That's right, as I am sure all of you have heard that on Tesla's Investor Day, Master
Plan Part 3 will finally be presented.
We have been promised the plan for sometime, and the wait will soon be over.
This will likely set the stage for Tesla over the rest of the decade.
I think it is pretty much inferred by most that the overarching theme of the plan will
be about scalability.
Tesla have set massive targets for themselves, such as production at 20 million units by
2030, and equivalent levels when it comes to energy too.
As exciting as these objectives are, they mean considerably more, if there is a path
to achieving them.
That is what I believe Master Plan Part 3 will be mostly about, how Tesla are going
to reach these objectives, and what is required.
So what specifically do I expect we might hear?
Well for mass EV adoption and scalability, we need lower cost EVs that can be produced
at a faster rate.
Therefore I expect the 3rd generation platform to be mentioned.
Perhaps we will get some specifics.
Now Elon did give us a teaser of what we might expect at Investor Day, with a bit Tesla logo
in the background which appears to be comprised of.
https://twitter.com/CorySteuben/status/1623151656538976257/photo/1 It seems pretty much confirmed that these
are stamps from the Model Y.
And in the image we are seeing them at a massive scale, again indicating more about scaling.
But what if it goes further, and is perhaps when Tesla introduce a single casting, which
may very well be what this 3rd gen platform is about.
Rather than a structural pack, stamps, front and rear casting, perhaps Tesla have been
able to consolidate further their castings, reducing more processes and parts.
Ok basically, I just really hope to see more about this next generation platform.
Especially given that we were told it would cost half of what a Model 3 costs.
And if we want to see scaling for autos, then we all know Tesla really does need a lower
cost model.
So it may be the platform we are shown, similar to on battery day how we were shown the front
and rear castings along with the structural battery pack, and how that all fit together,
although at the time, the vehicle did not exist.
Perhaps we might get a similar preview of how all that comes together too.
Or perhaps we might get even more, possibly a preview of the new vehicle.
This is most likely going to be a compact version of a Tesla, but what everyone wants
to know, is will it be one that is for sale for the public, or will it be a purpose built
Robotaxi.
Perhaps we might finally get the answers we've been seeking for that.
Some people are also speculating it might actually be the van.
But personally I think that Tesla are really looking at the mass scale vehicle now.
Tesla's equivalent of Ford's Model T. Even with the massive price cuts we have recently
seen across the current model line up, and with tax credits, not everyone can afford
a Tesla.
This Model 2 as people like to refer to it, will be the car for the masses, one way or
another, whether it costs $25,000 to buy, or 10c a mile to be driven, this will be the
big one.
Hence why I think it very likely to be mentioned as part of Master Plan Part 3.
But like I said at the start, its all very well having these targets and showing future
products, but it's also important to show how they can be achieved.
If there is a vehicle like this, then it will likely be in production at around 4 or 5 million
units a year.
That is quite a lot, so much so, there simply aren't enough resources currently.
The bandwidth for EVs is simply not wide enough to cater to that level yet.
And this is the other major part of what I believe Master Plan Part 3 will be about,
the supply chain.
How will Tesla get all the materials and elements for such scale.
Elon has mentioned that Tesla may get into mining themselves, possibly nickel, but mainly
I think it will come down to lithium.
Lithium refining is the going to be the number one limiting factor when it comes to scale.
Elon has mentioned how they have discovered better, lower cost, cleaner ways of mining
lithium, and lithium is indeed actually an abundant element.
It is the refining of which takes so long, and is capital intensive.
However, Tesla are starting their own lithium refinery in Texas.
Elon claims it will only take 2 years until it is up and running, although people in the
industry say it usually takes 7 years.
So that will definitely be something to keep an eye on this decade.
Tesla have no choice but to take lithium refining into their own hands.
Pretty much all of it is done in China currently, and as demand for lithium ion batteries continues
to increase exponentially, it starts to become a real bottleneck.
Although the lithium required for refining LFP cells is not as difficult or costly a
process, due to the lower energy density.
Progress is also being made with sodium-ion cells, but I get the impression Tesla are
really looking at lithium for their cells, at least at this stage.
Although perhaps Elon will mention new chemistries they are considering for their cells.
Possibly going into Manganese cathodes, which would be a real sweet spot for so many applications,
but we are not there yet.
But there is a chance perhaps they might mention a Tesla in-house LFP cell.
This would be a really big deal and I have often said the most exciting event for me,
would likely be another Battery Day where Tesla announce their LFP cell, and what they
are capable of achieving there.
Elon has even said in the past that he expects about 2/3 of vehicles to be using LFP cells.
Now if we are talking about scaling, and a low cost, high volume production vehicle,
then you might assume that it would be using LFP cells.
However, Elon has also said on 2 occassions that they will not be making a 4680 form factor
LFP cell.
Which may be understandable, as the 4680 factor was designed for nickel cells, LFP comes with
different properties and advantages.
For example the 4680 cell might have been designed more around thermal management, and
the LFP cells may not need to as much, and can be more designed around production speed,
perhaps a large form factor, but that's very speculative.
And if they are mentioning LFP cells, and 2/3 of vehicles will use LFP, then it will
be likely about 100% of energy storage will be using LFP.
LFP is ideal for energy storage, due to the fact the cells are stationary, the energy
density or weight is not a factor.
Elon tells us how much energy storage is going to be required, so again, I expect us to be
told a path on how this can be achieved.
Iron is abundant, so I doubt Tesla have to start mining iron.
I think it will come down more to how they are going manufacturer so many cells.
There is likely abundant iron and lithium in the world to achieve this.
But again that lithium needs to be processed, so hopefully we are given an idea of just
how much lithium Tesla are aiming to refine with their new refinery.
As the refinery is in Texas, it is still in relatively close proximity to Mexico too.
It looks fairly certain that Tesla's next factory may very well be near Mexico City.
So perhaps this factory will also be mentioned, and we are shown what this new facility might
very well be used for.
It was rumored to cost about $10 billion, which would mean it's of an insane size.
Given the building in Texas along cost around $1.1 billion.
Just think how much further 10 times that budget would go in Mexico.
In fact we might hear more about Texas expansion plans too, supposedly we are only about 1/5
the way done on that site.
Obviously we are going to see some expansion in Giga Nevada that has already been mentioned.
Master Plan Part 3 is going to be about thinking big, so we would expect a really big building
to coincide with that thought.
I am not sure what else might be mentioned, perhaps some FSD targets, and perhaps the
gen 3 design more oriented around a Robotaxi.
I would love to hear more details on that, I have so many theories as to what that car
could be, one is that it will possibly just have 3 seats, and be more designed around
single passenger use.
Also with all Tesla have learned about FSD and all the data they have collected over
time, they can now use that to design a car specifically around that.
We could get an update about robots too, and maybe something about expanding their solar,
which really needs to be a major part of a renewable future.
Then possibly we may even get to see a new Tesla product, that is nothing to do with
autos or energy.
Perhaps the product that was hinted at that also uses 4680 cells.
Anyway, that's my take on what I expect to see.
Let me know in the comments what you expect.