GENERATION IN HISTORY.
NEIL: DO YOU WORRY ABOUT THE
TRADE SITUATION THAT SEEMS TO BE
ESCALATING NOW NOT ONLY WITH THE
MEXICANS, LATEST ENTRANT HERE,
BUT WITH THE CHINESE, THAT
ECONOMIC WARFARE MIGHT BE JUST
AS DANGEROUS?
>> I DO.
I WORRY ABOUT IT VERY MUCH.
YOUR POINT ABOUT ECONOMIC
WARFARE MAY BE JUST AS
DANGEROUS, ABSOLUTELY, BECAUSE,
OUR ECONOMY, THE ECONOMIES OF
THE WORLD ARE NOW
INTERCONNECTED.
YOU'RE NOT GOING TO UNWIND THOSE
ECONOMIES.
TECHNOLOGY HAS CHANGED THAT, IF
FOR NO OTHER REASON.
SO YOU LOOK AT THESE TRADE
TREATIES WE'VE HAD OVER THE
YEARS.
FOR EXAMPLE, NAFTA.
I THINK NAFTA HAS BEEN ONE OF
THE MOST SUCCESSFUL TRADE
TREATIES WE EVER HAD.
ASK FARMERS, RANCHERS, PEOPLE I
USED TO REPRESENT IN THE
MIDWEST.
THEY HAVE NEVER DONE SO WELL
BECAUSE OF THAT 20 YEAR TREATY.
THESE ARE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY
BRING PEOPLE TOGETHER.
YOU START DOWN THE PATH OF
TARIFFS AND TRADE WARS, THERE
WILL BE CONSEQUENCES DEFINITELY
BUT THERE WILL BE ALSO
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES THAT
WILL HAVE A DEVASTATING EFFECT
ON OUR ECONOMY, ON ECONOMIES OF
THE WORLD, ON STANDARDS OF
LIVING, WHERE THAT STOPS, WHERE
THAT ENDS, NO ONE IS EVER
ASSURED.
ECONOMIC WARFARE IS RIGHT AT THE
TOP OF CHALLENGES.
NEIL: THE REASON WHY I MENTION
IT, SECRETARY, THE PRESIDENT IS
CONVINCED THAT, AS YOU KNOW
CHINA HAS BEEN TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF US FOR YEARS, GRANTING
SPECIAL FAVORS TO THEIR
INDUSTRIES AT OUR EXPENSE.
THEY SPORTED THIS, WE'RE
RESPONDING IN KIND, GETTING THEM
TO RECOGNIZE IT WILL BE
DIFFERENT UNDER THIS NEW
SHERIFF.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?
>> I DO THINK CHINA TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF THEIR MEMBERSHIP IN
THE WTO.
AS YOU KNOW THEY BECAME A MEMBER
20 YEARS AGO.
>> RIGHT.
>> I DO THINK THEY HAVE BEEN
DECEITFUL.
I DO THINK THEY SHUT OUR
COMPANIES OUT A LOT.
I THINK THAT IS REAL BUT A
MATTER OF HOW YOU DEAL WITH IT,
HOW YOU MANAGE IT, HOW YOU
APPROACH IT.
I DON'T THINK THE WAY IS TO DO
THAT UNILATERALLY, ARBITRARILY
WE'LL TARIFF THE HELL OUT OF
YOU.
NEIL: WHAT IF THEY BUCKLE, YOU
KNOW FAR BETTER THAN I, THEY
BUCKLE, THEY NEED SOME MUCH MORE
OF AN AGREEMENT THAN I DO, THEY
BLINK, WHATEVER YOU CALL IT,
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I DON'T KNOW THAT YOU WANT TO
TAKE THAT CHANCE.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CHINESE
ARE GOING TO DO.
I DON'T READ THEIR MINDS.
I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE IN
THIS COUNTRY ARE THAT SMART TO
KNOW WHAT CHINESE WILL DO.
I'VE DEALT WITH THE CHINESE
MANY, MANY YEARS.
FIRST TIME I MET WITH THEM
191983 AS A BUSINESSMAN.
I DEALT WITH THEM AS SENATOR,
BUSINESSMAN.
WE'VE BEEN AROUND 5000 YEARS.
WE'RE PATIENT.
WE KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH THESE
THINGS.
SO WE HAVE TO COME UP WITH A
SMARTER WAY.
WHY DON'T WE DO THIS WITH
ALLIES, WITH ALLIANCES?
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH CHINA AND
THE BLOWBACK AGAINST OUR MARKETS
IS HAPPENING TO OTHER COUNTRIES
TOO.
