>>> MR. PRESIDENT, WHAT DO YOU
SAY TO DEMOCRATS WORRIED ABOUT
THE MIDTERMS?
>> WE'VE GOT A STORY TO TELL AND
HE'S GOING TOLD IT.
>> FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA WITH A
SIMPLE MESSAGE FOR DEMOCRATS
YESTERDAY DURING HIS FIRST TIME
BACK AT THE WHITE HOUSE SINCE
2017.
IT COMES AS NBC NEWS LEARNS THAT
HE PLANS TO PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE
IN HELPING DEMOCRATS BEFORE THE
MIDTERMS.
BUT HE'LL FOLLOW PRESIDENT
BIDEN'S LEAD.
A WAVE OF 23 HOUSE DEMOCRATS
ALREADY SAID THAT THEY WON'T RUN
FOR OFFICE AGAIN.
AND SEVERAL REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS
WHO VOTED TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT
TRUMP ALSO LEAVING, INCLUDING
MICHIGAN CONGRESSMAN, FRED
UPTON, WHO ANNOUNCED JUST
YESTERDAY THAT HE WON'T SEEK
RE-ELECTION.
>> WHEN WE STARTED -- WHEN WE
START TALKING ABOUT THE FOURTH
HOUR, I'M DEAD SERIOUS HERE, ONE
OF THE FIRST THINGS WE SAID IS,
WE NEED STEVE KORNACKI.
>> OH, RIGHT, YES, OF COURSE!
WELL NEEDED THE RAGE.
>> WE NEEDED HIM.
WE ACTUALLY MADE A CALL OF FRONT
OFFICE, AND SAID, WE NEED
KORNACKI.
>> JOINING US NOW --
>> BRINGING HOPE, AND LOVE, AND
JOY AND DATA.
>> Reporter: NATIONAL POLITICAL
CORRESPONDENT FOR NBC NEWS AND
MSNBC, STEVE KORNACKI.
STEVE, WHAT'S THE STATE OF PLAY
RIGHT NOW FOR NOVEMBER?
>> WELL, HAPPY TO BE A PART OF
THE FOURTH HOUR.
THANK YOU FOR THINKING OF ME.
I APPRECIATE IT.
LET'S TAKE YOU THROUGH WHAT WE
CAN SAY RIGHT NOW.
FIRST OF ALL, I THINK THE BIG
PICTURE THING TO KEEP IN MIND,
WRR
WHEREVER WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
MIDTERM ELECTIONS IS, THIS IS
THE HISTORY.
WE'RE GOING BACK HERE TO WORLD
WAR II.
AND THESE THINGS DON'T USUALLY
START OUT EQUAL, WHERE EITHER
PARTY HAS A CHANCE TO WIN OR
LOSE SEATS.
YOU'RE SEEING THE WHITE HOUSE
PARTY IN EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION,
THIS IS TAKING IT BACK TO 1942.
LOOK AT ALL OF THAT RED INK ON
THERE.
THOSE ARE LOST HOUSE SEATS.
THERE ARE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS,
2002, RIGHT AFTER 9/11, GEORGE
W. BUSH AND THE REPUBLICANS
DEFIED HISTORY.
1998.
THAT'S AS REPUBLICANS WERE
MOVING TO IMPEACH BILL CLINTON.
THERE WAS A BACKLASH AGAINST
THAT.
DEMOCRATS GAINED SEATS THEN.
EVERY OTHER MIDTERM ELECTION
GOING BACK, YOU SEE THERE INTO
THE 1940s.
THE OPPOSITION PARTIES GAIN
SEATS.
THE QUESTION HAS BEEN, HOW MANY.
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IN
TERMS OF THE BACKDROP.
LET'S LOOK AT MORE OF THE MODERN
HISTORY AND HOW BIDEN STANDS
RIGHT NOW POLITICALLY COMPARED
TO HIS RECENT PREDECESSORS.
