>>> IF SPENDING MEASURE FALLS
APART THEN EVERYONE'S GUESSES
ABOUT TAX CUTS AND EVERYTHING
ASSOCIATE EDITOR JOHN BUSSEY
"REAL CLEAR POLITICS" NATIONAL
POLITICAL REPORTER CAITLYN HUEY
BURNS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I DON'T KNOW.
THE FIRST LAW OF BUREAUCRATIC
PHYSICS MOMENTUM IS YOUR FRIEND.
NEIL: RIGHT.
>> THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING
TO HAPPEN THE REASONS WE HEARD.
THEY WILL NOT WANT TO SAY --
NEIL: SPENDING MEASURE.
THEY WILL COBBLE TOGETHER
SOMETHING.
>> COBBLE TOGETHER SOMETHING FOR
COUPLE WEEKS.
JANUARY.
SO TOO FOR TAX REFORM.
THEY'RE VERY KEEN TO STAY UP ON
THE SURF BOARD, ON THE WAVE OF
THIS ONE.
AND THERE IS MOMENTUM IN
CONGRESS NOW FOR IT.
NEIL: YEAH, SPEAKING OF
MOMENTUM, WE GOT A LITTLE BIT OF
THAT ON BOARD THAT JOHN McCAIN
IS GOING TO VOTE NEXT WEEK,
PRESUMABLY FOR IT.
I'M NOT TAKING A LEAP HERE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> MOMENTUM IS CRUCIAL.
ESPECIALLY SINCE NEXT YEAR THEY
WILL BE DOWN ONE SENATE SEAT,
RIGHT, WITH DOUG JONES BECOMING
THE DEMOCRATIC SENATOR FROM
I THINK BEYOND THIS THE
CHALLENGE FOR REPUBLICANS IS
MULTIDIMENSIONAL THEY NOT ONLY
HAVE TO GET THE TAX BILL PASSED
IS VERY UNPOPULAR.
NOW PAUL RYAN EARLIER THIS
MORNING ARGUING THAT THE PUBLIC
HASN'T SEEN THE EFFECTS YET.
ONCE THEY DO THEY WILL TAKE A
MORE FAVORABLE VIEW.
AMERICANS DON'T THINK THIS IS
GOING TO MEASURE UP FOR THEM.
THEY'RE ANGRY ABOUT THE FACT, AS
YOU KNOW, JOHN, THAT THE
CORPORATE CUTS ARE PERMANENT.
THEIR MONEY WILL NOT BE WHAT THE
CORPORATIONS ARE GETTING.
THEY'RE FACING, THAT IS,
REPUBLICANS, A WALL OF
PEOPLE DON'T EXPECT THIS COULD
BE A BIG TAX CUT FOR, YOU KNOW,
IN THEIR PAYCHECKS.
I THINK THEY'RE COUNTING ON
SEVERAL THINGS.
ONE IS THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE
SOME TAX CUTS.
YOU WILL GET A LITTLE MORE IN
YOUR PAYCHECK AT A MINIMUM FOR
MOST PEOPLE.
BUT THEN, THAT, IF THE TIDE
TO 401(k)S, IF PEOPLE ARE
INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET.
A LOT OF PEOPLE AREN'T.
IF THEY'RE INVESTED IN THE STOCK
MARKET, HEY, LOOK, WE'RE LIFTING
VALUES FOR YOU.
SO YOU'RE GETTING --
NEIL: WHY HASN'T THAT IMPROVED
WOULD HAVE SOME ADVANTAGE BUT IT
REALLY HASN'T?
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE TAX BILL
IT IS FRAMED IN POLITICAL TERMS
CONGRESS AND FOR THE
WHITE HOUSE.
WHEN YOU TAKE IT OUT OF THE
POLITICAL CONTEXT PERHAPS THEY
CAN.
HE CAMPAIGNED AS POPULIST.
THIS BILL ISN'T REALLY IN LINE
WITH A LOT OF THINGS HE TALKED
ABOUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
SO THERE HAS BEEN A DISCREPANCY
OF SORTS IN THAT WHETHER HE CAN
BE THE CHIEF SALESMAN ON THIS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN HIS OWN POLL
NUMBERS ARE LOW, THAT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN.
NEIL: WE HAD PHIL GRAHAM ON
YESTERDAY INSTRUMENTAL IN THE
REAGAN TAX CUTS, SAID IN HIS
BEST SOUTHERN VOICE, NEIL, YOU
DON'T WANT TO DELAY ANYTHING.
THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT A DELAY
REPUBLICANS BACK THEN IN '82
LOST OVER TWO DOZEN SEATS
BECAUSE OF THAT.
HE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THAT
HAPPENING AGAIN.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
THAT IS THE CLICKING CLOCK YOU
HEAR SHORT TERM.
NEIL: RIGHT.
>> THE LONGER-TERM TICKING CLOCK
REMAINS FOR THIS BILL IS THE ONE
TRILLION DOLLARS IT ADDS TO THE
DEFICIT ACCORDING TO THE
BIPARTISAN JOINT COMMITTEE ON
THAT?
NEIL: GROWTH WILL GET US PAST
THAT.
>> EXACTLY.
>> GROWTH WILL TAKE CARE OF IT.
WE BEGAN TO HEAR THAT THIS
MORNING PAUL RYAN WE'RE GOING TO
ATTACK WELFARE REFORM.
