CORONAVIRUS UNTIL VACCINES
>>> JOINING US NOW, DIRECTOR OF
THE CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS
DISEASE RESEARCH AND POLICY AND
PROFESSOR IN THE MEDICAL SCHOOL
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA,
DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM.
HE WROTE AN OP-ED IN "THE NEW
YORK TIMES" ENTITLED, HERE’S HOW
TO CRUSH THE VIRUS UNTIL
VACCINES ARRIVE ARGUING, QUOTE,
TO SAVE LIVES AND THE ECONOMY,
WE NEED ANOTHER LOCKDOWN.
>> SO DOCTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH
FOR BEING WITH US.
I OFTEN --
>> THANKS, JOE.
>> -- QUOTED YOU FROM A PREVIOUS
INTERVIEW WHERE YOU SAID MONTHS
AGO WE WERE IN THE SECOND
INNING.
I MOVE THAT UP TO THE FOURTH,
FIFTH INNING, A FEW MONTHS AFTER
THAT.
I THINK I’M BACK IN THE SECOND
INNING.
THIS THING COULD BE AROUND FOR
ANOTHER YEAR OR SO.
WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?
>> WELL, I THINK YOU’RE RIGHT.
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THERE.
THE THIRD INNING.
WE’LL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.
JUST TO REMIND PEOPLE THE
CONTEXT FOR THIS CONVERSATION
THAT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT ALL
THE PAIN AND SUFFERING AND DEATH
AND ECONOMIC DISRUPTION WE’VE
EXPERIENCED TO DATE, ONLY 8% TO
10% OF AMERICANS HAVE BEEN
INFECTED WITH THIS VIRUS, AND
IT’S NOT GOING TO SLOW DOWN
UNTIL WE GET TO AT LEAST 50% TO
70%.
WE CAN GET THROUGH IT THROUGH
NATURAL DISEASE OR THROUGH A
VACCINE.
WE CAN’T COUNT YET ON THE
VACCINE BEING THERE.
WE HAVE TO COME TO GRIPS WITH
THIS VIRUS.
WE HAVE TO LEARN TO DEAL WITH
IT.
WE’RE IGNORING IT THINKING IT’S
GOING TO GO AWAY, AND IT’S NOT
GOING TO HAPPEN.
>> SO TALK ABOUT WHY THE UNITED
STATES HAS FARED SO POORLY WHEN
YOU COMPARE US TO OTHER EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES.
WE WERE WATCHING ITALY CLOSELY,
SPAIN, BRITAIN, VERY CONCERNED.
BUT, MY GOSH, THAT SEEMS LIKE
YEARS AGO.
NOW, OF COURSE, WE’RE CARRYING
FAR MORE CASES THAN THE ENTIRE
EU.
WHY HAVE WE FAILED SO MISERABLY?
>> WELL, I’LL ADD A CAVEAT TO
THAT.
49 STATES AND THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA HAVE FAILED.
IRONICALLY, NEW YORK, THE STATE
THAT WAS ON FIRE BACK IN MARCH,
BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT IT DID
WHAT ALL THESE OTHER COUNTRIES
IN THE WORLD HAVE DONE, IS THAT
WHEN WE HAD SUCH A MAJOR
CHALLENGE, BACK IN MARCH, THEY
LOCKED DOWN IN A WAY THEY DROVE
THE VIRUS DOWN TO THE POINT TO
WHERE IT WENT FROM A HUGE FOREST
FIRE THAT THEN WAS LARGELY
CONTAINED TO NOW CLEANING UP
BRUSH FIRES.
WHAT WE DID IN THE UNITED
STATES, OUTSIDE OF NEW YORK, WE
GOT TO THE FOREST FIRE ABOUT 80%
CONTAINED AND SAID, AH, THAT’S
ENOUGH.
LET’S GO.
IN MAY, WE GAVE UP.
WE WENT FROM 32,000 CASES A DAY
IN MARCH DOWN TO ABOUT 22,000
CASES IN MAY.
BUT HARDLY EXTINGUISHED THE
VIRUS AND WATCH WHAT HAPPENED.
IT CAME BACK UP TO 65,000 CASES
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO.
NOW WE’RE GOING TO COME DOWN
WITH THIS SHORT-TERM CHANGE IN
HOW WE’RE INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER.
I CAN SEE CASES BEING IN THE
HIGH 40s, LOW 50Ss UNTIL WE GET
TO LABOR DAY.
SCHOOLS ARE GOING TO HOPE AT THE
HIGHER ED LEVEL.
HIGH SCHOOLS IN PARTICULAR,
GRADE SCHOOLS, ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEARLY THE PROBLEM.
AND WE’RE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER
EXPLOSION, JOE.
IT’S GOING TO GO WAY BEYOND THE
65,000 LEVEL.
