>>> PUBLIC POLLS HAVE GIVEN
DEMOCRATS AN ARTIFICIAL BOOST.
AS ONE STRATEGIST PUT IT,
ANSWERING A POLITICAL POLL
ITSELF BECAME A KIND OF
EXPRESSION OF POLITICAL
IDENTITY IN THE DEMOCRATS WERE
THE MOST LIKELY TO RESPOND TO
POLLS.
THIS GOES THE REPUBLICAN
ARGUMENT MAKES IT LOOK LIKE
CANDIDATES AND ISSUES OF
CONCERN TO THE DEEPEST BLUE
DEMOCRATS ARE ALSO THE MOST
POPULAR.
ACCORDING TO GOP OPERATIVES,
PRIVATE POLLING PREDICTS A
BLOOD BATH FOR DEMOCRATS ON
TUESDAY AND BLOWOUT VICTORIES
FOR REPUBLICANS ACROSS THE
BOARD.
IT'S DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
POLLSTER RIGHT NOW OR FOR THAT
MATTER ANY ANONYMOUS GOP
OPERATIVE.
HOW MUCH CAN POLLS TELL US WHAT
TO EXPECT BE JOINING ME TO
DISCUSS, JIM SWIFT.
A ALSO A POLITICAL STRATEGIST
AND ELECTION ANALYST THAT WAS
AN ADVISOR TO THE LINCOLN
PROJECT.
THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING ME.
WITH SEEING SOME ACCOUNTS THE
PUBLIC POLLS LEAN DEMOCRATIC
AND ACCUSATIONS THAT GOP
POLLSTERS ARE SO-CALLED
FLOODING THE ZONE WITH NOT SO
RELIABLE SURVEYS BIASED TO
THEIR SIDE.
HOW SERIOUSLY DO YOU TAKE
PUBLIC POLLING WHEN IT COMES TO
MIDTERMS ON TUESDAY?
>> 2016 BROKE POLLING IN A WILL
THE OF WAYS.
IF YOU LOOK AT REAL CLEAR POLITICS.
IT USED TO BE A GOLD STANDARD.
FOR ME YOU TEND TO LOOK AT MORE
NEUTRAL OBSERVERS LIKE THE
ECONOMIST AND THE ECONOMIST
WHEN THEY LOOK AT THE AVERAGE
OF POLLS AND HAVE THEIR
STATISTICS HERE, THEY'RE
SUGGESTING THAT THIS COULD BE
SOMETHING WHERE DEMOCRATS COULD
HAVE 45 MEMBERS AND AS MANY AS
54.
REPUBLICANS COULD HAVE AS MANY
AS 55.
I THINK THERE ARE SO MANY
TOSSUP RACES HERE.
WE ALASKA DON'T KNOW THE DEGREE
TO WHICH KIND OF TRUMPIAN MAGA
REPUBLICANS ARE WILLING TO
LAUGH TO POLLSTERS JUST FOR THE
LAUGHS.
>> JUST TO OWN THE POLLSTERS.
IF REPUBLICANS AREN'T
RESPONDING TO PUBLIC POLLS, IF
IT THERE IS THIS NONRESPONSE
BIAS, HOW SKEWED THEN ARE THESE
POLLS TOWARDS THE DEMOCRATS?
POLLS THAT SHOW THEM ONE OR TWO
POINTS AHEAD WHEN IN REALITY
THEY MAY BE SEVERAL POINTS
BEHIND.
>> POLLSTERS HAVE A VERY STRONG
INCENTIVE TO BE ACCURATE.
MY GUESS IS WE'VE SEEN
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POLLING
AFTER TWO CYCLES.
MY CONCERN IN THIS DATA IS NOT
THAT REPUBLICANS ARE
UNDERREPRESENTED AS MUCH AS
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THESE
PARTISAN POLLS.
AS NATE SILVER JUST POINTED
OUT, THE 538 AVERAGE DOESN'T
ACCOUNT FOR PART OF THE POLLS.
