what could actually crash the Florida housing market that's what we're going to talk about today
in this video I'm going to address seven points seven things you really need to be able to wrap
your head around because they may in fact crush the housing market here in Florida now if you're
new to my channel my name is I'm a real estate agent in Sarasota Venice Bradenton in Lakewood
Ranch do me a favor like this video does help out the video's performance and without further Ado
we're going to get right into this video first off what I wanted to talk about is the current
Florida housing market landscape there's a lot of great information on YouTube YouTubers are
really trying hard to give you the most accurate information the best they know it but there's also
certainly lots of misleading videos especially if you go back the last two or three years lots
of YouTubers out there that have been crying wolf saying that the Florida housing market has crashed
and that is just not true prices are holding steady if anything is way down it's a number of
transactions right so we have less homes that are being sold mainly because there's a supply issue
and that's because most people in the United States that have a mortgage have a really good
mortgage interest rate let's look at some stats here so 82 percent have a mortgage interest rate
that's below five percent that's across the United States 62 percent have a mortgage interest rate
that is below four percent the mortgage interest rates right now are just around seven percent
why would these people who have a really good mortgage interest rate sell their home and then
repurchase at a much higher price and we've seen how the mortgage interest rate really impacts the
affordability of purchasing real estate property and so that's the crash that we're seeing it's a
transaction crash if we say there's a crash but absolutely the median price is holding strong it
has not crashed we still have enough demand for the number of homes that are on the market just
look at what the median price is as of June of this year and we're going to compare it to the
same time last year mainly because of seasonality right so we always want to see how it changes year
over year besides kind of understanding what the month over month trend is and so as of June
here in Florida the median price came in at 420 which is the same as was the same time last year
essentially this summer the median price is flat versus the same time last year I actually think
that the performance this year especially into the summer is super strong because last year there
was this massive Rush In q1 And Q2 to purchase a home because most people knew that the mortgage
interest rates were just about to increase and prices really jumped in the first half of 2022
and that's really surprising to me because the affordability of purchasing a house these days is
far less than it was last year now one aspect of Florida and one of the reasons why demand is here
for Florida living still is that the unemployment rate is actually really low it's 2.6 percent as of
June of this year and so the job market is pretty strong as a matter of fact there's more jobs in
Florida now than there is anywhere in the United States and that actually includes New York just
to put this in perspective Florida gained about 300 000 jobs since June of last year which is a 3
point four percent job increase now remote job opportunities has really opened up a lot of
opportunities for especially the younger workers to move down here to Florida avoid state income
tax in a lot of cases be in a warm climate year-round and in many cases it's also more
affordable to live here depending on where they're moving from so Florida's economy is doing really
well Florida has also led the US when it comes to new business creation as of 2020 about 1.7 million
new businesses were started which is an incredible achievement the leading Industries here in Florida
is Healthcare technology Finance construction and then of course tourism so right now there's no
indication that Florida's housing market is going to be crashing anytime soon but what if that all
changes so let's talk about what could actually impact or crush the housing market here in Florida
number one it's the labor market so what you need to know is that as of July 1st there's
a new immigration law that was signed into action and that's the sb1718 law and essentially prevents
and even penalizes those people who are hiring illegal workers undocumented workers in the
State of Florida what you also need to know is that about eight percent of those so the
population here in Florida that live here are undocumented workers many of which have helped
in construction and other markets here in Florida and so the big question is who's going to fill
those shoes and this most likely will cause a liver shortage in certain sectors such as
construction we already have a labor shortage in construction here in Florida and so employers who
are looking to get employees to fill those shoes are most likely going to have to increase their
wages and if the wages are increased the cost will probably passed on to the consumer to us
by higher prices for certain products and services if certain products and services
are going to get even more expensive when the affordability to live here in Florida is at a
historical low with increasing home prices increasing homeowners insurance prices if
there's people leaving Florida if there's less people moving into Florida and you
got Supply Here demand here but now demand is diminishing right but Supply is right
here less people are competing for a specific home the prices are also going to come down
number two is migration to Florida so since covert Florida was the number one state that people
moved to but the rate of moving to Florida that's going to slow in the future just to put things in
perspective in terms of population growth if we go back to 1946 there were about 2.4 million people
that lived in Florida and as of 2022 there's approximately 22 million people that now live
here in Florida in the projection for 2032 is that the population is going to reach approximately 25
million people now the slowdown in population is going to be mainly due to the death that are going
to be outpacing birth there's also going to be less people that are going to be moving to Florida
now a lot of baby boomers during covert since covert have retired many of which have moved
down to Florida and there's still a big portion of baby boomers that are going to be retiring
in the future let's define what a baby boomer is they were born between 1946 and 1964 and
the oldest are now about 77 years old where the youngest is 59 years old now an average
people are retiring anywhere from 65 to maybe 70 years old so you can see that there's still a big
portion of baby boomers that have not yet reached the retirement age but once they're retiring with
affordability being at an all-time low here in Florida and increasing costs such as in the home
