With between 28 and 29 games played of the season, the top of the table looks like this,
with Chelsea in a seemingly unassailable lead.
In the last ten seasons of the Premier League, the team who sits top after between 27 and
29 games played, the point of the season we’re at now, wins the league 60% of the time.
The following teams were all top with between nine and 11 games to go and held on to be crowned Champions.
If 60% do, then 40% don’t, and these changes occurred in 2013/14, 2011/12, 2009/10, and
2007/08: Manchester City overtook Chelsea in 2013/14
Manchester City overtook Manchester United in 2011/12
Chelsea overtook Manchester United in 2009/10 Manchester United overtook Arsenal in 2007/08
In each of these changes, the team who were second with between 27-29 games played
became Champions, apart from Manchester City in 2013/14, who had two games in hand
and came from fourth to seize the title.
In both 2013/14 and 2007/08, the team who were
leading at the 27-29 game mark, Chelsea and Arsenal respectively, ended up finishing third.
In both 2014/15 and 2006/07 the top four after 27-29 fixtures remained the same.
In fact, in only two years, 2012/13 and 2008/09, did a team in the top four after 27-29
fixtures drop out, Spurs and Aston Villa respectively.
Neither year saw a change in first place, though, and in both instances, the team coming
into the top four was Arsenal, which might offer a crumb of comfort to fans of that club this season.
If we look at Chelsea’s current points per game, and that of the rest of the top four,
we can see that Chelsea are by some margin ahead of the chasing pack.
Indeed, Chelsea have the joint second best points per game record at this stage of any
side in the last eleven seasons of the Premier
League and are one of only five sides to have accrued over 2.4 points per game with around ten games of the season left.
If we take the top five excluding Chelsea, then four of those five teams won the title:
The side that didn’t was United in 2011/12, who were pipped by a late surging City, whose
points per game by the end of the season had drawn level with United’s as the other
Manchester side fell off the pace.
These five teams also have the highest finishing points per game totals come the end of the
season, with United’s 2.37 the best points per game of any side in the last ten full
seasons of the Premier League.
​The two things to note are that Chelsea’s
current points per game is second only in the last
ten seasons to the extraordinary efforts of the 2012/13 Manchester United vintage, and
that even that vintage dropped as the season came to its climax.
In fact, of the six sides who were top after 27 to 29 games, only two increased
their points per game taken between then and the end of the season, Leicester
City, by 0.1 per game, or effectively getting a draw
instead of a loss in that run in, and Manchester United in 2010/11, by a tiny margin.
Indeed, even when teams who overtook the league leaders with ten or so games to go are
factored in, only four sides changed their points per game positively.
Of those, two held on to top spot and two overtook the side above
them to win the title, and only Leicester improved by a margin that translated to an
extra point on the board.
If Chelsea do maintain their efforts, they will record the highest points per game of
a Champion in the last ten years, but trends
suggest this level won’t be sustained all the way to the end of the season.
The United side of 2012/13, the only side in the last ten seasons to
exceed Chelsea’s current points per game at the same point of the season, decreased
by almost 0.2 points per game, or dropped two
points over the ten remaining games that their previous total would have suggested they’d win.
The title is Chelsea’s, but they can match Leicester in accelerating towards it?
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