New CNN polling
out this morning with a fresh
look at what voters are thinking
and what
how they are
feeling in two battleground states,
Michigan and Pennsylvania.
They were key to President
Biden's win in 2020.
And the new data shows
his campaign may have work to do
in order to win them this time around.
CNN's Harry Enten is here with his
look at the new polling
What do you see in these numbers first?
What do I see?
What do I see in these numbers?
All right.
First case
this Michigan numbers
or these are not good
for the incoming president.
United States Donald Trump at 50%
Joe Biden at 42%.
I looked back at the 2020 polling
and at no point during
the campaign
was there a single poll them at CNN
standards for publication
in which Donald Trump led Joe Biden.
There were zero here we already have one.
And I looked at the average of polls
I looked at our previous CNN poll
and they all show the same thing
which is that Donald
Trump is ahead of Joe
Biden in the Wolverine State.
You go over to Michigan, look,
no clear leader.
That's the key thing going on.
These two gentlemen are tied.
But again,
this is a state that Joe Biden
won last time around by a little bit
more than a percentage point.
So this is not the type of polling
that Joe Biden wants to see here,
but in clearly a much better shape
in Pennsylvania than in Michigan.
I was going to say
the Biden campaign
can take some comfort in here
and in the numbers and where the support
and where the support maintains.
But this is Michigan
seems to be where they are.
They are looking probably looking closer
and where there's work to do.
What's the biggest change in Michigan
from last election?
Yeah,
you know,
this is something I have been harping on
and harping on and harping on.
So let's break this down. By race, right?
Let's look at voters of color.
Look at white voters.
And what we see here is back in 20, 20.
According to the exit poll,
Joe Biden won voters of color
Michigan by 62 points.
Look at that advantage. Today.
It has been sliced by a third
only 21 points.
That's Joe Biden's lead over
Donald Trump among voters of color,
among white voters.
Donald Trump
has gained a little bit of steam
as well as 11 points in 2020.
His margin over Joe
Biden right now is 16 points.
But this
decline in support
for Joe Biden among voters of color
in Michigan is something
we've been seeing in state
after state
and nationally as well
where he's got some big problems.
This is a historic low amount of support
for a Democratic presidential candidate.
Among voters of color,
and it seems to be happening
across the board.
Kate,
you're also taking note
in Michigan specifically,
I think, of the view
from voters on Trump's
efforts to overturn the election.
It's exactly right. So, you know,
Joe Biden has his
flaws in the voter's mind.
Donald Trump has his flaws.
Look, look,
let's look at
what could be a flaw for Donald Trump.
If true, the charges against Trump
regarding efforts
to overturn
the 2020 election, disqualify him
from the presidency,
cast doubts on his fitness for the job
or aren't relevant to his fitness
for the job.
Here Only 44%.
Only 44% of registered voters
say they disqualify him
for the presidency if they are true.
This isn't asking
whether or not they're true.
We're saying if they are true,
do they disqualify
disqualify Donald Trump
from the presidency?
And only 44% of registered voters
say they in fact do
this to me
is a big problem for Joe Biden.
Because the fact is,
even if Trump gets a conviction,
it's not clear to me
that voters will abandon him.
And it's nearly equal to this.
42% who say
they aren't relevant to his fitness
for the trip.
Isn't that squishy?
Because that could also mean I'm not.
I don't think he's
I don't think he's fit for the job
no matter what
or I think he's fit for the job.
Yeah.
I mean,
I will say I dug into the crosstabs
I like the Democrats.
It's the Republicans who are saying this.
It's not the Democrats.
Democrats are overwhelmingly saying this.
It's a clever question.
But no, this does pretty much
get at the idea
that there are a lot of voters out there
who are essentially saying, you know,
even if these charges are true,
they don't disqualify him.
Please note,
Harry said that was a clever question.
What about one of Biden's
biggest perceived
weaknesses that voters across
the board are concerned about,
which is his age?
Yes.
Thinking about what you want
to President Biden, sharpness
and stamina are exactly what you want.
This is where I think
Joe Biden wants voters to be.
It's only 7% close enough.
24%.
How about not what you want in Michigan?
69%.
69%. Not what you want.
This, to me, is a big problem
for Joe Biden.
Because the fact is,
while a majority of voters are saying
even if the charges
against Trump are true in Michigan,
they don't disqualify him here.
The majority of voters in Michigan
are saying
that Joe Biden's
sharpness and stamina
are not what you want.
Okay, so there are months to go.
Yes.
Things can
and likely will shift
and change more than once yes.
Polls are a snapshot in time.
Yes.
What does this snapshot in time
say about the electorate?
Yeah, I've been waiting
to press that button.
So you could get all of those.
