CONNELL: NOBODY ELSE SEEMS TO
EITHER.
IF ANYBODY KNOWS HOW YOU SOLVE
THE TRICKY CAN ISSUE, THE BORDER
BETWEEN REPUBLIC OF IRELAND AND
NORTHERN IRELAND WHAT OTHER
OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO THERESA
MAY?
MELISSA AND I WONDER WILL THERE
BE ANOTHER REFERENDUM?
IS THAT ANOTHER THING THAT MIGHT
HAPPEN.
MIGHT RESULTS BE DIFFERENT THAT
TIME AROUND?
>> WELL I THINK THERE IS NO WAY
THAT THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT
WILL AGREE TO ANOTHER
REFERENDUM.
NOR SHOULD THERE BE ANOTHER
REFERENDUM.
17.4 BRITONS VOTED IN JUNE 2016
TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION.
THE BRITAIN HAS TO RESPECT THE
WILL OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE.
THERE IS NO NEED FOR A SECOND
REFERENDUM.
BRITAIN HAD ITS VOTE.
BRITISH PEOPLE VOTED ON MATTER.
AS LONG AS THERE IS CONSERVATIVE
GOVERNMENT YOU WILL NOT HAVE A
SECOND REFERENDUM.
THE ALTERNATIVES TO RENEGOTIATE
THE EU THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT
ALL.
THE OTHER ALTERNATIVE GO DOWN
THE NO-DEAL ROUTE.
WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY INEVITABLE
HERE.
AND THERE IS NO PROSPECT I THINK
OF THE THE EU YOU MAKING ANY
CONCESSIONS ON THE NORTHERN
IRELAND BACK DO ISSUE.
DON'T FORGET THE EU NEGOTIATED
THIS WITHDRAWAL DEAL WITH THE
UNITED KINGDOM, IN
MEAN-SPIRITED, VERY NASTY
FASHION IN ORDER TO ISSUE A
WARNING TO OTHER EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES OF THE CONSEQUENCES
FOR LEAVING THE EU SORT OF
PUNISHMENT BEATING EU ISSUED.
THEY ARE NO, NO MOOD TO MAKE ANY
CONCESSIONS HERE.
THE FACT IS THAT WITH THE
NORTHERN IRELAND BACK DO?
PLACE THEY ARE TIED TO THE
CUSTOMS UNION, THAT IS HEART OF
FAILURE OF THERESA MAY'S DEAL.
THERE IS NO WAY I THINK SHE WILL
GET THE EU TO BACK DOWN OVER
THIS.
>> AMBASSADOR.
IF THERE IS A HARD EXIT AS WAS
SUGGESTED, IF THIS DEAL DOESN'T
GO THROUGH, IS THAT BETTER OR
WORSE FOR THE EU?
I UNDERSTAND HOW YOU FEEL IT
WOULD WORK OUT FOR THE UK.
IF THE EU FORCE THIS IS
SCENARIO, WHERE THERE ISN'T A
DEAL THAT CAN PASS IN THE UK,
ARE THINK BETTER OR WORSE OFF
FOR HAVING YOU KNOW, FORCED THIS
SITUATION FORWARD?
>> OF COURSE THE EU DOESN'T WANT
A HARD NO DEAL "BREXIT."
IT WOULD BE BAD FOR EUROPE.
BAD FOR UNCERTAINTY.
BAD FOR INVESTMENTS.
THEY'RE NOT WISHING FOR THAT.
THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST IN THEIR
NEGOTIATION.
I DISAGREE ENTIRELY.
ALL THE E U2 7 HAVE DOMESTIC
POLITICS AS WELL.
THE UK WHILE IT WAS A MEMBER
TRIED TO HAVE MANY BENEFITS OF
NON-MEMBERSHIP.
NOW IT WANTS TO BE A NON-MEMBER
WITH ALL THE BENEFITS OF
MEMBERSHIP.
YOU CAN'T HAVE IT.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.
SO THAT REALLY WHERE WE ARE
TODAY IS IN LARGE PART THE
LOGICAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE
DECISIONS AND RED LINES THAT
WERE DRAWN BY THIS PRIME
MINISTER ALONG TIME AGO.
SOME OF THE IDEALOGICAL RHETORIC
WERE JUST DETACHED FROM REALTY.
EU CANNOT GIVE BETTER DEAL TO
EXITING MEMBER OR THE CONTINUING
27.
MELISSA: JOHN, REAL QUICK, CAN
YOU RESPOND TO THAT?
A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY THAT IS WHY
AN EU DIDN'T MAKE SENSE IN THE
FIRST PLACE.
THE AMBASSADOR MENTIONED THAT
EVERYBODY HAS THEIR DOMESTIC
POLITICS THEY'RE TRYING TO FOCUS
ON.
THAT IS KIND OF THE POINT.
THE COUNTRIES POLITICS AND NEEDS
DON'T ALIGN WITH ALL OF EUROPE?
>> SOVEREIGNTY IS A BIG ISSUE
HERE.
DON'T FORGET MATTERS OF
TAXATION, LOW RATE OF TAXATION
IN IRELAND, ONE OF THE EU
COUNTRIES.
HIGHER RATES OF CORPORATE INCOME
TAXES ELSEWHERE.
THOSE DIFFERENCES CAN CAUSE
STRAINS AN STRESSES QUESTION THE
LONGEVITY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
AND WARN US THAT IT DOESN'T
SOLVE ALL OF THE PROBLEMS, ALL
THE DIFFERENCES THAT THE MEMBER
COUNTRIES HAVE, SPEAKING OF
WHICH.
