GREAT TO SEE YOU.
>> GREAT TO SEE YOU, TOO.
WE TALK ABOUT HOW UNCONVENTIONAL
THIS CONVENTION IS.
WE HAVE GOT A WHOLE BUNCH OF
POLLS AS THIS GOES UNDERWAY.
THIS GOT THE MOST ATTENTION
TODAY FROM OUR FRIENDS AT CNN.
THEY SHOWED JOE BIDEN AHEAD OF
DONALD TRUMP BY JUST FOUR
POINTS.
THIS IS THE CLOSEST IT’S BEEN IN
A NATIONAL POLL IN A WHILE.
A LOT OF FOLKS SAYING, HEY, IS
THIS THE START OF A NEW TREND
HERE?
A BUNCH OF NEW POLLS CAME OUT.
IN ADDITION TO THAT CNN POLL
THAT CAME OUT, IN THE LAST 4
HOURS WE HAVE OUR POLL.
A DIFFERENT RESULT.
BIDEN BY 9.
THERE IS ALSO THIS.
THE ABC NEWS WASHINGTON POST
POLL, THEY HAVE JOE BIDEN AHEAD
BY 10 AMONG LIKELY VOTERS.
THEY ALSO HAVE BIDEN AHEAD BY 10
AND THEN YOU HAVE GOT AS WELL
THE FOX NEWS POLL CAME OUT A
COUPLE DAYS AGO, BUT IT WAS
ACTUALLY IN THE FIELD THE SAME
DAYS THAT OUR POLL WAS.
THEY HAVE BIDEN BY 7.
SO SUDDENLY YOU HAVE FIVE
DIFFERENT POLLS OUT.
YOU CAN SEE THAT LEAD FOR BIDEN
RIGHT THERE.
THE AVERAGE OF THESE MOST RECENT
POLLS IS JOE BIDEN WITH AN EIGHT
POINT ADVANTAGE OVER DONALD
TRUMP.
PUT THAT IN SOME PERSPECTIVE.
OF ALL THE CHALLENGERS, THIS IS
THE BEST A CHALLENGER AGAINST AN
INCUMBENT HAS BEEN DOING AT THIS
POINT SINCE BILL CLINTON IN ’92
AGAINST GEORGE BUSH SR.
THAT WAS THE LAST CHALLENGE TO
UNSEED A PRESIDENT.
TRUMP’S APPROVAL RIGHTING HERE
IN OUR POLL SITTING AT 44%.
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR A FEW
YEARS NOW, HE HAS TO GET THAT
HIGHER.
IF HE WANTS TO GET RE-ELECTED.
HE NEEDS TO GET IT TO 47%, 48%.
ECONOMY AND CRIME, TWO ISSUES
WHERE TRUMP STILL LEADS BIDEN.
BUT IT’S THESE TWO, THE
CORONAVIRUS.
LOOK AT THAT ADVANTAGE FOR
BIDEN.
AND THEN RACE RELATIONS.
LOOK AT THAT ADVANTAGE FOR JOE
BIDEN.
THESE TWO TOPICS, THESE TWO POLL
RESULTS, THEY SEEM TO PBE DRIVIN
THINGS RIGHT NOW.
THESE TWO ISSUES SEEM TO BE THE
BIGGEST ANSWER.
>> STEVE KORNACKI, THE METRIC
THAT CARES ABOUT PROBLEMS OF
PEOPLE JUST LIKE YOU TENDS TO
TRUMP EVERY OTHER ACCESS AROUND
WHICH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE
DECIDED.
IT IS A STRONGER FORCE IN
DETERMINING THE OUTCOME.
I HAVE TO IMAGINE THAT THE
PRESIDENT’S STEWARDSHIP OF THE
CORONAVIRUS OR LACK TO STEWARD
THE CORONAVIRUS HAS HURT THOSE
NUMBERS.
WHAT DO THEY LOOK LIKE?
>> YEAH.
THIS HAS BEEN STEADY IN OUR
POLLING HERE.
A LARGE ADVANTAGE FOR JOE BIDEN,
A HIGH DISAPPROVAL FOR DONALD
TRUMP WHEN IT COMES TO HIS
HANDLING OF THE CORONAVIRUS.