WE JUST DON’T UNDERSTAND THAT. AND THE OP-ED YOU TALKED ABOUT
AND THE OP-ED YOU TALKED ABOUT
THAT I DID, I CO-WROTE WITH NEIL
CASHKARI.
WE DID MARRY ECONOMY AND HEALTH
TOGETHER.
IT’S GOING TO BE MUCH CHEAPER TO
REALLY DEAL WITH THIS AND LOCK
DOWN THAN IT IS TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THESE CASES INCREASE FOR
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 MONTHS.
>> YOU’VE TALKED ABOUT, ALONG
WITH OTHER EPIDEMIOLOGISTS,
OTHER SCIENTISTS, OTHER DOCTORS,
DR. FAUCI, DR. GOTTLIEB, PEOPLE
THAT DEVOTED THEIR ENTIRE LIVES
TO FOLLOWING PANDEMICS.
YOU’VE BEEN WARNING ABOUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN THE FALL.
WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN
THE FLU SEASON COLLIDED WITH
THIS PANDEMIC.
DONALD TRUMP, OF COURSE, SEVERAL
MONTHS AGO SAID IT WAS GOING TO
BE GONE BY THE FALL.
NOBODY -- NO SCIENTISTS OR
DOCTOR THAT I’VE SPOKEN TO
AGREES.
AND DO YOU STILL BELIEVE THAT
THE FALL COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
MOST CATASTROPHIC TIME FOR US
BECAUSE THE FLU SEASON IS GOING
TO COLLIDE WITH THIS PANDEMIC?
>> YEAH, WELL, FIRST OF ALL,
WE’RE GOING TO SEE AN EXPLOSION
OF CASES IN SEPTEMBER, JUST
RELATED TO THE REOPENING OF
COLLEGES, UNIVERSITIES AND HIGH
SCHOOLS.
SO THAT’S GOING TO BE THE NEXT
KIND OF BIG FIRE LINE THAT WE’RE
GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH.
THE SECOND THING IS, IT’S INDOOR
AIR.
INFLUENZA MAY OR MAY NOT BE A
CHALLENGE THIS YEAR.
WE’RE HARDLY SEEING ANY OF IT IN
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.
BUT FOR CERTAIN, INDOOR AIR IS
GOING TO BE A HUGE CHALLENGE.
THE MORE WE’RE TOGETHER INSIDE,
THE MORE WE’RE TOGETHER WITH
PEOPLE WE’LL SEE MAJOR
TRANSMISSION ISSUES.
THESE SUPERSPREADING EVENTS THAT
WE SEE.
SO I SEE THE FALL AS BEING A
KIND OF CORONAVIRUS ON STEROIDS
TIME PERIOD FOR THIS COUNTRY.
AND THAT’S WHY WE HAVE PUT
FORWARD OUR PLAN TO SAY, YOU
KNOW, PAY ME NOW OR PAY ME
LATER.
IF WE LOCK DOWN, GET BETTER
CONTROL LIKE THESE OTHER
COUNTRIES HAVE DONE, WHERE THEY
COULD BASICALLY LIVE WITH THE
VIRUS IN A VERY DIFFERENT WAY
THAN WE ARE RIGHT NOW.
THE ONLY ANSWER, THE FALL IS
GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE.
>> AND YET MIKE PENCE SAYS
AMERICA NEEDS COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
>> WELL, AGAIN, YOU KNOW, DO YOU
WANT TO HAVE BARS, RESTAURANTS,
COLLEGE FOOTBALL, THINGS LIKE
THAT OR SCHOOLS YOU CAN OPEN
MORE SAFELY?
DO YOU WANT TO HAVE YOUR
GRANDPARENTS AND YOUR PARENTS
PROTECTED IN NURSING HOMES?
DO YOU WANT TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A
SENSE THAT I CAN GO OUT IN
PUBLIC SPACES?
SO IT’S CHOICES.
IT’S ALL ABOUT CHOICES.
THIS VIRUS IS NOT MAKING US DO
ANYTHING BUT IT’S ALLOWING US
THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO THE RIGHT
THING AND THAT’S WHAT WE KEEP
ENDING UP NOT DOING.
AND SO I THINK AS A PUBLIC
HEALTH PRACTITIONER HERE, I’M
NOT THE MESSAGE.
I’M THE MESSENGER.
THIS VIRUS IS THE MESSAGE, AND
WE JUST DON’T SEEM TO GET IT.
SO WHAT WE HAVE TO KEEP COMING
BACK TO IS THERE IS HOPE.
WE CAN SHUT THIS DOWN MUCH, MUCH
MORE THAN WE’RE DOING.
BUT WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE
THE MEDICINE TO DO IT.
IF WE DON’T, WE WILL PAY OVER A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE
MEDICINE THAT’S GOING TO BE MUCH
MORE SEVERE THAN WHAT WE’RE
RECOMMENDING RIGHT NOW TO SHUT
DOWN.
