With everything going on in cruising at the moment,
and the cruising shutdown,
I've decided I'm not going to post
any regular cruising content until the shutdown ends
and life starts to come back to normal.
However, I'm getting lots and lots of questions
from people, asking around what should they be doing
about their bookings, future bookings,
and a whole bunch of questions,
which I've been happy to answer
and very willing to answer.
And I've been doing that so far by email.
But I thought, what might be helpful,
is to share the thoughts that I have
and the answers to some of those questions
that I'm getting, and post those out here for people
that might be also interested.
So in this very first video, I wanted to address
the question I'm getting asked the most.
And it's really around, how soon can we go back cruising?
And what specifically should they be doing
around their bookings for April, May, June,
later in the year, as they start to be paying,
which is coming up now, final deposits.
And also should they be booking to take advantage
of some of the deals and offers
that are in the offering at the moment.
I have lots of cruise bookings for April, May, June,
and in fact, for the rest of the year,
so this is a very lively shift for me
and also some of the things that I've been thinking about.
So let's take a look at where we are at the moment
very briefly before I answer that,
so I thought it might be good to recap.
First of all, as we know, cruising is shutdown.
The initial period that most cruise lines are shutdown
is to around about the middle of April.
Couple of others have gone even further than that.
So you've got Princess already having announced
at the start, they were going through to May, for example.
MSC to the end of April.
You've also got Virgin Voyages that are now
only going to launch right at the end of July.
Secondly, most of the airlines have closed down
operations largely and fleets grounded
right through into May at least.
Quite along way into May.
Thirdly of course, governments are asking people
to come home if they're residents,
they're not letting non-residents in.
And a lot of borders are being closed.
Travel insurance of course, is largely locked down,
it's very hard to get.
And of course, ports all around the world have closed down.
So that's kind of where we are at this particular time.
As we look ahead, I think that this cruising shutdown
will of course, last longer than April
for a whole bunch of reasons.
First of all, because as we can see,
the lockdown and the things that are happening
in terms of movement of people, getting around,
staying at home, the importance of staying at home,
self-isolation and lockdowns,
is something that governments have been really clear
is going to carry on for a period of time.
So I think it's very unlikely that by April
people are going to be moving freely again.
Also airlines are not going to be around
to get you to cruises in April and May probably.
You're not going to be able to get travel insurance.
Government advisories going to stay in place
for their residents to stay.
They're not going to let foreigners.
And also, really important of course,
crew, particularly if they start moving back home
off the ships that are there,
it's going to be very difficult to get the crew back
and manning ships.
Another reason that the shutdown
probably won't be coming back that early,
is quite a few regions are closed.
So if you take a look, Canada, for example,
had already announced that all their ports
were closed to ships over 500 passengers
until the end of June.
New Zealand was the same.
Australia was putting restrictions in,
most of the ports in Asia were closed,
with no plans to reopen.
And ports are basically closed,
and I think we're going to see increasingly
that the timeline for ports opening
is going to be more like the Canadian
and New Zealand timeline,
then perhaps everybody else is hoping,
which will be much quicker.
Also the ships as we head into April, May,
normally the cruising season moves out of the Caribbean
which is where the bulk of the ships actually are,
and moves to the Mediterranean,
that's really where the cruising season.
And it's going to be very difficult I think,
to be moving ships around when you can't restart
and guarantee that you can actually get up and running
in the Mediterranean and Europe,
which of course is facing many many challenges.
Another absolutely critical thing
is in the whole run up to this shutdown
and everything that was going on in the world,
there was a strong advice for people over 70
not to go cruising.
And I don't think there's any sign
that that's going to be lifted anytime soon.
So certainly, if you're over 70
or heading towards the age of 70,
cruise lines were already asking
that you get medical certificates
saying that it was okay for you to travel.
So certainly I think there's going to be a big lockdown
around people over 70 or close to the age of 70 cruising.
So there's a whole bunch of reasons that I think,
actually we're going to see that actually the lockdown
is going to last much longer than we think.
So let's get really specifically,
if you have a booking in April, May or June,
what should you do?
And I have bookings for all of those three months.
What I'm doing is just sitting tight and waiting,
we have no idea what's going to happen with the shutdown,
everything is up in the air, it's very uncertain.
But what we do know is that the cruise lines
are absolutely inundated with people trying to chop
and change and cancel.
Cruise lines are offering up to 48 hours
before you embark, to cancel.
Airlines as well are offering for those flights
they haven't cancelled, you can cancel
and move at really short notice.
So what I'm actually doing, is I'm not doing anything
about my bookings in April and May,
I'm just letting them sit there and wait
to see what happens.
It also means that I'm not putting more stress and strain
on the cruise lines which are madly trying to solve
the problems they've got and really focusing
on cruises as they come up.
So basically, I'm just holding those
and waiting to see what happens.
Personally, I'm pretty convinced
I will not be cruising in April.
I also think May is looking really unlikely.
But at this stage, I'm just waiting and seeing
and holding on, and will make decisions
much closer to the time, because I am able to,
because I do have the flexibility.
