THE INDUSTRIAL IS UP 130
POINTS.
IF WE CLOSE TODAY, 6 DAYS IN A
ROW ON THE UPSIDE, WE HAVE A
TOP WALL STREET GUY WITH US, HE
HAS NOT BEEN ON THE SHOW
BEFORE.
KIND OF AUDITIONING FOR IT.
I HAVE GOT A LOT OF NERVE.
HIS NAME IS HANS OLSON, STIFLE
NICHOLAS'S GLOBAL HEAD OF
STRATEGIES.
>> NOT A MEMBER OF THE
NORWEGIAN OLYMPIC TEAM.
STUART: I TOLD THE AUDIENCE I
WAS GOING TO ASK WHY THE
GERMANS ARE SO GOOD AT THAT BUT
YOU ARE A NORWEGIAN.
IS THE WORST OVER ON WALL
STREET?
>> WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK
MAKES.
THIS IS THE POD.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE ECONOMY
APPEARS TO HAVE ACHIEVED THE
ESCAPE VELOCITY WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT THAT IT NEEDED
TO.
THE ORGANIC ACTIVITY IN THE
ECONOMY IS GOOD ENOUGH,
INFLATION, PRESSURE STARTING TO
BUILD, MONEY IS MOVING AND THE
CHALLENGE IS YOU START TO PIVOT
FROM LOW INTEREST RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH QUANTITATIVE
EASING TO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
INFLATION PRESSURES,
QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING AND THE
MARKET NOW HAS TO FIGURE OUT
THE APPROPRIATE MULTIPLE TO PUT
ON EARNINGS EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE GROWING.
STUART: IS THE WORST OVER?
WILL WE GO DOWN SOME MORE AND
CHALLENGE THOSE LOWS OR ARE WE
PAUSING PLATEAUING AND GOING UP
SOME MORE?
>> WE WILL SEE THINGS GET
QUIET, SMOOTH OUT FOR A BIT,
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS WHICH WILL
PUSH THE BOND MARKET AROUND
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THROUGH TO
STOCKS AND ANOTHER ABOUT OF
VOLATILITY IN THE STOCK MARKET
AND THE BOND MARKET.
STUART: I AM IN MY LATE 60s.
I HAVE DONE WELL OWNING
MICROSOFT FOR MANY YEARS.
I HAVE DONE REALLY WELL.
THAT I SELL ANY PART OF IT?
>> NO, YOU SHOULDN'T.
STUART: THAT WOULD BE TRUE OF
OUR OTHER VIEWERS WHO ARE
INTERESTED NOW.
DON'T SELL BECAUSE WE MIGHT GO
UP A BIT MORE.
>> YOU SHOULD LOOK AT THIS AS A
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION PROBLEM.
TYPICALLY WHEN WE HAVE BEEN
THROUGH THESE PERIODS IN THE
PAST, 1994 WAS A CASE IN POINT,
A VERY VOLATILE YEAR WAS TOUGH
FOR THE EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME
MARKETS.
ONCE YOU GOT THROUGH THAT
INTEREST RATE RESET 95, 96, 97
WERE PRETTY GOOD YEARS FOR THE
MARKET AND YOU HAD TO GET
THROUGH THAT RESET WHICH IS
WHAT WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES
OF RIGHT NOW.
STUART: WE DON'T KNOW HOW HIGH
INTEREST RATES WILL GO UNTIL WE
FIND OUT.
WE DON'T KNOW IF THE MARKET
WILL RESPOND FAVORABLY OR
OTHERWISE.
>> IT WILL PROBABLY RESPOND
UNFAVORABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO
NEW.
THERE'S AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF
PEOPLE IN THIS BUSINESS WHO
HAVE KNOWN ONLY ONE THING,
FALLING OR VERY LOW INTEREST
RATES WHICH IMAGINE A PERSON A
DECADE INTO THEIR CAREER
DEALING WITH AN INTEREST RATE
THAT IS POSITIVE IN REAL TERMS.
STUART: A GENERATION OUT THERE
HAS NEVER KNOWN PROSPERITY OR
THE FEELING OF PROSPERITY.
TELL ME ABOUT BID COIN.
PUT IT ON SCREEN, $10,000 A
COIN, 10,135.
IT HAS GONE UP RECENTLY, THE
MARKET HAS GONE UP AND IT WAS
DOWN AS THE MARKET WENT DOWN.
IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP?
>> THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP WITH
THE BOND MARKET, WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY COST.
BID COIN, THERE ARE THREE
THINGS PEOPLE NEED TO THINK
ABOUT.
AS A CURRENCY IT IS NOWHERE
NEAR BIG ENOUGH, $350 BILLION,
THE VALUE OF THE TOTAL STOCK.
STUART: IT IS NOT A MEDIUM OF
EXCHANGE.
BUT IF IT WERE THE SECOND
PROBLEM IS THIS, $350 BILLION
ESSENTIALLY THE MARKET, THAT IS
NOT A CURRENCY.
WHAT IF YOU REGULATE IT?
THE APPEAL IF IT IS TRUE
CURRENCY WILL BE REGULATED BY
SOMETHING, $10,000 OR MORE,
HAVE TO DO A CURRENCY REPORT
LIKE BANKS DO.
WHAT IS IT WORTH THEN?
THE THIRD THING IF YOU IGNORE
THE OTHER TWO AND STILL EMBRACE
IT AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO GOLD,
WHAT IS THE MARGINAL COST OF
PRODUCTION?
IT SHOULD TRADE IN RELATION TO
THE MARGINAL COST OF
PRODUCTION.
IT TRADES BASED ON LAST
CALCULATIONS MARGINAL COST