IT DECREASES THEIR WEIGHT.
HE ADDED ON THE LINE DEMOCRATS
SHOULD PROBABLY DO THIS TOO.
I'M MORE INTERESTED IN HARD
DATA.
WHAT WE DO HAVE IS TWO STORIES.
POLLING DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE REPUBLICANS HAVE THE
ADVANTAGE BUT I REALLY WANT TO
CAUTION PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND IN
THIS CONNECTION.
WHAT THEY SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
IS A GENERIC BALLOT AT LEAST 6
OR 8 POINTS IN FAVOR OF
REPUBLICANS.
WITH THAT THEY WOULD BE SIZED
UP TO PERFORM THE WAY THAT THE
INSIDERS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
THEIR DATA SUGGESTS THEY MIGHT.
WE DON'T SEE THAT.
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT WE SAW IN
2010.
THE MOST COMPARABLE MIDTERM
WHEN DEMOCRATS WERE IN POWER.
OUT OF THAT CYCLE WAS THE
GENERIC BALLOT HIT OCTOBER AND
JUST EXPLODE IN FAVOR OF
REPUBLICANS.
NO BLUE IN THE REAL CLEAR
AVERAGE AT ALL.
I THINK WE'LL LOOK AT SOME
SURPRISING OUTCOMES.
I THINK WE'LL SEE THE WEIGHT OF
STRATEGY MATTER A LOT.
I THINK YOU SEE THAT IN SOME OF
THESE RACES LIKE PENNSYLVANIA
AND MICHIGAN WHICH WERE NOT
STRUGGLING IN A MIDTERM.
EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD.
I THINK WE SHOULD BE THINKING
ABOUT HOW DEMOCRATS HAVE
OVERPERFORMED EXPECTATIONS IF
ANYTHING.
>> I THINK YOUR DOGS AGREE WITH
YOUR ANALYSIS.
THEY ARE SIGNALING THEIR
SUPPORT FOR YOUR TAKE ON THE
POLLS.
JIM, IS THE GOP GAME PLAN TO
SAY HEY, WE WERE LEADING IN ALL
THOSE POLLS BEFOREHAND.
SO HOW DID WE LOSE?
IT IT WAS STOLEN.
>> IT IS OBVIOUSLY YOU SAW THIS
IN 2020.
THIS IS THEM SETTING IT UP.
I MEAN WE -- AS A JANUARY 6th
COMMITTEE HAS GIVEN US DETAILS
WE'RE FINDING THAT THE PEOPLE
ADVISING TRUMP ARE SAYING YOU
NEED TO PREEMPTIVELY DECLARE A
VICTORY.
YOU LOOK AT CANDIDATE AFTER
CANDIDATE.
ALL OF THEM ARE BEING ASKED BY
REPORTERS WILL YOU ACCEPT THE
RESULTS AND PRETTY MUCH NONE OF
THEM SAY YES.
AND I THINK UNFORTUNATELY WE
ARE GOING TO BE ON DUTY FOR A
LONG ELECTION NIGHT AND MAYBE
IN THE CASE OF SOME RACES WE'RE
GOING TO BE LOOKING AT DAYS
UNTIL WE CAN REALLY GET
SOMETHING.
EVEN IF WE DON'T GET A
CONCESSION WHICH IN RACES WE
WON'T BECAUSE THIS HAS BECOME
THE NORM NOW.
>> DAYS IN WHICH PEOPLE HAVE
TIME TO CAUSE MISCHIEF AND
SPREAD MISINFORMATION.
WE KNOW THAT RON JOHNSON AND
KARI LAKE HAVE REFUSED TO
ACCEPT THE RESULTS IN THEIR
RACES IN ARIZONA AND WISCONSIN.
RACHEL, THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION NOTORIOUSLY SHOCKED
POLLSTERS WHO LARGELY EXPECTED
A CLINTON WIN.
IT'S BEEN A HALF A DECADE SINCE
THEN.