>> MIKA?
>> DOCTOR, SO -- OBVIOUSLY ONE
OF YOUR POINTS IS ANOTHER
LOCKDOWN.
AND SOME MIGHT SAY THAT THAT
WILL CRIPPLE THE ECONOMY EVEN
MORE.
AND THAT WILL CAUSE HARDSHIP,
ECONOMIC HARDSHIP WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MENTAL AND PHYSICAL
HARDSHIP AS WELL.
IT’S A BALANCE.
ARE YOU SAYING THE LOCKDOWN MUST
HAPPEN IN ORDER TO SAVE MORE
LIVES BECAUSE SOME MIGHT ARGUE
IT’S MORE OF A BALANCE IN TERMS
OF LOSING LIVES, LOSING
BUSINESS, LOSING LIVELIHOOD.
SUICIDE GOING UP.
THIS IS ONE OF THE ARGUMENTS THE
PRESIDENT MAKES.
>> RIGHT.
>> YOU KNOW, AND MIKA, THIS IS A
VERY, VERY FAIR ARGUMENT.
AND WE ADDRESS THAT IN OUR
OP-ED.
THIS WAS WRITTEN BY ME AS A
PUBLIC HEALTH PERSON BUT ALSO
NEIL KASHKERI WHO MADE IT VERY
CLEAR BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED
SAVINGS WE’VE SEEN, THIS
UNEXPECTED WINDFALL OF GOING
FROM 6% TO 20%, WE CAN FINANCE
ALL OF THE PAYMENT TO KEEP
PEOPLE WHOLE, TO KEEP SMALL
BUSINESSES WHOLE TO KEEP STATE
AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS WHOLE,
JUST THROUGH THAT MECHANISM
ALONE.
NO FOREIGN PAPER, NO NOTHING.
SO WE UNDERSTAND.
WE’VE GOT TO GET US THROUGH
THIS.
THIS IS AN INVESTMENT IN OUR
FUTURE BY GETTING US TO THIS
POINT.
SO IF WE CAN KEEP PEOPLE PAD IF
WE CAN KEEP SMALL BUSINESSES
FROM GOING UNDER, THEN, IN FACT,
WE’RE GOING TO ACCOMPLISH TWO
THINGS.
ONE, CONTROL INGLING THE VIRUS A
TWO, NOT LETTING THE COUNTRY
SINK INTO THIS ECONOMIC DESPAIR.
>> ALL RIGHT.
GENE, JUMP IN.
>> JUST A QUICK QUESTION.
DO YOU THINK WE WILL SHUT DOWN
AGAIN, OR DO YOU THINK WE’LL DO
WHAT WE DID THE FIRST TIME WHICH
IS PUSH IT DOWN A LITTLE BIT,
MAYBE CLOSE A FEW THINGS, SHUT
DOWN AGAIN, AND THEN SAY, OKAY,
WE’RE DONE AND PROLONG THE
AGONY?
ISN’T THAT WHAT WE’RE REALLY
GOING TO DO, LIKELY?
>> WELL, WE ARE.
AND WE CAN SAY WE’RE AMERICANS
AND WE HAVE THIS INDIVIDUALISM
ABOUT US AND WE DO THESE THINGS
THE WAY WE’RE GOING TO DO THEM.
BE DAMNED WHAT THE REST OF THE
WORLD IS DOING.
WE HAVE TO STEP BACK AND SAY NEW
YORK REALLY MESSED IT UP EARLY
ON.
THE CHALLENGES THEY SAW THERE
WITH THAT HOUSE ON FIRE, WITH
THE LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES,
AND THIS IS NOT A PARTISAN
STATEMENT.
LOOK WHAT THEY’RE AT TODAY.
THEY’VE GONE THROUGH ALMOST TEN
WEEKS NOW LEVEL CASES.
THEY’VE HAD DAYS WITH NO DEATHS
IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK.
THIS HAS BEEN REMARKABLE.
AND THEY GOT IT RIGHT.
WE SHOULD LEARN FROM THAT.
SO IF NEW YORK CAN DO IT, WHY
CAN’T 49 OTHER STATES AND THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DO IT?
THAT’S A MESSAGE RIGHT THERE.
WE DON’T HAVE TO TRY TO BE LIKE
EUROPE OR LIKE THE ASIAN
COUNTRIES.
WE JUST HAVE TO BE LIKE NEW YORK
WHICH, FOR MANY PEOPLE, IS GOING
TO SOUND PROBABLY, YOU KNOW,
IRRESPONSIBLE TO SAY BECAUSE
WE’RE NOT LIKE NEW YORK.
BUT I BELIEVE THEY ARE A LESSON
FOR US.
WE CAN DO THIS.
>> THEY ARE THE MODEL.