insurance Market World they want to continue to come to Florida or are they maybe looking at other
places such as Georgia or Texas or South Carolina North Carolina so here's an interesting fact most
people that left Florida and again more people actually moved into Florida less moved out but
of those people who decided to go somewhere else the majority of them moved to Georgia neighboring
Georgia but here's also something interesting I'm going to show you the top 10 states for migration
to Florida so where did people actually move from that moved to Florida number one state
being New York not surprising right it's just much more affordable to live in Florida versus New
York especially the Big Apple but number two is Georgia so the number two place that send people
to Florida is Georgia even though the number one place that people moved to was also Georgia
that was interesting to me and then there is California number three in followed by New Jersey
with Baby Boomers retiring over the next few years will that cause additional pressure on
the job market because right now the job market is tight and a lot of baby boomers held pretty good
jobs high paying jobs and so if they're leaving in order to bring in talent in in a tight job
market already employers are going to have to get pretty creative here and that also means
spending more money on wages and if employees are getting better paying jobs that may prevent
them from actually wanting to move to Florida so then the question is will this slow down migration
of younger workers to Florida and so there's less demand for Florida living there's going
to be less demand for the homes that are on the market that could push prices down in the future
number five is affordability things have gotten really expensive since covet driven
by inflation Supply issue labor issue now here in Florida some of it seems to be a little bit more
drastic especially when we look at the housing prices in some areas they've literally doubled
since 2020 where before Florida was seen as a very affordable place to purchase a piece
of property it really isn't so affordable anymore before covert the median price in Florida hovered
right below the U.S average and now it's kind of on par with the US average and so for those
people that are looking to move here for more affordable Lifestyles didn't actually think
about it twice and perhaps now all of a sudden places such as South Carolina Georgia see more
learn to them and that's especially true because of our homeowners insurance crisis that we're
doing right now homeowners insurance is literally doubled in some cases tripled over the last two
years and every time there's a hurricane that comes through prices will likely go up because
we all pay into what happens here in Florida it doesn't matter if your house is in Miami and the
hurricane hit on the other side hurricane hit it created a lot of damage we all pay into it right
because insurance companies have to cover their costs Supply and labor issues have also increased
the cost of renovating a home right now here in Florida and that's discouraging especially when
the homeowner's insurance Market is going through a crisis a lot of insurance carriers are saying
well we're not going to insure your home if your towel roof is 25 years old or if your shingle roof
is 12 years old changing roof is very expensive and now we got to factor that in condo or Co-op
and it's three stores and higher and it's an older building now you got to worry about the
Surfside bill as well which basically says that you have to go through a maintenance inspection
you got to make sure that there's enough money in the reserve to ensure that any repair
your needs you got the money to pull from right and so a lot of older buildings are being charged
with high assessments the HOA fees have really really increased in a lot of cases it's these
types of things that are making the affordability of owning a home a lot less attractive than they
were maybe three or four years ago and so if affordability is already an issue if you're
already stretched then Florida or certain parts of Florida may not be the best option anymore
number six is hurricanes flooding will that prevent people from wanting to move here
will more people want to leave Florida right now since hurricane Ian I believe that the majority
of the people who lived here actually stayed in Florida and right now from what I'm seeing what
I'm hearing people are still wanting to move to Florida they might just become more cognizant of
the flood zone so a lot of buyers are asking me about flood zone X they don't want to be in AE
and they also want to be away from the shore what will happen in the future if we're hit with say
another hurricane what if we get another bad one this year what if we get another bad one next year
and it just becomes a yearly occasion where we get major hurricanes that brush through Florida will
people then say you know what this is it I'm not taking the chance anymore I'm going so far away
from Florida where I won't have to deal with hurricanes and then lastly is sea level rising
this is absolutely not a political pitch at all there is some talk that the sea levels are rising
whether you believe it or not there's probably going to be a lot more conversation around sea
level rising across the United States especially here in Florida I've checked some maps that
actually illustrate what would happen 10 20 30 years it's their simulation but these Maps differ
greatly and so right now I don't believe that a lot of people are taking it serious but what
if there's more media attention put on that what is there stronger evidence that the sea level is
rising what if we have more flooding that occurs every year in Florida not only are people going to
be worried about moving to Florida but it's also going to have an effect on homeowners insurance
of course possibly the types of mortgages that can be given I think there's more to come when
it comes to sea level rising and just weather patterns changing how it's affecting Florida
here in Florida by Major economists so this video was highlighting 7.7 challenges that could pose
a risk on the housing market here in Florida theoretically speaking there's really nothing
right now that's deterring me from wanting to live here I absolutely love living Florida I'm
in Sarasota you can't beat the Sun the beautiful beaches miles and miles of beaches that we have no
state income tax warm weather year round they are way more expensive States across the United States
and yes there's also way more affordable places across the United States and so to me it comes
down to location location where you're happiest and if it's Florida just make sure that if you
decide to move here that you can deal with the pros and cons now if you're interested in real
estate in the area I work with call me email me anytime if you have any questions just reach out
anytime and thank you so much for watching today I truly truly appreciate it thank you