Like,
it's just they're just waiting for it,
allowing it to matter.
Have you had to do matter?
Absolutely.
Based on recent polling and past results.
Donald Trump
leading in the Electoral College
right at this particular point.
CNN's David Chalian has much more for us.
David,
a smart man named David Chalian
flagged this morning that roughly
a quarter of voters
in both of these states
say that they are not locked in
to their vote quite yet.
Why is that so important?
Makes sense, right?
Because we are still seven
plus months away from the election.
So it's important because, A,
as we know with polls,
this is a snapshot in time.
But when voters
tell you,
yeah, I can change my mind,
it kind of proves the point
that there is work to be done here
for both the Trump
and the Biden campaigns
with all these months
ahead of them to seal the deal.
But I want to go inside a little bit
some of the demographic slices underneath
those horserace numbers
that you just provided.
Look, here in Pennsylvania,
if you look among independents,
you see that
Biden's at 46%, Trump at 36%.
He's plus ten among independents
back in 2020.
According to the exit polls,
Biden was plus eight in Pennsylvania
among these so within range women
he's plus eight with women back in 2020
and they exit polls
Biden was plus 11 in Pennsylvania
among women again within range.
So as you noted pieces of the Biden
coalition here
seem to be coming back to him
in Pennsylvania.
That is a different story
when you look at Michigan
Michigan again
look at these same demographics places
Biden is -10 to trump among independents.
Well back in the 2020
exits Biden won independents in Michigan
by six
women it's roughly even here
given the margin of error
I would call that a three point split 48,
45, roughly
even split among women
between Trump and Biden.
Biden won women in Pennsylvania
by 14 percentage points
in 2020 in the exit.
So there is clearly pieces
of the Biden coalition in Michigan
that are not yet
sort of returning to the norm
of where they were in 2020
and what about the continuing question
about a third party David.
Kate I find this fascinating look here
at the just horse races again
among registered voters
we're not in the season
of looking at likely voters just yet
but you see here in Pennsylvania
Trump gets 40% to Biden's 38%
to RFK junior 16% to call on those 4%.
The first thing I want to just note here
because I think this is the biggest
factor of the third party support
at this moment
it lowers Trump's win no right.
He's winning that race basically,
if you will with no clear leader
but he's numerically ahead
with 40% of the vote
that's all he needs to be
getting the most support there.
Same thing in Michigan.
If you look at the third party
factor there, you see that
Donald Trump's number two come out on top
is win number here
also at 40%
it's just dramatically lower for Trump
when to get over the hurdle
of winning the state
with the third party there.
Now when we look inside
we see that those Kennedy voters
they're sort of pulling he's
pulling from Republicans
and Democrats near equally.
So it's not entirely clear
in terms of the support
where it's totally pulling from in terms
of advantage for Biden or Trump
but it is clear that it lowers
the threshold needed to win a state.
How is
President Biden's approval rating,
which we track all the time, of course,
how is his approval
rating playing into any of this or not?
It's such a good question.
We do track it all the time
and it has been sort
of a reliable indicator
for decades in politics,
especially for incumbents.
Right, who are running for reelection.
Look at
Joe Biden's approval
rating in Pennsylvania.
First you see he's at 40% approval.
60% disapproval.
That's basically where he's
been sort of nationally
as well on average.
But again, in Michigan,
we see something different.
He's at 35% approval in Michigan.
64% disapproval.
It is a tougher electorate
in Michigan for him now, and specifically
in basically
all the polling
that we've seen after October 7th
and the Israel-Hamas issue,
how it's particularly playing there.
But Kate,
the question
is, is Biden the factor in this race,
according to these polls
in these two battleground states?
Trump is the factor.
Trump is the factor for both Biden voters
and Trump voters.
Look, in
Pennsylvania, you see Biden
voters
overwhelmingly say
they're voting against his opponent.
61% say that of Biden supporters,
not for Joe Biden.
It's the complete reverse
for Donald Trump.
We see a similar thing in Michigan.
Donald Trump,
whether you're a Biden supporter
or a Trump
supporter,
is the driving force in this election.
And that may be good news
for Joe Biden, who, of course,
who is trying to keep Donald Trump
front and center in America's minds.
That's fast dating.
David is seeing those numbers up there
on the grid together.
It's great to see you, David.
Thank you so much.
You were you were just counting.
This is that's really cool.
Are you seeing David
in every job
laying that out in the idea
that Donald Trump is the central factor?
It may be with both campaigns?
That's what I'm thinking, right?
Because that's what that's what
Biden saying
don't compare me to the almighty.
Compare it to the alternative.
That's
basically the nutshell,
by the way, seasons of likely voters.
David Chalian, favorite song from Right
Little Old Fat