JACK: EVERY YEAR FOR 55 YEARS,
BARRON.
TOP INVESTORS AND STRATEGIST TO
FIND OUT WHERE THEY ARE PUTTING
THEIR MONEY.
JOINING ME, LONG TIME MEMBER OF
CRISTIANO AMON AND, RETIRED
GOLDMAN SACHS PARTNER, ABBY
JOSEPH COHEN.
YOU HAVEN’T BEEN PART OF THE
ROUND TABLE FOR 55 YEARS BUT
YOU GOT A LONG RUN WITH US.
>> A LONG, MULTI-DECADE RUN.
I’M DELIGHTED TO BE PART OF IT.
JACK: THIS REINFORCED YOUR
OPTIMISM ABOUT 2023.
CORE PC INFLATION AT 3% BY THE
END OF THE YEAR AND YOU THINK
WE CAN AVOID RECESSION, SOUNDS
LIKE THE SOFT LANDING.
>> SOFT LANDING IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO BUT ONE COULD
NEVER RULE OUT UGLIER
ALTERNATIVES.
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A STRONG
LABOR MARKET AND THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL WORK AS A
GOOD OFFSET TO WHAT THE FED
DECIDES TO DO.
THIS IS THE FED THAT IS NOW
FACING INFLATION DATA, STILL
HIGHER THAN THEY WOULD LIKE
ABOUT IT IS COMING DOWN AND
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IS
HELPFUL.
KEEP IN MIND IT IS NOT ONLY THE
FED WE ARE SEEING A DECLINE IN
INFLATION AS WELL, BECAUSE
THOSE SUPPLY-CHAIN PROBLEMS
HAVE EASED UP AND THERE HAS
BEEN A BIG DECLINE IN GLOBAL
ENERGY PRICES.
JACK: SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD BACKDROP FOR STOCKS, AND YOU
BACKDROP FOR STOCKS, AND YOU
MAKE THAT CASE.
>> WE ARE STARTING TO THOUSAND
23 WITH BETTER VALUATION THAN
WE DID A YEAR AGO.
THAT IS OF SAYING THE PRICES
FELL DRAMATICALLY BIG CLEARLY
IF THERE ARE SOME VERY
INTERESTING OPPORTUNITIES IN
VARIOUS PARTS OF FOR MARKET.
ONE COULD ARGUE THE FIXED
INCOME MARKETS ARE MORE
ATTRACTIVE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
IN SEVERAL YEARS.
AL: ON THE FIXED INCOME, HOW
WOULD YOU THINK ABOUT
ALLOCATING BASED ON THE OUTLOOK
FOR SHORT-TERM RATES.
WHERE ARE THE BETTER VALUES?
>> IF YOU HAD ASKED ME THIS
QUESTION IN A POLITICAL VACUUM,
LOOKING AT THE ARITHMETIC, I
WOULD SAY THERE WERE GOOD
OPPORTUNITIES IN SHORT TO
INTERMEDIATE SIDE AND WE HAVE
SEEN A CORRECTION, PRICES
MOVING OF OUR RIGHT DIRECTION,
IN TERMS OF SOME THINGS THAT
ARE HIGHER RISK.
A YEAR AGO, 6 MONTHS AGO
INVESTORS WEREN’T ASKING FOR
EXTRA YIELD FOR EXTENDING THE
YIELD CURVE OR THIS CURVE.
NOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES, IF YOU ASK ME
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL
RISK IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS
COMING MAINLY FROM DOMESTIC,
POLITICAL POLARIZATION.
I AM VERY CONCERNED WHEN SO
MANY IN THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF
CONGRESS ARE SAYING THEY ARE
WILLING TO SEE THE U.S.
TREASURY GO INTO DEFAULT.
CARLETON: I AM CURIOUS IF YOU
COULD SPEAK ABOUT OTHER
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS LIKE CHINA
OPENING UP OR POTENTIAL FOR
CHINA COULD INVADE TAIWAN, OR
THE ONGOING WAR WITH RUSSIA AND
UKRAINE.
>> THOSE ARE GREAT THINGS TO
THINK ABOUT.
WITH REGARD TO THE REOPENING OF
CHINA, THERE ARE A COUPLE
DIFFERENT WAYS.
WE ARE SEEING SIGNIFICANT
DISRUPTION IN CHINA BECAUSE SO
MANY PEOPLE ARE BECOMING ILL.
THERE IS BELIEF AMONG GLOBAL
HEALTH EXPERTS THAT THE DEATH
TOLL IN CHINA IS DRAMATICALLY
HIGHER AND THE GOVERNMENT IS
INDICATING, IN ADDITION, SOME
FACTORIES AND CITIES WHERE
THERE SEEMS TO BE A SHORTAGE OF
AVAILABLE WORKERS PRIMARILY
BECAUSE OF ILLNESS.
ULTIMATELY, THE ASSUMPTION ON
THE PART OF MANY INVESTORS IS
THE REOPENING OF CHINA WILL
BENEFIT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY AS SUPPLY CHAINS WORK
THROUGH THEIR SNAFUS.
ONE IMPORTANT THING YOU TOUCHED
UPON IS WHETHER CHINA IS
FEELING A LITTLE BIT EMBOLDENED
IN TERMS OF ITS DEALINGS WITH
TAIWAN, BECAUSE OF WHAT
HAPPENED WITH RUSSIA AND
UKRAINE.
WE HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS AS A GLOBAL ECONOMY.
IF WE ADD UP THE SEMICONDUCTOR
PRODUCTION THAT COMES OUT OF
TAIWAN WHICH IS THE WORLD’S
LARGEST, WITH CHINESE
SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION, THE
WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST WE ARE
TALKING 45% OF GLOBAL
PRODUCTION, SOMETHING THAT
WOULD DISRUPT THAT WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR EVERYONE, BUT
THE EYE IS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
THE MILITARY PERSPECTIVE IN
THAT PART OF THE WORLD.