WHAT THAT'S LOOKED AT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE AVERAGE
APPROVAL RATING FOR JOE BIDEN
RIGHT NOW, IT SITS AT 41%.
RIGHT NOW, TODAY.
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS EXACT SAME
POINT FOR HIS RECENT
PREDECESSORS, WHERE THEIR
APPROVAL RATING SAT.
YOU SEE THAT BIDEN NUMBER, VERY,
VERY SIMILAR TO WHERE TRUMP WAS
AT THIS POINT IN THE 2018
MIDTERM CAMPAIGN.
OBAMA WAS A FEW POINTS HIGHER,
ALTHOUGH HIS NUMBERS WERE ON THE
WAY DOWN AT THIS POINT IN 2010.
BUSH, WE MENTIONED, POST-9/11,
VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION.
BILL CLINTON WAS ACTUALLY AT
THIS POINT IN 1994, STILL AT
50%.
BUT YOU TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT
HAPPENED TO THESE PRESIDENTS IN
THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
AGAIN, CLINTON AND THE DEMOCRATS
TOOK A BATH.
JOE, I KNOW I DON'T NEED TO TELL
YOU ABOUT 1994.
BARACK OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS
LOST 63 SEATS IN 2010.
WE ALL REMEMBER THE 40-SEAT LOSS
FOR REPUBLICANS, LOSING CONTROL
OF THE HOUSE UNDER DONALD TRUMP
IN 2018.
SO, AGAIN, THAT'S THE MODERN
HISTORY.
YOU LOOK AT THAT BIDEN NUMBER.
IT'S IN LINE WITH WHAT'S BEEN
BAD NEWS FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
PARTY IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
AND AGAIN, WHAT REPUBLICANS NEED
TO GET THE HOUSE HERE, THEY GAIN
SEATS IN 2020, EVEN AS TRUMP
LOST.
THEY ONLY NEED TO GET UP TO 218.
SO THEY DON'T NEED A TSUNAMI
HERE TO GET CONTROL OF THE
HOUSE.
THE ONE THING, THOUGH, THAT I DO
THINK IS INTERESTING AND
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENT AND COMPLICATING THIS
TIME AROUND IS THIS.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SORT OF
SEATS THAT YOU WOULD -- HOUSE
SEATS WE'RE TALKING HERE, THAT
YOU WOULD CALL THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
THE ONES THAT THE OPPOSITION
PARTY THIS IS IT HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF PICKING OFF.
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
DEMOCRATIC-HELD DISTRICTS,
RIGHT?
A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES HERE,
THAT WENT FOR DONALD TRUMP,
RIGHT?
THAT'S AN OBVIOUS TARGET FOR
REPUBLICANS.
THE DISTRICT ALREADY VOTED FOR
TRUMP.
IT'S DEMOCRATIC-HELD NOW.
IT'S AN OBVIOUS TARGET IN THE
MIDTERM ELECTION.
THERE ARE TEN OF THOSE, OKAY?
IF YOU GO TO THE NEXT LEVEL,
THERE ARE DISTRICTS THAT
DEMOCRATS HELD, WHERE BIDEN WON,
BUT BIDEN WON NARROWLY.
LESS THAN FIVE POINTS.
THERE ARE EIGHT OF THOSE.
AND THE NEXT LEVEL, BIDEN WON BY
FIVE TO TEN POINTS.
THERE ARE 15 OF THOSE.
IF YOU ADD ALL THOSE ALL
TOGETHER, THERE ARE 33 TOTAL
SEATS THERE.
DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS RIGHT NOW.
BY THE WAY, REDISTRICTING STILL
PLAYING OUT.
THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE A
BIT.
BUT 33 TOTAL DISTRICTS THAT FALL
INTO THAT KIND OF PRIME
VULNERABILITY CANDIDATE FOR
DEMOCRATS.
JUST COMPARE THIS TO 2018.
AND TAKE A LOOK.
IT WAS DIFFERENT BACK THEN.
