In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t
have inside information, and we’re not considering the brand value of players. Purely, their
on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Manchester City. Welcome to sensible transfers.
Manchester City have made Premier League history over the last two seasons. They have broken
records for goals scored and points won, and became the first club in a decade to win two
consecutive titles. In holding off an insatiable Liverpool last term, Pep Guardiola’s side
secured their status as one of England’s finest teams in recent memory. However, there
is room for improvement. After two years of quarter-final elimination, they will be hoping
to make a more concerted push in the Champions League this time around. To do that, they
will need two quality players in each position.
Along with full-back and central midfield, goalkeeper has been one of the main positions
of change during Guardiola’s time in charge of Manchester City. Previously the domain
of a pure shot-stopper in Joe Hart, the role is now held down by Ederson, a true sweeper-keeper
who is almost as comfortable on the ball as he is off it.
The Brazilian’s ability to play game-changing passes out from the back have added another
dimension to the team’s build-up. Whereas before they were entirely focused on playing
out short, his long diagonals and balls over the top to Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero
have given City another option against high pressing teams or when looking to counter-attack
quickly. A new number one is not necessary, though
City could do with a more assured second-choice. If Ederson were ever to be unavailable, Claudio
Bravo is not a particularly convincing stand-in. Bravo’s replacement will need to have good
goalkeeping fundamentals, as well as an ability to contribute in build-up play and to support
a high press. One option that emerged looking at the data
was RB Leipzig’s Peter Gulacsi. Playing for a team whose tactical framework is based
on aggressive pressing, he averages an impressive 5.3 recoveries and 1.8 interceptions per 90
minutes. These numbers suggest him to be a proactive goalkeeper perfect for playing behind
a high line. However, his passing isn’t quite suited to Manchester City. In a direct
Leipzig side, he mostly plays long passes out, which explains his relatively low 84.8%
pass accuracy. A more suitable option would be Walter Benitez.
The 26-year-old Argentine is comfortable playing an active role in Nice’s build-up, and his
92% pass accuracy shows him to be a capable distributor. While he lacks the passing range
of Ederson, he is not flustered under pressure and always looks to find a teammate to feet.
His 3.2 recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per 90 aren’t anything to write home about,
though the difference between his actual and expected goals conceded is – last term he
conceded 0.3 goals per 90 fewer than his Expected Goals Against suggested he should have.
Like Benitez, Yann Sommer is a fine shot-stopper. His goalkeeping numbers are similar to Benitez’s,
but his passing and defensive numbers are significantly better. While the Swiss has
a slightly lower pass accuracy, he plays almost twice as many passes on average. He also plays
six times as many passes to the final third, and does so at a higher success rate of 53.8%.
This, along with his five recoveries and 1.7 interceptions on average, highlight his all-round
quality. Commanding, proactive and good on the ball,
Sommer is our pick for this position. Perhaps the most important decision Guardiola
will make this summer is who should replace departed leader and club icon Vincent Kompany
at the heart of defence. Aymeric Laporte is likely to continue on the left side of the
central defensive pairing, but it is unclear if John Stones or Nicolas Otamendi have what
it takes to fill such big shoes alongside the Frenchman.
In order to perform the role well, any incoming centre-back will need to be comfortable playing
on the right side, aerially dominant and good in 1 on 1 situations, not to mention being
progressive with their passing and ball-carrying to penetrate or provoke opposition defences.
One player that fits the mould is Harry Maguire. He wins 67.8% of his aerial duels, which is
more than Kompany, while his 6.2 interceptions per 90 suggest he possesses a good reading
of the game. His 8.1 passes to the final third at a success rate of 77.6% are also noteworthy,
and his 2.5 progressive runs per 90 underline his ability to drive forward with the ball
at feet and commit the opposition. However, various reports have him on the verge of signing/has
signed for Manchester United, so can’t be considered. Although he would fit the role,
were this move to be purported instead. Looking outside of Europe’s top five leagues,
Celtic’s Kristoffer Ajer is one centre-back Manchester City may wish to keep an eye on
for future reference. He’s dominant 1v1, winning 70.7% of his defensive duels and 75.2%
of his aerial duels, and is also keen to progress possession when the opportunity arises, either
through passing or through forward runs. However, he needs to work on his decision-making and
operate successfully at a higher level than the Scottish Premiership before a team like
Man City take a chance on him. Our pick for this position is Kalidou Koulibaly.
Strong, quick and sound in the air, the Senegalese is used to playing in a high defensive line
for Napoli. All of this would help him adjust to Guardiola’s style of play without the
ball. But more importantly, he is excellent in possession.
Averaging 0.9 through passes at a 23.5% success rate, he also plays 9.8 passes to the final
third per 90, finding a teammate with 79.2% of his attempts. Furthermore, he is more effective
than most centre-backs when driving into opposition territory with the ball at feet – he averages
1.7 progressive runs and one dribble per 90, and is successful with 67.6% of his dribble
attempts. Technically, tactically and physically, Koulibaly
is exactly the type of centre-back Manchester City need.
City must start preparing for life after Aguero. While the Argentine is one of the Premier
League’s greatest-ever goalscorers, he is now 31 years of age and on the decline. This,
along with Gabriel Jesus’ failure to live up to early hype, means another striker to
partner or alternate with Aguero is required. This, of course, is extremely difficult to
look for. Aguero has almost everything Guardiola wants in a striker. Quick and a good dribbler,
he can get in behind opposition back lines. Positionally intelligent, he knows what spaces
to occupy to manipulate defences and create space for teammates. An adept mover, he finds
separation between lines and links attacks well. He also gets involved in pressing from
the front and, to top it all off, he is an outstanding finisher.
An outside bet would be Chimy Avila. Last term the 25-year-old’s 3.6 shots per 90
was impressive for a Huesca side that got relegated from La Liga, while his 4.9 dribbles
and 55.2% dribble success were higher numbers than Aguero managed. He also averaged 4.4
defensive duels and 1.6 ball recoveries in the opposition half, which hint he may be
suitable for a more aggressive pressing side. If comparing to another forward, there is
a touch of former City transfer target Alexis Sanchez about him.
Another candidate is Duvan Zapata. Last season the Colombian averaged the same goals per
90 as Aguero – 0.7 – while playing for a far less dominant and attacking team. Crucially,
he only out-performed his expected goals by 0.1 per 90, which means his scoring record
should be sustainable. A powerful frontman, he is adept at beating his marker, averaging
5.5 dribbles and succeeding with 59% of his dribble attempts.
However, our pick for this position is Andrej Kramaric. The former Leicester man is a versatile
attacker capable of playing up front or in a deeper role. Averaging 3.6 shots per 90
and 0.6 goals, he is an astute finisher who gets into good areas through a mixture of
cunning movement and pace. He is superb 1v1, succeeding with 70.7% of his dribble attempts,
and creates chances for teammates, averaging an impressive 1.6 shot assists. Defensively,
he presses intelligently, making 1.5 opposition half ball recoveries per 90 and winning 43.9%
of his duels. With his quality link play, 1v1 capacity,
intense work ethic and accurate finishing, Kramaric would fit Manchester City’s tactical
approach. With a more reliable back-up goalkeeper, a
stylistically suitable replacement for Kompany, and an alternate to Aguero up front, Manchester
City would have two quality players in every single position for the upcoming season. Here
is what our team would look like. Experienced players established in Europe’s
major leagues who would be comfortable operating in Guardiola’s aggressive pressing, possession-dominating
team, these
are sensible transfers.