HEATHER, WEIGH IN ON THIS, THIS
IS NOT THE ONLY STORY FROM THIS
REGION IN THE NEWS RIGHT NOW,
MORE OR LESS OVER THE LAST
HOWEVER MANY MONTHS.
WE'RE DEALING WITH THE PROTESTS
IN FRANCE.
WE'RE DEALING WITH SLOWING
ECONOMIES IN PLACES LIKE
GERMANY, THE BUDGET ISSUES AND
ITALY, ON AND ON IT GOES WHAT
WE'RE SEEING IN THE UK.
WHEN YOU MAKE RISK RELATED
DECISIONS WHERE MONEY SHOULD BE
FLOWING HOW DO YOU LOOK AT
EUROPE?
HOW MUCH MONEY SHOULD BE
FLOWING?
>> THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE A
GREAT AREA TO INVEST IN NOW,
YOU'RE RIGHT, CONNELL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE
GLOBE, MORE IN THE EU AND U.S.,
SPEAKS TO HOW GLOBALIZED AND
INTERCONNECTED WE ARE NOW.
THEY WERE RALLYING ON CHINESE
NEGOTIATIONS AND TRADE.
I THINK MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER
TOMORROW BECAUSE WE DO HAVE
CERTAINTY FROM THIS NO
CONFIDENCE VOTE.
WHETHER YOU AGREE WITH IT OR
BACK IT OR NOT, WHETHER "BREXIT"
WILL PASS OR NOT.
AT LEAST WE GOT PAST A SHORT
TERM EVENT.
IT GOES TO PROVE THAT WE'RE SO
GLOBALLY INTERCONNECTED.
IT DOES MATTER.
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE EU DOES
MATTER HERE AT HOME IN THE U.S.
AND FOR OUR MARKETS.
MELISSA: YEAH.
IS ASHLEY STILL WITH US?
>> I THINK SO.
MELISSA: OKAY.
ASHLEY, DO YOU REALLY FEEL LIKE
ITS NORTHERN IRELAND SITUATION?
IS THAT REALLY THE BIGGEST THING
THAT PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT?
OR WHAT IS THE MAIN SORT OF
STICKING POINT OR TALKING POINT
THAT YOU'RE HEARING WHEN YOU
TALK TO PEOPLE OUT ON THE
STREET?
I KNOW YOU LIKE TO GO INTO THE
PUB TO TALK TO THE LOCALS.
ASHLEY: WHERE I DO MY BEST WORK,
LET'S BE HONEST.
I THINK THAT IS THE KEY ISSUE
CERTAINLY FOR THE LAWMAKERS,
THIS CONCERN.
I THINK BORIS JOHNSON DESCRIBED
IT AS A LOBSTER POT.
IT LURES YOU IN.
ONCE YOU'RE IN, YOU'RE TRAPPED
AND YOU CAN'T GET OUT WITH
REGARD TO THE BACKSTOP OF
NORTHERN IRELAND BEING FOREVER
UNDER EU RULES IN THAT CUSTOMS
SITUATION.
THERE ARE OTHERS WHO SAY THERE
ARE OTHER ASPECTS OF MRS. MAY'S
WITHDRAWAL, AGREEMENT, THAT
STILL GIVES A LITTLE TOO MUCH
INFLUENCE FROM THE EU OVER
COURTS, LAWS, OVER FREE
MOVEMENT, OVER TRADE ISSUES,
ALTHOUGH MRS. MAY, SAYS THAT IS
NOT TRUE.
ONCE THE TRANSITION PERIOD IS
OVER AT THE END OF 2020, BRITAIN
WILL BE LARGELY CLEAR OF THE EU
AND FREE TO DO WHATEVER IT WANTS
TO DO.
THERE IS STILL THE SENSE THAT
THE EU WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INFLUENCE THAN PEOPLE WOULD
LIKE.
I MEAN, YOU KNOW, ALL DAY WE
HAVE PROTESTERS SAYING LEAVE
MEANS LEAVE.
THEY WANT OUT.
THEY WERE QUITE HAPPY TO HAVE
THE HARD "BREXIT" BUT IT IS JUST
NOT AN EASY THING TO DO.
THE AMBASSADOR BROUGHT UP A VERY
IMPORTANT POINT THAT AN
AMENDMENT WAS AGREED UPON IN
PARLIAMENT LAST WEEK, THAT WILL
ALLOW THE, HOW THE PARLIAMENTARY
COMMITTEES TO STOP A HARD
"BREXIT."
THEY WOULD BE TABLE TO TAKE
CONTROL.
NOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN.
BY THE WAY THE BOOKMAKERS, WHEN
THEY START TAKING BETS ON WHAT
WILL HAPPEN, THE OUTCOME OF
"BREXIT," THE FAVORITE IS A
SECOND REFERENDUM NEXT YEAR.
LONGEST ODDS ARE FOR AN
AGREEMENT TO BE REACHED I THINK
IS REALLY INTERESTING.
CONNELL: DO THEY HAVE ODDS
WHETHER IT WOULD PASS, THE
SECOND REFERENDUM?
>> LONGEST ODDS, 10 TO ONE IT
WILL PASS.
IT'S A 11 TO 8 THAT IT WILL BE A
SECOND REFERENDUM WHICH
ACCORDING TO THE BOOKMAKERS, THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
CONNELL: GOT IT, PEOPLE WE WATCH
ESPECIALLY OVER.
THERE THE BOOKMAKERS.
THANK YOU TO EVERYONE.
ASHLEY, LET YOU GET BACK TO YOUR