WE ARE UP 207, DOW FUTURES.
>>> NOW THIS.
LOOK, HOW ABOUT THE PRICE OF
OIL.
40 BUCKS A BARREL AS WE SPEAK.
LET’S BRING IN THE WORLD’S
AUTHORITY ON OIL.
THAT WOULD BE DANIEL YERGEN WHO
JOINS US RIGHT NOW.
DANIEL, WILL THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION END AMERICA’S
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE AND
AMERICA’S ENERGY DOMINANCE?
>> I DON’T THINK SO YET.
I THINK THERE’S A BATTLE THAT’S
GOING TO GO ON WITHIN THE NEW
ADMINISTRATION ABOUT WHAT TO DO.
I THINK IT HAS A LOT OF MOMENTUM
STILL TO IT AND A LOT OF THE
CONTROL OVER WHAT HAPPENS TO OIL
IS ACTUALLY AT THE STATE LEVEL.
I THINK THE BIG QUESTION
ACTUALLY IS WHAT YOU WERE KIND
OF HINTING AT BEFORE, WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE PRICE AND WHETHER
THE PRICE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENCOURAGE THE CONTINUING SCALE
OF INVESTMENT THAT’S NEEDED.
STUART: WHAT DO YOU THINK’S
GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE PRICE?
>> I THINK THAT THE PRICE IS
STUCK RIGHT NOW, WE MIGHT CALL
IT VIRUS ALLEY.
IT’S BOXED IN.
THERE ARE SOME POSITIVE SIGNS,
VERY INTERESTING THAT WE ARE
SEEING OIL DEMAND IN BOTH INDIA
AND CHINA, WHICH ARE THE TWO BIG
GROWTH MARKETS, ACTUALLY UP
COMPARED TO WHERE THEY WERE LAST
YEAR, AND OF COURSE, THERE’S A
VACCINE HOPE BUT THEN REALITY
SETS IN THAT THE VACCINE IS NOT
TOMORROW.
THE DOWNSIDE, STUART, IS WHAT
YOU SEE IN EUROPE WITH THE
RESURGENT VIRUS AND IN THE
UNITED STATES, AND I WAS JUST
LOOKING THIS MORNING, WE
SURVEYED 15,000 GASOLINE
STATIONS EVERY WEEK AND GASOLINE
DEMAND HAS GONE DOWN AND IT’S
PARTICULARLY GONE DOWN IN THE
PARTS OF THE U.S. THAT HAVE BEEN
HARDEST HIT BY THE VIRUS.
SO I THINK WHILE THE VIRUS IS
STILL GOING TO CONTINUE TO SIT
ON THE OIL PRICE UNTIL WE GET TO
THAT WORLD CALLED THE VACCINE.
STUART: I’M LOOKING AT GASOLINE
AVERAGE PRICE FOR REGULAR IN
AMERICA NOW IS $2.13 A GALLON.
THAT’S A VERY DEPRESSED PRICE.
HOW MUCH DID DEMAND COME DOWN
FOR GASOLINE IN THE UNITED
STATES?
>> IT CAME DOWN -- IF WE WENT
BACK A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THINGS
LOOKED BETTER, IT WAS DOWN ABOUT
15% COMPARED TO LAST YEAR.
NOW IT’S DOWN ABOUT 20%,
PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THAT AREA THAT’S BEEN
PARTICULARLY HARD HIT AND IN THE
SOUTHWEST, IN TEXAS.
STUART: I’M LISTENING CAREFULLY
TO WHAT YOU’RE SAYING AND IT
SOUNDS TO ME LIKE WE’RE NOT
GOING TO GET BACK TO $60 OR EVEN
$70 A BARREL OIL FOR A LONG
TIME.
WOULD YOU AGREE?
>> I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
HYPOTHESIS, THE BET I WOULD MAKE
RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE ARE REALLY,
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR IS WHEN
WE WOULD START TO SEE REAL
RECOVERY FROM THIS, WHEN A LOT
OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN VACCINATED
AND THE VACCINES DON’T, YOU
KNOW, THERE ARE COMPETITIVE
VACCINES OUT THERE.
I THINK UNTIL THEN, WE WILL LIVE
IN THIS VIRUS WORLD AND THAT
SITS ON THE ECONOMY AND
UNCERTAINTY SITS ON THE OIL
PRICE.
STUART: WHY SHOULD I BUY AN
ELECTRIC CAR WHEN GASOLINE IS $2
A GALLON?
>> THAT HAS BEEN A RECURRENT
PROBLEM.
WHEN GASOLINE IS CHEAP, WHY BUY
IT.
I THINK THAT YOU STILL HAVE TO
SEE THE COST OF BATTERIES TO
COME DOWN AND TO REALLY MAKE IT
COMPETITIVE, AND THERE’S A LOT
OF DEBATE ABOUT HOW FAST THAT
WILL COME DOWN AND HOW QUICKLY
IT WILL HAPPEN.
BUT YOU KNOW, I THINK IF YOU
LOOK OUT TO 2050, THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF ELECTRIC CARS, 2040,
BUT LAST YEAR, TOTAL SALES IS 2%
IN THE WORLD AND THAT’S STILL A
PRETTY SMALL NUMBER.
STUART: OIL IS STILL A VERY
IMPORTANT COMMODITY, IS IT NOT?
>> IT IS INDEED STILL THE SINGLE
MOST IMPORTANT LIFEBLOOD OF THE
WORLD ECONOMY.
YOU DON’T MOVE SHIPS, YOU DON’T
MOVE AIRPLANES, YOU DON’T MOVE
CARS.
ALL OF THAT DEPENDS UPON THIS
CENTRAL COMMODITY AND I THINK BY
2022, WE WILL BE BACK TO THE
DEMAND LEVEL THAT WE HAD IN
2019.
STUART: 2022.
THAT’S A LONG WAY AWAY.
DANIEL, THANKS FOR JOINING US.
SEE YOU AGAIN --
>> NOT THAT FAR, STUART.
STUART: TO ME IT’S A LONG WAY
AWAY.
BUT THERE YOU GO.
AFTER 2020, IT’S A VERY LONG WAY
AWAY.