WHY DON'T WE TAKE THE FORCE OF
THOSE NUMBERS AND START THERE?
THERE IS A WTO WHICH WAS SET UP
TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THESE
THINGS.
IT IS NOT PERFECT, BY THE WAY WE
HAVE WON FAR MORE CASES IN THE
WTO THAN WE EVER LOST BUT A LOT
OF OTHER WAYS TO DO THIS.
ONCE YOU START DOWN THAT TRACK,
REALLY POTENTIAL WARFARE, YOU'RE
GOING TO HAVE YOUR HANDS FULL.
WHERE THIS GOES AND ENDS UP IS
UNCERTAIN.
I DON'T WANT TO TAKE THAT
CHANCE.
MAYBE SOME DO, BUT I DON'T WANT
TO TAKE THAT CHANCE WITH OUR
ECONOMY IN OUR POSITION AND OUR
STANDING IN THE WORLD.
NEIL: AS A FORMER DEFENSE
SECRETARY ALL THAT, I WOULD BE
CURIOUS TO GET YOUR VIEW ON
NEGOTIATING FROM WHAT THE
PRESIDENT SAYS IS A POSITION OF
STRENGTH.
WE HAVE THE WORLD'S BEST
ECONOMY, PEOPLE CAN DEBATE THAT,
BUT WE'RE IN A POSITION NOW THAT
WILL NEVER BE IN EXTRACT THESE
CONCESSIONS FROM THE CHINESE
AND, RIGHT THE SHIP SO TO SPEAK
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK THAT IS PRETTY
ASSEMBLIES TICK BECAUSE WE HAVE
THE MOST POWERFUL MILITARY ON
EARTH AND LARGEST ECONOMY, WE'RE
IN A POSITION NOW TO MAKE
DEMANDS THAT WE MAY NOT BE IN A
POSITION TO DO LATER.
I THINK THAT IS PRETTY
SIMPLISTIC.
I DON'T THINK THE WORLD WORKS
THAT WAY.
I DON'T THINK THE CHINESE WORK
THAT WAY.
THE CHINESE HAVE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS INSIDE, MANY PROBLEMS.
I THINK THEY'RE JUST STARTING TO
SURFACE.
I THINK THEY WILL HAVE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS FOR A LONG TIME BUT
AGAIN I DON'T THINK THAT IS A
SMART WAY TO HANDLE THEM.
WE, THE UNITED STATES, ARE GOING
TO HAVE A STRONG MILITARY, A
STRONG ECONOMY, A STRONG SYSTEM,
NATION OF LAWS, CONSTITUTION.
WE CAN SELF-CORRECT.
WE'LL BE AROUND A WHILE, UNLESS
WE REALLY, REALLY MAKE STUPID
MISTAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
WE'LL BE AROUND A WHILE.
LET'S PLAY NOT JUST FOR THE
SHORT TERM BUT FOR THE LONG
TERM.
I'M NOT SURE WE ALWAYS THINK
THAT THROUGH IN OUR FOREIGN
POLICY, OUR MILITARY DECISIONS
AND BUSINESS DECISIONS AS WELL.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, THE PRESIDENT
HAS BEEN LOOKING AT THE CROP OF
CANDIDATES WHO WANT TO CHALLENGE
HIM, SECRETARY, SAYING THAT THEY
DON'T HAVE A CHANCE, EVEN
REFERRING TO JOE BIDEN, SLEEPY
JOE, WHATEVER HE CALLS HIM, BUT
THAT IT IS NOT, IT WILL NOT BE A
THREAT GIVEN STEWARDSHIP OF
IMPROVING ECONOMY, STRONG
MARKETS, STRONG DEFENSE, IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE HIM OUT.
NORMALLY HISTORY SHOWS IF YOU'RE
OVERSEEING AN ECONOMY THAT
STRONG OR MARKETS THIS RESILIENT
YOU DO GET REELECTED BUT HE IS
IN A BATTLE.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT?
>> WELL, FIRST WE HAVE
YEAR-AND-A-HALF TO GO BEFORE THE
ELECTION.
IS THERE ANYONE OUT THERE THAT
THINKS NOT MUCH IS GOING TO
HAPPEN IN THE NEXT
YEAR-AND-A-HALF THAT WILL AFFECT
THAT ELECTION?
OH, THERE WILL BE PLENTY TO
HAPPEN.
BOTH GOOD AND BAD.
SOME OF IT MAY BE DISASTEROUS
OVER NEXT YEAR-AND-A-HALF.
