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My name is Ben.
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Guys, this is not a fun video.
This was not the video I was planning on making this morning.
So,
I woke up this morning at 4:45, of all times.
I woke up and I opened up my phone,
and I got a text from TJ.
And it was at 12:45, you know, last night.
And it said,
"Are you awake?"
"Bitcoin hit $44K."
No, I wasn't awake.
I had probably just gone to sleep.
But, yeah.
I mean, what a disaster of a night.
I mean, I really can't imagine a worse scenario for Bitcoin at this point.
As--
you know, it's time for us to start looking at multiple scenarios.
It is a very high climb
in a very short amount of time
to get to the numbers that we projected all year.
Now, it's at this point that it is important that, you know, you guys understand
I'm just a guy.
I'm just a guy who's in crypto every single day.
I've got sources that tell me stuff.
They don't always pan out.
You know, we looked at several different things over the year that did pan out,
several that didn't.
But I'm out here trying to make decisions the same way that you are.
I am out here trying to do the best I can with the information that I have.
Now, I say this all the time.
It is extremely easy to make money in crypto.
It is extremely difficult to take-- to make money in crypto day to day.
And this is why.
Because you get moves like this.
And this is why leverage trading can be so difficult.
But, you know, we've-- on this channel, we've done very well with leverage trading.
And I do want to mention,
if you feel like it's a good time to get in the market right now,
or you're interested in shorting the market,
we're actually going to be joining the Phemex trading competition.
You guys, I'll drop the link down below in the description,
if you want to sign up for our team.
We'll be talking more about it next week.
So you sign up for the team and then you go to bitboycrypto.com/deals
and click the link, the Phemex link,
in order to, you know, sign up and get a big bonus
if you're not signed up already.
Ethereum held pretty well actually.
I mean, Ethereum, right at $4,000, held pretty well, so.
It held up much better than Bitcoin.
It's increased its value against Bitcoin,
but that's probably for a different video.
That's my child coming out.
You guys see my garage in its full glory.
We're getting new flooring.
But anyways,
so here's the thing, guys.
The thing is,
is that, like I said,
these videos are not fun to make,
but we do have to start planning for multiple scenarios at this point.
And this is the most important Bitcoin video you're going to watch.
And I know I've said that a few times about a few different videos,
and it's been true a few times about a few different, you know, scenarios,
but we're basically facing three scenarios right now.
There are only three scenarios right now.
No. 1,
this was the 2017 40% dump right before things went parabolic.
It's possible.
Ah!
I mean, it's hard for me to go away from my sources on what I've been told about stuff,
hard for me to believe that this person would be wrong about things,
so there's a chance that this scenario still exists.
There is a chance.
There's also the scenario that exists that a lot of people are favoring right now,
which is that we are in a long consolidation period.
We are going to consolidate all December, all January, probably all February,
maybe March.
Quarter 2 next year, we start going back up.
That is a boring scenario.
But that scenario ultimately ends with Bitcoin going parabolic again
in a $200,000 to $300,000 Bitcoin.
I've given you all the reasons why I don't think that's going to happen,
but, hey, it certainly is possible at this point.
A lot of people would say likely.
One thing's for sure.
That stock-to-flow model is looking pretty goofy right now.
You guys have got to admit that.
But anyways, guys,
the third scenario, and I believe,
you know.
I personally believe,
based on my convictions,
that either the first scenario or the third scenario are the most likely.
We're in a bear market.
We could be in a bear market.
$70,000 could have possibly been the top for Bitcoin.
And let me tell you, that chaps me.
That makes me really angry to think that that's the case.
But here's what smart Bitcoin investors--
here's what smart crypto investors do during these times, okay?
You don't just quickly run off in one direction.
You have to think about the repercussions of all three of these scenarios
and position yourself
so that you're in the best scenario for the long term.
Now, there is certainly a possibility that exists that we are looking at a bear market,
and it would make sense right now to sell.
I--
it's one of the three scenarios, right?