And also the cruise lines and airlines which connect me
to all of those, are basically saying
you can cancel at short notice.
So I would say, just hold back and just wait,
and let things calm down.
As it gets closer to your cruise make a decision.
Perhaps, set a date.
So I've set myself a date,
sort of a week to 10 days before each of those,
where I will make a decision.
Of course, if you're over the age of 70
or you do see that you've got financial concerns,
I would go in and cancel those right now
just to give you the reassurance that that's happening
and that's all underway.
I've had a lot of emails and a lot of questions around
people who are about to pay their final deposit.
Normally you'd pay 90 days before a cruise
your last slug of money.
And historically, that has not been really refundable,
you've often loss 75 to 100% of that.
So people are saying, what should I do?
And actually, one of the big concerns that people have,
and have asked me a lot is,
should I pay because I'm concerned
with everything going on, that these cruise lines
are going to go bust, they're going to go out of service?
Personally, I'm less concerned about the bankruptcy thing
and I'll tell you why.
If you look at the three biggest companies,
you've got Carnival Corporation,
which of course control and own many of the brands,
from Holland America, Princess, AIDA, Carnival, of course,
P&O, P&O Australia, just loads and loads of cruise lines.
You've got Royal Caribbean,
which of course is Royal Caribbean,
it's got Silversea, it's got Celebrity,
it's got Azamara.
Then you've got the Norwegian Cruise Line,
which of course has Norwegian, Oceania, Regent Seven Seas.
These are very big, large corporation.
And in fact, Carnival is the biggest travel company,
I believe, in the world,
if you look at what it's worth and its assets.
So it's not only the biggest cruise company,
it's the biggest travel company.
These are vast complicated big businesses
and I believe that not only do they have the resources there
and will have the resources.
But I think it's very unlikely that governments
and institutions are going to want
or let these companies go bust,
because the amount of people they employ,
the value to the economy is so vast.
I think a way will be found if they do get tight
to keep those going.
Now bear in mind, that these companies
have massive big ships, they have huge big assets,
which of course, they can have as collateral
up against loans, government loans or whatever.
So that's not my concern.
I think, take a look at your company that you're booked with
and see if they're one of those really big corporations.
Now I do have a whole video
which I did a couple of months ago around who owns what.
So that video may be particularly helpful
if you're not sure.
If you're cruising on one of the smaller independent lines
that are independently owned,
you may want to be more cautious,
because of course they don't necessarily have
the same degree of resources,
and you may want to take a slightly more cautious approach.
But if you're one of the big corporations,
personally, I am pretty comfortable and relaxed about that.
Of course, again, you have to make up your own mind,
this is just what I'm doing and what my perception is.
So if you've got a final balance to pay
and you're really looking at cruises
which are heading out June, July, August time,
I think probably by then we may be back to more normality,
cruises may be going, so you may feel more comfortable again
because you can cancel at really short notice,
and it looks like also flights
you can cancel at short notice.
Again, the proviso, before you pay those big deposits,
does it make financial sense and also time sense
to then be going away on vacation, really really important.
And again, I think if you're over 70,
I would also again, consider putting cruising
on pausing until it all comes back to normal
and that advice gets removed.
And a lot of people have contacted me,
they've got cruises towards the end of the year,
not sure what to do.
My advice would be the same.
The other thing I get asked a lot is,
should I book cruises now for this year
with all these deals going?
Personally, I'm not sure that's a great idea.
Now, I don't want upset the people in the travel industry,
because of course they're desperate,
they're trying to get back to normal,
trying to make a living.
But what I would say is, it's still too uncertain,
we really don't know what's happening
at this stage and time.
So I would actually hold back,
particularly because travel insurance
could be a real challenge.
It's quite hard to get travel insurance
at this period of time, and there's lots of restrictions now
about what is does and doesn't cover.
So I would almost hold back, I would spend some time perhaps
looking at the cruises you want to go on.
Perhaps, agree the ones you want to go on,
and as things calm down and settle, book.
However, if you do want to really support the industry
and show support, what about looking at next year.
When I was on a cruise that just happened
as the shutdown was coming in place,
the future cruise people were really busy,
but they were busy with people booking for next year.
Because the view was actually, things would calm down,
we probably got on top of the situation,
things will be back to normal, I feel much more comfortable,
the deposits aren't that large at this point of time,
there's still a degree of flexibility.
So if you do want to make some sort of commitment.
Also give yourself something to look forward to,
why not actually look at the deals for next year.
Lock those in now while you can.
Pencil in perhaps a couple for this year and reassess.
I guess the key thing that I'm saying to most people
is obviously, you've got to make the decision
based on yourself, your financial situation, your age,
where you are, and when you believe things
will return to normal.
I think we're going to see the lockdown last much longer
than it is currently reflected.
So those are my thoughts about some of the questions
I've got, if you have any other questions
please do send those to me, I will try and answer them
in forthcoming episodes and editions.
Until then, please stay safe, look after yourself
and be very cautious, and I guess we can dream
when we're back to normal cruising and normal cruising tips.