THE NUMBER OF REPUBLICAN-HELD
SEATS THAT HAD GONE FOR HILLARY
CLINTON WAS 25.
THE NUMBER THAT HAD GONE FOR
TRUMP BY LESS THAN FIVE POINTS
WAS 12.
THE NUMBER THAT HAD GONE BETWEEN
5 AND 12 POINTS FOR TRUMP WAS
26.
BASICALLY, THERE WAS 63
REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS IN 2018.
THEY FALL INTO SORT OF THIS
PRIME VULNERABILITY CATEGORY,
BECAUSE OF THE WAY
REDISTRICTING, GERRYMANDERING,
ALL OF THESE THINGS WE TALK
ABOUT, BASICALLY HALF AS MANY
RIGHT NOW, DEMOCRATIC SEATS THAT
FALL INTO THAT CATEGORY.
YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE HUGE
NUMBERS WE'VE SEEP IN THE PAST,
IN TERMS OF MIDTERM TSUNAMI
LOSSES FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
PARTY.
ONE THING THAT COULD INSULATE
DEMOCRATS SOMEWHAT, AT LEAST, IS
THIS.
>> IT'S FASCINATING TO LOOK AT
THE -- AND THE HOUSE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING BACK, RIGHT, TOWARD
REPUBLICANS.
BUT LET'S LOOK AT THE SENATE
MAP.
I KNOW YOU'VE GOT A COUPLE OF
RACES YOU'RE LOOKING AT.
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT GEORGIA A
MINUTE AGO.
REPUBLICANS PUBLICLY AND
PRIVATELY ARE VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON THERE WITH
AT LEAST ONE OF THEIR
CANDIDATES.
>> DONALD TRUMP GOT BEHIND HER
HERSCHEL WALKER.
LEGENDARY NAME IN SPORTS, BUT
THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW
REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN EXPRESSING
ABOUT HOW HE'LL HOLD UP AS A
CANDIDATE.
LOOKING AT A 50/50 SENATE, YOU
HAVE COMPETITIVE/POTENTIALLY
COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES HERE.
THE WAY I LOOK AT IT IS THIS.
IF YOU'RE REPUBLICANS, YOUR
THREE BEST OFFENSIVE TARGETS ARE
GEORGIA, ARIZONA, AND NEVADA.
THESE ARE THREE DEMOCRATIC-HELD
SEATS, WHERE I THINK REPUBLICANS
AT LEAST ON PAPER RIGHT NOW,
HAVE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF MAKING
GAINS.
YOU FLIP THAT AROUND, AND
DEMOCRATS, IF THEY WANT TO HOLD
ON TO THE SENATE, KEEP IT 50/50,
KEEP HAVING KAMALA HARRIS ABLE
TO BREAK THOSE TIES, TWO THINGS
TO KEEP.
PENNSYLVANIA IS THEIR CLEARLY
BEST TARGET HERE.
REPUBLICAN HELD, BUT AN OPEN
SEAT STATE THAT JOE BIDEN WON IN
2020, HUGE OPPORTUNITY THERE FOR
DEMOCRATS.
I THINK THE KEY FOR DEMOCRATS IS
WISCONSIN.
RON JOHNSON, TWO-TERM INCUMBENT.
TWICE DEMOCRATS HAVE GONE INTO
THE GENERAL ELECTION, THINKING
THEY'RE GOING TO BEAT JOHNSON.
TWICE, THEY'VE LOST.
IF THEY COULD BEAT HIM IN 2022,
I THINK THAT COULD SHIFT THE
MATH IN THEIR FAVOR.
THAT'S A HUGE ONE FOR THEM.
>> HE'S THE BEST.
>> WITHOUT QUESTION!
>> HE'S JUST THE BEST.
>> AND TO SEE THE KHAKIS UP
CLOSE, THERE'S ALMOST A GLOW --
>> I KNOW, I'LL TAKE A PICK FOR