>> With fewer than 100 hours
remaining before the first
midterm election sites close on
Tuesday evening, we make one
final pre-election day turn to
the analysis of brooks and
Capehart.
New York Times columnist David
brooks and Jonathan Capehart,
associate editor for the
Washington post.
100 hours, we have done the
math.
>> I'm not sleeping, I don't
want to miss a single second.
>> We will all be ready.
We looked it up, well over $1
billion that has been spent in
ads, mostly television ads.
Not to mention what the
candidates themselves are
saying.
What have we learned in all of
this?
>> I'm not sure ad and learn go
together.
First, they are doing different
subjects.
Primarily, Democrats are
spending a lot on abortion.
Republicans are spending a lot
on the border, inflation.
The one subject they are
spending the same is crime.
They are spending a lot on
crime.
Republicans are doing a soft on
crime things, and Democrats are
hugging any cop they can find.
Any candidate appears with
endorsement by police officer
that says they endorse the
police.
They are doing their own issue,
but primarily in different
universes.
This is my annual peeve, ad
spending really matters when
your candidate is unknown.
Once you have spent $5 million,
$10 million, arrest is making
the rubble bounce.
There is little evidence it
makes any big difference once
the candidate is well known.
Whoever wants to give money
to well-funded campaigns, send
it to a homeless guy.
>> What are you learning from
all of this?
>> The other thing that -- it
buys you name recognition, but
can turn people off.
Just being inundated, bombarded
by all of the campaign ads.
I want to talk about the other
stuff we are learning, which is
all of this dark money and these
other third-party organizations
that are also flooding the
airwave with ads.
The human rights campaign did a
report where Stephen Miller, the
former Donald Trump aid, has a
group called America first
legal.
They are running ads in 25
states targeting transgender
children.
They are doing it specifically
on black and spanish-language
radio in key states around the
country and other organizations,
citizens for sanity by other
former trump administration
people.
$20 million on TV ads in key
races around the country.
What we are learning in these ad
wars is not only are the
candidates arguing their
positions on crime or the
economy, or threats to
democracy, you have all of these
other organizations and folks
trying to game the system in
making people afraid of their
fellow Americans.
I think it is part of the
corrosion of our political
discourse.
>> There is definitely a fear
factor this year.
Both sides seem to think it
works.
>> Somehow we have a system
where -- a candidate runs an ad,
you can hold them accountable.
With these things, nobody to
hold accountable.
There has been a culture of
apocalyptic -- it started with
American carnage.
If you live in the media world
and infinite world, you can
believe this country is
dissolving at the seams.
We have our problems, but I was
in central Pennsylvania this
week, there are still happy
people going to diners.
Not everybody is getting mugged
every second.
I think this apocalyptic mood is
used by extremists to gin up
support for the emotional mood
they want you to have.
You are about to disagree --
>> I hear what you are saying,
but there's a reason why some
people -- I'm thinking about
people center and centerleft,
who look at what is happening in
terms of the supreme court
taking away a woman's right to
choose.
Supreme court justice Clarence
Thomas saying we should go after
same-sex marriage and privacy
and access to contraception.
There is a reason people feel
apocalyptic and like things are
running off of the rails,
because they are personally at
risk.
They see that this election is
probably their one of two shots
to stop what feels like a slide
into an America -- not that they
don't want to live in, but that
they don't recognize.
And is it the America that has
been promised to us?
>> We have been talking about
the paid ads, but we have
candidates on the stump,
including president Biden.
He was in Florida this week.
I want to show everybody a
little bit of what the argument
was he was making, and some of
what governor Desantis had to
say about his visit.
>> When people ask me my
reaction to having Joe Biden in
the state of Florida -- are you
telling me he's coming down here
and reminding floridians that
the Democrats in this state vote
with him 100% of the time?
Spend the rest of the campaign
in Florida, we will pay for you.
>> Five days and one of the most
important elections in our
lifetime.
I think democracy is at risk
right now.
There is too much political
violence.
There is too much intimidation.
There are more than 300 election
deniers on the Republican
tickets this year for state,
federal, and local government.
>> Speaking of your point, about
the choice people are making and
what people want to point at,
here's a short clip of the new
York governor who is facing a
closer challenge than anybody
expected from the Republican.
>> What happened in 2022 for som
E, it will be a reminder that
the rights that were so long
hard fought for could be
stripped away by a supreme court
appointed by a president who
never should have been there.
Complacency takes hold, and
people feel like I don't need to
vote because somebody else will
do it, it doesn't matter.
>> What are the choices people
are making this year.
Whether they fill in the R or
the D on the ballot?
>> I'm struck by how much
demographics is driving the
election.
There are long trends that are
shaping the race.
The first is people without
college degrees are going more
Republican, people with college
degrees are going more
democratic.
So we see this vast bifurcation
of education.
Immigrants have tried hard to
win back working-class voters,
but it is not happening.
The gap is getting wider.
The second thing, an NPR poll,
hispanic support for Democrats
is eroding, as well.
It is the demographic forces not
only in this election, but the
last several elections making it
possible for Republicans to draw
even.