IT WILL AFFECT THE PRESIDENTIAL
OUTCOME AND CONGRESSIONAL OUT
COME NOVEMBER OF NEXT YEAR.
THAT IS WHERE I START.
SECOND, WE HAVE MONTHS AND
MONTHS TO GO BEFORE THE
DEMOCRATS EVEN GET CLOSE TO
DECIDING WHO THEIR CANDIDATE IS.
NEIL: DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE
BIDEN?
>> OH, I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL.
NEIL: YEAH.
>> I THINK JOE BIDEN HAS A LANE
KIND OF BY HIMSELF.
I THINK HE IS IN A GOOD SPOT,
BUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, I
DON'T KNOW.
I CAN TELL YOU THIS, IN ALL THE
ELECTIONS THAT I HAVE WATCHED
AND PARTICIPATED IN OVER THE
YEARS NO TWO ELECTIONS ARE EVER
THE SAME.
2016 IS DIFFERENT.
IT WAS VERY DIFFERENT FOR ALL
THE REASONS WE KNOW.
EVERYBODY LAUGHED AT TRUMP.
NOBODY SAID HE COULD BE ELECTED.
AND HE IS PRESIDENT TODAY.
2020 IS A DIFFERENT, GOING TO BE
A DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT, TOTALLY
THAN 2016.
HOW THAT ALL STARTS TO CUT,
WHERE THAT GOES.
IF I WAS PRESIDENT TRUMP, I
WOULDN'T BE TOO SANGUINE ABOUT
THIS ECONOMY BEING THE SAME AND
WHERE WE ARE TODAY WHERE WE'RE
GOING TO BE IN THE
YEAR-AND-A-HALF.
I DON'T KNOW.
IF HE CONTINUES TO DOWN THE
TRACK THAT HE HAS BEEN ON
TARIFFS AND TRADE WARS AND
THREATS AND DEMEANING OUR
PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES AND
FRIENDSHIPS IN NATO, I DON'T
KNOW HOW THAT IS GOING TO CUT.
YOU'RE SEEING REPUBLICAN SENATE
GET THEIR BACK UP FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 2 1/2 YEARS ON --
NEIL: BUT NOT THE SAME
REPUBLICAN PARTY, RIGHT?
>> IT IS NOT.
NEIL: REPUBLICAN, DNA YOURSELF,
ARE YOU WORRIED THAT GEORGE WILL
IS RIGHT, REPUBLICAN PARTY, HE
IS NO FAN OF THE PRESIDENT,
PUTTING THAT IN CONTEXT, THAT
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS BECOME
MORE OF A CULT?
>> WELL, I THINK WILL MAKES VERY
GOOD POINTS.
I HADN'T READ ALL OF HIS BOOK, I
READ SOME OF IT, I READ THE
COLUMNS, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN I
FIRST BECAME A REPUBLICAN, I'M
STILL A REPUBLICAN, I'M NOT SURE
WHAT THAT MEANS TODAY, WE WERE A
PARTY OF INTERNATIONAL
ENGAGEMENT, FISCAL
RESPONSIBILITY AND FREE TRADE.
I DON'T THINK YOU CAN APPLY
THOSE THREE TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY TODAY.
AS A MATTER OF FACT JUST THE
OPPOSITE.
SO YOU'RE RIGHT, THAT IS A GOOD
POINT.
IT'S A DIFFERENT REPUBLICAN
PARTY.
BY THE WAY LOOPING THIS BACK TO
WORLD WAR II, I SAW THE CONGRESS
OF THE UNITED STATES
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE WHEN THE
WORLD WAR II GENERATION LEFT THE
STAGE.
WHEN I GOT TO THE SENATE I WAS
FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO WORK WITH A
LOT OF WORLD WAR II VETERANS.
THEIR STATURE, THEIR COMMON
SENSE, THEIR JUDGMENT, ALWAYS
PREVAILED FROM STOPPING A LOT OF
DUMB THINGS, BOTH DEMOCRAT AND
REPUBLICAN PARTIES.
ONCE THEY LEFT THERE WAS NO
ANCHOR.
WE KIND OF CAME LOOSE OF OUR
MORINGS ESPECIALLY THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY DID, I THINK.
SO I THINK YOUR POINTS ARE VERY
GOOD ONE.
I DON'T KNOW HOW ALL THIS PLAYS
OUT OVER NEXT FEW YEARS.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY IS.
IT IS NOT THE PARTY THAT I ONCE
SERVED IN IN THE UNITED STATES
SENATE.
NEIL: SECRETARY, REALLY ENJOYED