WE'LL DO SOMETHING WE SAID IN
THE PEOPLE ZONE.
ENTITLEMENTS IN GENERAL.
I DIDN'T HEAR THE WORDS
SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE,
MEDICAID, HE DIDN'T USE THOSE
WORDS BUT YOU GOT TO THINK --
NEIL: ONLY WAY TO GET A HANDLE.
>> EXACTLY.
NEIL: YOU MENTIONED PAUL RYAN
THE SPEAKER, "POLITICO" IS
REPORTING, I DON'T WANT TO HIT
YOU BROADSIDE, THAT HE WILL
RETIRE AFTER THE 2018 ELECTIONS.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?
>> WE KNOW FROM JOHN BOEHNER'S
TENURE THERE IS NOT A JOB HE
PARTICULARLY ENJOYS INTO THIS
CLIMATE.
NEIL: HE WAS DRAGGED INTO IT.
>> EXACTLY.
HAS GROWN INTO IT.
ALTHOUGH THE POLITICS ARE TOUGH
HERE, RIGHT?
IF HE CAN GET THIS, PAUL RYAN
WANTED TO TAX REFORM FOR A LONG
TIME.
NEIL: NOT RETIRE FROM THE
SPEAKERSHIP, BUT RETIRE FROM
CAPITOL HILL ALL TOGETHER.
BUT GO AHEAD.
>> RAISES QUESTIONS WHAT HIS
AMBITIONS WOULD BE BEYOND
CONGRESS.
THIS IS THANKLESS JOB FOR
CERTAIN.
HE HAS HAD A LOT OF OTHER JOBS.
BUDGET COMMITTEE CHAIR WITHIN
CONGRESS.
NEIL: I ALWAYS THOUGHT HE WAS A
MAN IN TOUGH PLACE.
HE WAS MITT ROMNEY'S RUNNING
MATE.
HE WAS ALWAYS IN THIS KIND OF A
TASK THAT BRIDGE BETWEEN THE
ESTABLISHMENT OR THE RENEGADE
PART OF THE PARTY, I DON'T KNOW
WHAT IT IS BUT OBVIOUSLY TIRING,
AGING POSITION TO BE IN.
>> REMEMBER WHEN HE TOOK THE
JOB, HE GOT EVERYBODY TOGETHER,
I WILL SET OUT BASIC GROUND
RULES EVERYBODY HAS TO AGROW TO
BEFORE I TAKE THIS JOB.
IN OTHER WORDS HE WAS, HE WAS
ALREADY DEFINING IT AS SOMETHING
GOING OUT ON TOP.
NEIL: PAUL RYAN'S OFFICE IS
IT HAS SLICED SOME ADVANCES IN
THE DOW.
I'M NOT SAYING EXCLUSIVELY THAT.
WE WERE UP 60 POINTS.
NOW WE'RE UP EIGHT 1/2.
THIS MIGHT BE AMONG THE REASONS.
>> WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT THE
MIDTERMS.
IF REPUBLICANS ARE BRACING FOR
LOSING LOTS OF SEATS NEXT YEAR,
POTENTIALLY LOSING HOUSE,
DEMOCRATS THINK THEY HAVE MORE
MOMENTUM AFTER THESE PAST TWO
ELECTIONS IN VIRGINIA AND
ALABAMA, I'M WONDERING HOW THAT
FACTORS IN?
WHAT SIGNALS THIS SENDS ABOUT
MAJORITY.
NEIL: ALABAMA IS ONE-OFF
REGARDLESS WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT
THAT.
DEMOCRATS ARE POUNCING A SIGN
SOUTH COULD TURN.
NEIL: GEORGIA RACE.
SO YOU MAY BE RIGHT IN THAT
ALABAMA WAS A ONE-OFF, YOU HAD
PARTICULARLY UNATTRACTIVE
CANDIDATE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE
FOR A LOT OF VOTERS.
BUT IT WAS, IT WAS, WHAT IT
POINT OUT IN VIRGINIA.
IT WAS WOMEN.
>> AND YOUNG PEOPLE.
BEEN VERY EAGER TO RE-ENGAGE IN
THE POLITICAL PROCESS.
BOY, DID YOU SEE THEM ENGAGED.
NEIL: WE'RE LOOKING A TAX CUT IF
IT PASSES PRESIDENT SAYS BY
FEBRUARY YOU WILL SEE IT IN YOUR
PAYCHECK.
IF ENOUGH PEOPLE DO, WILL THAT
CHANGE THEIR MIND AND HELP
REPUBLICANS?
>> I THINK NO MATTER WHAT, IF IT
PASSES, AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL,
THIS IS DEFINITELY A VICTORY FOR
THE REPUBLICANS.
SOMETHING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO
CAMPAIGN ON.
AND DEMOCRATS WILL CAMPAIGN
AGAINST.
>> LOOK AT VOTES THOUGH, ON THE
TAX BILL.
MEMBERS IN CALIFORNIA,
NEW JERSEY, AND NEW YORK,
REPUBLICANS WHO ARE FACING VERY
TOUGH RE-ELECTIONS NEXT YEAR IN
DIDN'T VOTE FOR THIS BILL.
GIVES YOU PERSPECTIVE HOW
THEY'RE SEEING WHAT THE