>> How do you see the choice?
How much does it matter what
people are thinking?
>> The choice does matter.
It is great to see the clips.
Particularly, governor Desantis
in Florida making a reasonable
political argument, president
Biden, come down, you are not
popular here.
It is a base call.
He wants president Biden there,
because it reminds Republicans,
and maybe will get them to vote.
But the president being in
Florida and talking about the
election deniers on the ballot
and the choices voters will have
to make not just in Florida, but
around the country about what
kind of country they want to
have, that is also a base move.
The president is trying to get
out the democratic party
faithful to the polls if they
have not already early voted,
get them out on Tuesday.
Governor Hogle is doing the same
thing.
The idea that she is in a tight
race for governor in a state
where Democrats outnumber
Republicans 2-1 statewide, 7-1
in New York City, should be
alarming.
>> We have been talking about
this for weeks, maybe longer.
Republicans making this argument
Democrats have messed up the
economy, crime is worse, the
point you were making.
Why from your perspective
haven't Democrats been able to
make a stronger argument to
counter that?
>> It has been a mystery.
We are lured into a false sense
of security that abortion would
carry them across the finish
line.
For a lot of people, it is.
For the people who are more
independent where abortion is
not a number one issue, it
hasn't.
We see people focused on crime,
immigration, inflation.
Republicans have done well.
Immigration is a huge void for
the democratic party.
They don't have a clean story to
tell, they don't have a policy
that makes people feel secure.
I was picking up on this last
year.
Go to Texas and talk to
Democrats, especially south
Texas, they were just saying we
are being overrun, we can handle
as many people here.
Somebody has to help us.
People feel abandoned and
un-helped.
Democrats have begun to shift on
crime.
They are really pushing back
against defund the police.
Immigration is still a void and
a major issue for a lot of
people.
>> We will not know what has
been moving the electorate until
after the votes have been
counted and we know.
I don't think we should
underestimate the power of the
threat to democracy in the way
people are thinking about their
choices.
Folks are able to have several
thoughts in their heads at the
same time.
I interviewed Josh Shapiro,
attorney general who has a
monster lead for governor
against Doug Mastriano.
And he weaves his pitch -- we
have threats to democracy, and
if we don't do something about
that, we can also do something
about the economy, we can also
protect other rights and try to
help restore some rights that
were taken from the supreme
court.
There are a lot of things
cleaving the electorate.
This is their first of two
opportunities to send a message
or send people to various places
that they want something done.
>> Before we turn, one other
question, what are you seeing on
the campaign trail that is
uplifting?
That should lift our spirit?
>> I just like elections.
Frankly, we in the media get to
control the conversation most of
the time.
When the elections happen, a lot
of people get to control the
conversation.
People were about schools, you
knew that, but you feel it.
We feel how crime was a big
issue for a lot of people.
The border is a big issue.
The conversation always shifts
in the fall.
I like the way that shifts, it
reminds us what the people want
to hear about.
I think Kim Ryan in Ohio is
running probably the most
impressive campaign, midwestern
working-class Democrat, union,
tough on China, tough on trade,
that is the profile of the
democratic party, it is doing an
excellent job.
I'm not sure he will win, but
he's doing an excellent job.
>> I interviewed Liz Cheney this
weekend, she endorsed him, and
she's Republican.
Uplifting?
>> Josh Shapiro, it is wonderful
to talk to someone who is able
to articulate their vision of
where they want to take their
state.
Wes Moore, democratic candidate
for Maryland, a monster lead,
but also able to articulate why
he's running and why he wants to
lead the state of Florida.
I think congressman Tim Ryan, no
matter what happens on Tuesday,
if he wins, phenomenal.
If he doesn't, he's provided a
roadmap for Democrats in various
places.
This is how you talk about
issues that aren't just up here,
and may be ephemeral for some
folks, but here's our message on
economy, crime, various other
things where as Democrats we are
not afraid to talk about these
things, we will lean into them.
I don't think Democrats are as
afraid to talk about crime as we
talk about around this table, it
is just they could do a better
job.
>> I stand corrected.
I know we've only got a little
bit of time left, but I can't
let you both go without asking
about the supreme court argument
this week.
It sounds like with these six
conservative justices, they will
do away with affirmative action.
What does that say?
>> The best outcome to me is we
shift to a more class-based
affirmative action, and we get
to a spot --
the crime and higher Ed, so
universities have more people
from the top 1% from the bottom
60%.
If we switched to class-based
affirmative action, we can help
the people covered by
affirmative action because there
in underrepresented groups, poor
economic groups, and we can
diversify and get more
ideological diversity,
geographic diversity, and income
diversity.
I'm hoping if this happens,
which I don't support, but if it
does, there is an option to make
a better university system.
>> 20 seconds.
>> I would be really shocked if
the supreme court did anything
that would allow any piece of
affirmative action to survive.
A 6-3 super conservative
majority, it is gone.
I don't know how you institute
what you were talking about, but
we will talk about it another
time.
>> We will hear from them on
this in a couple of months.
It is election day Tuesday.
Jonathan Capehart, David brooks,
thank you both.