POLLSTERS HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO
BE ACCURATE.
WHY DIDN'T THEY FIX THINGS FOR
2020?
WE'VE NOW HAD TWO IN A ROW.
>> YEAH, I THINK THAT 2020
POLLING WAS A LOT MORE RELIABLE
BUT HERE'S THE THING.
THE POLLING IN 2016 SUGGESTED
CLINTON WAS GOING TO WIN THE
POPULAR VOTE AND SHE DID.
THEY ARE NOT DESIGNED TO TELL
YOU THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
OUTCOME.
I THINK THE MOST RELEVANT
POLLING MYTH FOR OUR DISCUSSION
IS ACTUALLY THE 2020 POLLING
FOR THE HOUSE.
THAT WAS JUST LIKE IT IS NOW,
SUGGESTING A DOMINANT DAY FOR
THE DEMOCRATS.
THEY ENDED UP LOSING 14 THAT
WAS BY EVERY MODEL INCLUDING MY
OWN AND NATE SILVER'S.
I REALLY DO THINK WHEN YOU'RE
LOOKING AT POLLING IN THE HOUSE
IT'S A AN UNRELIABLE INDICATOR
AND WE SHOULD ASSUME THAT
DEMOCRATS ARE IN THE HUNT
BECAUSE OF THE AGGREGATE
ENTHUSIASM IS EQUAL AND THE
GENERIC BALLOT IS ONLY A COUPLE
POINTS ADVANTAGE FOR
REPUBLICANS.
>> ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER
ENDORSEMENT FROM YOUR
SUPPORTERS.
JIM, LAST WEEK ARIZONA
GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE KARI
LAKE BROUGHT STEVE BANNON UP ON
STAGE.
STEVE BANNON IS A CONVICTED
CRIMINAL.
FOUND GUILTY IN CONTEMPT OF
CONGRESS.
SHE DID IT AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
HOW DO REPUBLICANS STILL GET
AWAY WITH CALLING THEMSELVES
THE PARTY OF LAW AND ORDER AND
CALLING DEMOCRATS SOFT ON CRIME
WHILE CAMPAIGNING WITH LITERAL
CRIMINALS?
>> THAT'S A VERY EXCELLENT
QUESTION.
THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY
THAT I WORK FOR WHEN I WORKED
WITH SENATOR JOHN KYLE FROM
ARIZONA.
COUNTERPART BEING JOHN MCCAIN
REALLY TOOK THE -- THEY WENT TO
THE MATTRESSES AGAINST PEOPLE
LIKE KARI LAKE.
I'M NOT EVEN SURE KARI LAKE IS
CONSERVATIVE.
I THINK THAT SHE MIGHT BE
PLAYING A PART HERE.
BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE JD
HAYWORTHS AND WHAT JOHN MCCAIN
CALLED WHACKO BIRDS.
THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY
USED TO BE RESPECTABLE.
NOW I THINK THAT IN PART
BECAUSE ARIZONA HAS A LOT OF
RETIREES WHO DON'T FACE CANCEL
CULTURE AS A RESULT OF
SUPPORTING EXTREMIST
CANDIDATES.
KARI LAKE SAID THAT SHE THOUGHT
STEVE BANNON SHOULD BE COMPARED
TO GEORGE WASHINGTON.
THAT'S INSANE.
THAT'S CRAZY SAUCE.
AND THESE FOLKS EAT IT UP.
BUT IF YOU'RE A RETIREE AND YOU CAN'T LOSE YOUR JOB ANY MORE,
CAN'T LOSE YOUR JOB ANY MORE,
THERE'S JUST NO INCENTIVE TO BE
MODERATE AT ALL.
UNFORTUNATELY KATIE HOBBS HAS
NOT RUN A VERY GOOD CAMPAIGN.
I WOULD LIKE HER TO WIN, I
THINK KARI LAKE IS A DANGEROUS
EXTREMIST.
UNFORTUNATELY KATIE HOBBS IS