AGAIN, IF YOU WENT BACK, LET’S
SAY, TO JANUARY, VERY START OF
THIS YEAR BEFORE THE CORONAVIRUS
REALLY TOOK HOLD, THIS WAS THE
ISSUE, THE ECONOMY THAT TRUMP
AND HIS CAMPAIGN WERE POINTING
TO.
THEY SAID THE ECONOMY WAS GOING
TO LIFT HIM TO RE-ELECTION.
HE STILL HAS AN ADVANTAGE ON THE
ECONOMY.
HE LED ON THE ECONOMY BACK IN
JANUARY AS WELL.
BUT THE POLLING, THE OVERALL
POLLING, BIDEN AND TRUMP, IT WAS
MUCH CLOSER IN JANUARY THAN IT
IS NOW.
I THINK IT WAS FOUR POINTS IN
JANUARY.
YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT EIGHT OR
NINE RIGHT NOW.
I THINK WHAT HAS BUILT THAT LEAD
FOR BIDEN TAKEN IT FROM FOUR TO
EIGHT OR NINE POINTS IN OUR
POLL, IT IS THE CORONAVIRUS,
TRUMP’S RESPONSE TO IT.
AND I THINK MORE RECENTLY, THE
BIGGEST SINGLE ADVANTAGE BIDEN
HAS OVER TRUMP ON ANY ISSUE IN
OUR POLL IS RACE RELATIONS.
THESE PROTESTS, THE POLICE
INCIDENT IN MINNEAPOLIS.
TRUMP’S RESPONSE, HIS HANDLING
OF IT, BIGGEST SINGLE ADVANTAGE
THAT BIDEN HAS.
>> STEVE, LET ME ASK YOU.
THINKING ABOUT PEOPLE THAT DON’T
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO POLITICS,
WHO SORT OF ONLY START TO TUNE
IN AFTER LABOR DAY OR MAYBE THEY PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONVENTIONS
PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONVENTIONS
BUT THEY’RE NOT JOUNKUNKYS FOR T
STUFF.
WHAT DO YOU SAY TO PEOPLE WHO
SAY AFTER CLINTON/TRUMP, WE
DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS ANYMORE?
TRUMP OBVIOUSLY TALKS ABOUT THAT
A LOT WHENEVER HE SEES POLL
NUMBERS THAT HE DOESN’T LIKE
ABOUT HIS OWN STANDING.
HE SAYS THE POLLS ARE ALWAYS
WRONG AND THEY ALWAYS UNDERPLAY
WHAT HIS REAL SUPPORT IS.
WHAT DO YOU TELL PEOPLE WHEN
THEY COME TO YOU WITH THAT
OBJECTION?
>> I UNDERSTAND IT BECAUSE THE
TALK IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2016
CAMPAIGN WAS THAT CLINTON HAD
SUCH AN OVERPOWERING LEAD.
BUT LET ME PUT THIS BACK ON THE
SCREEN.
NATIONAL POLLS HERE.
LOOK, IN 2016, ON HER ABSOLUTE
BEST DAY FROM THE SPRING TO
ELECTION DAY, ON HER ABSOLUTE
BEST DAY, HILLARY CLINTON COULD
GET POLLS LIKE THIS.
BUT MORE OFTEN YOU FOUND THAT
CLINTON LEAD OVER TRUMP
SHRINKING TO 5, 4, 3 POINTS.
IT IS TRUE, TRUMP WASN’T
CATCHING CLINTON IN THE POLLS
NATIONALLY.
BUT AT THE END OF THE ELECTION,
OUR FINAL NBC NEWS WALL STREET
JOURNAL POLL BEFORE ELECTION
DAY, THIS POLL HAD CLINTON’S
MARGIN OVER TRUMP AT 4 POINTS.
NOW WE HAVE IT AT 9.
WE HAVE SEEN HIGH SINGLE DIGIT
LEADS FOR MONTHS NOW.
HILLARY CLINTON ON HER BEST DAY
FOR MAYBE A COUPLE DAYS COULD
GET UP TO HIGH SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS IS A STEADIER LARGEST LEAD.
I KEEP SAYING FOLLOW THE POLLING
AVERAGE.
IF THE POLLING AVERAGE GETS DOWN
TO FIVE TO FOUR TO THREE POINTS
TO SOMEWHERE IN THAT RANGE, THEN
I THINK YOU START TALKING ABOUT
ELECTORAL COLLEGE, TRUMP WITH
THAT PATHWAY HE FOUND IN 2016.