>>> WELCOME BACK, LAST WEEK EVERYBODY WAS TALKING ABOUT THE
PRESIDENT’S RACIALLY CHARGED
ATTACKS.
ATTACKS. THIS WEEK EVERYBODY’S TALKING
ABOUT ROBERT MUELLER, TWO
STORIES YOU WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE
MAJOR ELECTORAL RAMIFICATIONS
FOR THE PRESIDENT, BUT HERE’S
WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE AFRAID OF,
THAT THERE ARE A WHOLE BUNCH OF
SCENARIOS WHERE DEMOCRATS GET
THE TURNOUT THEY’RE HOPING FOR
IN 2020 AND IT DOESN’T
NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO
VICTORY.
VICTORY. LET ME PUT THIS INTO SOME
CONTEXT HERE.
CONTEXT HERE. WE’VE BEEN HEARING A LOT OF
CHATTER ABOUT THIS LATELY.
IT’S THAT THING WHERE YOU HAVE A
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE POPULAR
VOTE AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
IN AMERICAN HISTORY WHERE YOU
HAD SOMEBODY WIN THE POPULAR
VOTE AND NOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY,
IT HAPPENED IN 1824, ANDREW
JACKSON, JOHN QUINCY ADAMS,
1876, IT HAPPENED THREE TIMES IN
THE 19th CENTURY, AND THEN IT
DIDN’T HAPPEN FOR MORE THAN A
CENTURY.
CENTURY. I REMEMBER GROWING UP IN THE
1990s, WE TALKED ABOUT ABOUT IT
AS SOMETHING THAT HAPPENED A FEW
TIMES IN THE PAST, BUT IT WAS
UNLIKELY TO EVER HAPPEN AGAIN.
THEN IN 2000 YOU REMEMBER GORE
AND BUSH, GORE WON THE POPULAR
VOTE BY ABOUT 600,000.
BUSH WON THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
THERE YOU HAD IT FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN MORE THAN A CENTURY, AND
THEN GUESS WHAT IN 2016 IT
HAPPENED AGAIN, AND AGAIN, IT
WAS THE DEMOCRAT, HILLARY
CLINTON WHO WON THE POPULAR
VOTE.
VOTE. DONALD TRUMP THE REPUBLICAN
BECOMES THE PRESIDENT.
OBVIOUSLY DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT
BEEN TOO HAPPY ABOUT THAT, AND
THE POSSIBILITY THIS IS THAT
CHATTER YOU’RE STARTING TO HEAR,
POLITICAL ANALYST HERE ALL THE
TIME, NATE COHEN IN THE "NEW
YORK TIMES," THEY WERE WRITING
ABOUT THIS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT YOU
SAW IN 2016 COULD HAPPEN AGAIN
IN 2020.
IN 2020. REMEMBER, HILLARY CLINTON WON
THE POPULAR VOTE BY NEARLY 3
MILLION VOTES IN 2016, AND WHEN
THEY’RE SAYING IS THERE’S A
POSSIBILITY WHERE THIS ELECTORAL
MAP DOESN’T BUDGE THAT MUCH,
WHERE THE DEMOCRATS THEY SAY
COULD EVEN DRIVE UP THEIR
SUPPORT FOR A STATE LIKE TEXAS.
DEMOCRATS DON’T WIN TEXAS, BUT
MAYBE THEY COULD DO BETTER IN
TEXAS BUT STILL GET ZERO
ELECTORAL VOTES, GET MORE
POPULAR VOTES OUT OF CALIFORNIA,
BUT IT’S ALREADY BLUE.
GET MORE VOTES OUT OF NEW YORK,
BUT IT’S ALREADY BLUE, AND THEN
MEANWHILE, TRUMP IN THOSE, YOU
KNOW, PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN,
WISCONSIN, THOSE MIDWEST STATES
WHERE THERE ARE A LOT OF BLUE
COLLAR WHITE VOTERS, NON-COLLEGE
WHITE VOTERS, THE TRUMP BASE
WHERE HE’S ABLE TO BRING
AUTOTHOSEAUTOOUT
AUTOTHOSEAUTOOUT THOSE FOLKS WHO AREN’T THERE FOR
HIM NECESSARILY, THEY COME BACK
IN 2020 AND THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS THAT TRUMP ONCE AGAIN
WINS THE PRESIDENCY, WINS
RE-ELECTION IN THE ELECTORAL
COLLEGE EVEN AS HE LOSES THE
POPULAR VOTE AND THEY SAY MAYBE
BY EVEN A LARGER MARGIN THAN IN
2016, AND THAT WOULD BE THREE
TIMES IF THAT HAPPENED, THREE
TIMES IN 20 YEARS.
DOES THE PROSPECT OF THAT CHANGE
DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY IN 2020 IN
TERMS OF WHO THEY NOMINATE.
WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY? HOW WOULD THAT AFFECTED AMERICAN
POLITICS?
POLITICS? YOU COULD TAKE IT ONE STEP
FURTHER IF YOU WANT TO TALK
THEORETICALLY HERE, HOW ABOUT
THIS, LET’S SAY THE DEMOCRATS
WON BACK PENNSYLVANIA.
LET’S SAY THEY WON BACK
MICHIGAN, BUT THERE’S THAT ONE
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, OMAHA,
CLINTON LOST BY FOUR POINTS IN
2016.
2016. LET’S SAY DEMOCRATS PULLED THAT
OFF IN 2020 AND EVERYTHING ELSE
STAYED IN THE SAME, YOU WOULD
HAVE THE 269, 269 TIE AND THEN
IT WOULD BE KICKED TO THE HOUSE
OF REPRESENTATIVES.
OF REPRESENTATIVES. IMAGINE THAT, IF THE DEMOCRATS
HAD WON THE POPULAR VOTE, THEY
GOT A 269-269 TIE IN THE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE, IT GOES TO
THE HOUSE, THE DEMOCRATIC HOUSE,
LET’S SAY DEMOCRATIC CONTROLLED
HOUSE, BUT IN THE HOUSE NOT
EVERY MEMBER GETS ONE VOTE.
IT’S EVERY STATE GETS ONE VOTE,
AND THERE ARE -- PROBABLY WILL
BE MORE STATE DELEGATIONS
CONTROLLED BY REPUBLICANS THAN
DEMOCRATS AND SO THE DEMOCRATIC
HOUSE WOULD PRESUMABLY REELECT A
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT WHO HAD
LOST THE POPULAR -- YOU COULD
PLAY THIS OUT IN SOME WAYS.
IF YOU THINK LOSING THE POPULAR