So whether you think one is going to happen for sure or a combination,
if we go into a long consolidation period,
you know, then we are potentially looking at, you know, more downside.
Oh! The number a lot of people have said though,
he--
I do want to say this.
And let me give you the number to be extremely alarmed.
If we were to pierce through this number,
sell it all.
Sell it all.
If we pierce below $40,000,
get out of this market.
If we go below $40,000,
we are certainly--
we certainly-- well, let's do the math here.
If we are in a bear market,
which is possible at this point,
when you are looking at a $70,000 Bitcoin,
which is essentially what we had,
if you were to say Bitcoin were to do an 85% drop,
similar to what we've seen in other markets,
which,
oh, those people that tell you there's no bear market,
those people are, you know, smoking crack.
Okay?
If we do the simple math on that,
that would put Bitcoin--
let's see.
A 10% drop from $70K would be $7,000,
so that means that an 80% drop would put us quite low.
I think the number we would be looking at would be somewhere around $11,000 for Bitcoin
if it took an 85% drop.
I think those numbers are in play if we are in fact in a bear market.
What have we done at BitBoy Crypto?
Because that's the important question, right?
Is, what are we doing with our crypto holdings?
Because that's the truest barometer and indicator of what we believe.
Okay?
We haven't sold anything yet,
but we're considering it.
We are considering selling some of our crypto holdings.
Because you guys have to remember,
we have a--
we have a business to run,
and so we have to have enough money set aside for the bear market,
just like projects do.
Projects do the same thing.
But we've not done it yet.
We've not made the decision to do it yet.
And I think what I'm going with,
I think what we're going to do,
is we're going to stand pat,
if Bitcoin goes below $40,000,
we're going to sell everything.
Everything.
Like we said in the past, 80% of everything.
So that's the number that we're going to monitor.
That's the number that we're going to watch.
That's the number that I'm going to give to my people.
We have bounced back up to $47K.
47--
well, it was at $47.1K, I think, when I started this video.
So that's what we're doing.
So we don't have paper hands.
We--
Diamond hands is a meme.
That's a stupid thing to say diamond hands
because that means if it drops 90%, just hold.
That's dumb.
We all know that.
But we are looking at scenarios.
If it goes below $40,000,
we are getting out of the market, and we are declaring this a bear market.
So that is something to watch.
I think that--
I'm very concerned.
Right now, I'm very, very, very concerned.
I understand the responsibility that we have on this channel,
but at the same time,
I'm also just somebody with very strong opinions.
I know I have very, very strong opinions,
and sometimes I may say my opinions are facts,
like what I think is a bad haircut,
but the the truth is, is that
I'm just like you trying to do the best I can in this market.
I've done very well in this market over a multi-year period.
Anyone who's been in this market for a multitude of years
has done very well and has absolutely crushed it.
Nobody really saw this giant dump coming.
No one saw it coming.
That does make me think maybe it's coordinated.
Maybe I'll get some information on this later in the day
that makes me feel better about things
because that's usually the way this works,
is I panic a little bit,
then I get some news, I get some information,
I feel a little bit better.
So we'll see what happens.
This will probably not be my last video of the day.
For me updating you in real time.
I think everybody right now is kind of on edge,
and, you know, I do want everybody to understand,
I--
I'm not afraid to swallow my pride and say I was wrong about things.
And you can't be either.
Holding on to a belief when it no longer makes sense is asinine.
And I lead too many people here, I shepherd too many people in crypto,
to put my pride above your financial situation.
So, we think about that a lot.
We consider a lot when we make decisions,
and so just know that our direction right now,
if it goes below $40K,
we're getting out.
If it goes below $40K.
So alright, guys.
I'll be back probably later.
Definitely tonight, I will be making a video at least.
Maybe throughout the day if something crazy happens.
Or if I get some more information, maybe I'll come on and update you guys.
So, for now, I'll get to my kid's basketball game,
his first basketball game today.
He's six.
He's probably going to dunk.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.