>>> OFF THE TOP TONIGHT, WE’RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TROPICAL STORM IAN.
THE SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING TONIGHT,
THREATENING TO HIT FLORIDA’S
PANHANDLE AS A POWERFUL
HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK.
WE HAVE LIVE TEAM COVERAGE
TONIGHT.
LOCAL 10’S JOSEPH OJO IS
STANDING BY WITH A LOOK AT THE
PREPS.
>> HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND
STORM SURGE EXPERT MICHAEL
LOWERY IS HERE WITH EVERYTHING
YOU NEED TO KNOW.
>> BUT WE BEGIN WITH CERTIFIED
METEOROLOGIST BETTY DAVIS WITH
THE NEW ADVISORY.
BETTY.
>> GOOD EVENING.
WELL, TROPICAL STORM IAN IS
GATHERING STEAM OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 65 MILES PER HOUR, PRESSURE
AT 989 MILLIBARS AS IT’S MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 13
MILES PER HOUR AND IT’S 140
MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.
HERE’S THE PROJECTED PATH OF
THAT FORECAST CONE.
CLEARLY YOU CAN SEE SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE STILL
OUTSIDE THE CONE.
BUT WE ARE ANTICIPATING IMPACTS
HERE.
AND I’LL TALK ABOUT THAT IN A
SECOND.
LET’S JUST FOLLOW WHERE IT’S
GONNA HEAD TONIGHT, FORECAST
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TOMORROW, MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST CUBA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND HEADS OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MAKES A LANDFALL
LATER THIS WEEK SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA OUT
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
I’M GONNA ZOOM IN A LITTLE
CLOSER SO WE CAN SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN RELATION TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE
TIME FRAME FOR THE CLOSEST
APPROACH.
WE GOING TO ANTICIPATE SOME
IMPACTS HERE, SOME OF THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS
OF THE RAIN BANDS, THE LOWER
KEYS BY THE WAY NOW UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SO THERE TROPICAL STORM WINDS
COULD HAPPEN BY TUESDAY.
THOUGH WE ARE NOT UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
LET’S BRING IN OUR HURRICANE
SPECIALIST MICHAEL LOWERY TO
TALK A LOT MORE.
IT’S SO INTERESTING TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF IAN, WHICH IS NOW
ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
HURRICANE.
>> YEAH, BETTY.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW HOURS
MAKE.
WHEN THEY FLEW THROUGH THIS IT
FIRST THING EARLY THIS EVENING
THEY FOUND THE PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN FROM WHAT WE’RE
ESTIMATING TO BE ABOUT 1,000
MILLIBARS DOWN TO 990 MILLIBARS.
SO THE PRESSURE IS FALLING
INDICATING THAT THE STORM IS
GATHERING TEAM.
-- STEAM.
LOOK AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE THIS EVENING.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE CONVECTION
THAT WASN’T THERE EARLIER IS
REALLY BLOSSOMING AROUND WHERE
THE CENTER OF THIS ONE IS.
IT’S ORGANIZING AND QUICKLY
STRENGTHING HERE UNTIL THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
IN TERMS OF THE THREAT HERE, 2
TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE.
THAT’S A NEW NUMBER THAT CAME
OUT TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LOWER KEYS.
UP TO 7 FEET OF STORM SURGE, UP
TO NAPLES AREA, JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NAPLES.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG WATER
IMPACT POTENTIALLY HERE FOR
PARTS EVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
9 TO 14 FEET OF STORM SURGE
HOAR.
WE CAN’T FORGET WHAT’S HAPPENING
HERE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CUBA.
IN TERMS OF WHAT THE MODELS ARE
DOING TONIGHT, THEY’RE KIND OF
COMING TO A BETTER AGREEMENT, WE
HAVE THIS DIP IN THE JETSTREAM
HERE.
THAT’S GONNA PICK THIS UP.
IT’S ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE
THIS TO THE NORTH.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND, TO THE TAMPAISH AREA OR
EVEN THAT THE -- TO THE NORTH OF
THAT.
THE GFS MODEL HAS SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY BEEN TRENDING BACK TO
THE EAST TODAY.
THAT HAS BEEN THE WESTERN MODEL,
THE AMERICAN MODEL.
THE MODELS NOW SHOWING REALLY
THE SORT OF BIG IMPACT AREA HERE
BY LATER IN THE WEEK TO BE THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.
THAT’S GONNA BE A TREMENDOUS,
TREMENDOUS IMPACT IN TERMS OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE
FLYING THAT COASTAL FLOODING.
WE DON’T HAVE ANY NUMBERS YET
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER BUT
ONCE THEY PUT OUT THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA WE’RE GONNA GET THOSE
NUMBERS AND BE PAYING VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE FOLKS OVER
THERE.
FOR US, AT LEAST HERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA, THE MAIN EVENTS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE KEYS.
2 TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THOSE BANDS