFERENT TACT.
WOULD HAVE PREFERRED HE TAKE A
DIFFERENT TACT THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE PANDEMIC.
HAS THE PRESIDENT MADE ANY
MENTION OF THE WEAKENING IN
SUPPORT AMONG SENIORS?
IS THERE ANY PLANS FOR HIM TO
TRY TO TURN THE CORNER ON
SENIORS?
OR IS HIS SINGULAR FOCUS NOW THE
STOCK MARKET, THE BOTTOM LINE,
PUSHING EVERYBODY BACK TO WORK,
REGARDLESS OF THE WHITE HOUSE
GUIDELINES?
>> YEAH.
THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF
CONVERSATION ABOUT THIS TREND
WITHIN THE TRUMP CIRCLE.
NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.
THEY’RE FOCUSED ON IT.
THEY KNOW SENIORS ARE A CORE
PART OF THEIR CONSTITUENCY.
IF HE IS GOING TO WIN
RE-ELECTION, AS JOHN SAID, HE
NEEDS THIS DEMOGRAPHIC.
CERTAINLY WOULD BE BETTER THAN
IT IS RIGHT NOW.
YOU’LL SEE THE PRESIDENT GO
TOMORROW TO FLORIDA, THE SITE OF
THIS CONCERN THAT THEY HAVE VERY
ACUTELY THERE.
HE IS GOING THERE FOR THE LAUNCH
OF THE SPACEX ROCKET IF THE
WEATHER HOLDS.
FIRST TIME AMERICA HAS BEEN BACK
IN SPACE, BASICALLY FROM ITS OWN
OIL, IN NINE
OIL, IN NINE YEARS.
I DON’T KNOW HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO SENIOR, BUT HE’S IN FLORIDA
AND WILL GET COVERAGE FROM MEDIA
THERE.
HE’S HAD EVENTS AT THE WHITE
HOUSE FOCUSED SPECIFICALLY ON
SENIORS IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
NO QUESTION, THAT’S A FOCUS OF
THEIRS.
I DON’T KNOW HOW THEY CAN SIMPLY
GET IT BACK, GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
WE’RE DEALING WITH HERE.
IF THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE
INFECTION RATE, IF THERE IS A
SECOND WAVE IN THE FALL, IT’S
CERTAINLY GOING TO HIT SENIORS
HARDER THAN MOST.
WHAT WE’VE SEEN OUT OF THE
NURSING HOMES, THESE VETERANS
HOMES, HAVE BEEN DEVASTATING.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE CDC AND THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT CAN TARGET THESE
HOMES IN A MORE SUCCESSFUL WAY
THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.