If I were to ask you which geopolitical conflict has been producing the most headaches for
many decades now, which one would you think of?
I warn you that we are talking about one that needs a lot of pain killers.
Conflict, chaos, headaches...
We are talking, of course, about the Middle East, specifically about one of the longest
conflicts in history and a regular one here on Visualpolitik: the one between Israel and
Palestine.
You see, the fact is that, the solution proposed by the UN in 1947 on the existence of two
States in Palestinian territory, one Arab and one Jewish, has been sidelined with the
progressive and constant advance of Israel throughout this territory.
Something that, as you already know, has been one of the main historical causes of the tension
that has existed for decades between Israel and the rest of its Arab neighbors.
Even so, this well-known enmity, which has caused so many conflicts in the Middle East,
has been calming down in recent years, especially since the famous Abraham Accords were signed
in 2020.
At last we began to see the light at the end of that dark tunnel!
However, VisualPolitik viewers, there are certain setbacks that threaten to jeopardize
the renewed peace between Israel and its Arab partners.
A new government has arrived in Israel and hopes for a lasting peace and a new cooperative
relationship between the region and the country are beginning to fade.
And that has made us at VisualPolitik ask ourselves a few questions: How did Israel
manage to smoke the peace pipe with its former Arab archenemies?
What is happening in Palestine so that such important agreements could be said to be at
risk?
Could the dream of a Palestinian State disappear forever?
Today we are going to answer these questions, but first let's look at a bit of history.
(ISRAEL VS.
EVERYONE)
It is not common to see how a coalition of countries confronts one single State: the
War of the Triple Alliance or the War of the Pacific in Latin America in the 19th century
were some good examples.
But do you know which country has also faced a similar situation?
Indeed, Israel.
Since its creation in 1947 by the United Nations, this country has practically experienced one
conflict after another.
Only a year after its creation, in 1948, an alliance formed by its Arab neighbors, Egypt,
Transjordan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon occupied certain territories in southern and eastern
Palestine that had not been granted to Israel by the United Nations.
The fighting began and did not end until the following year with the signing of an armistice
by most of the Arab countries involved in the conflict.
This then became Israel's dynamic with its Arab neighbors: wars in which Israel almost
always won were followed by peace agreements and armistices that soon came to nothing.
This happened in 1956 in the Suez Canal conflict, in 1967 with the Six-Day War and in 1973 with
the Yom Kippur War.
The conflicts of everyone against Israel ended with the signing of a peace treaty with Egypt
in 1979 and another with Jordan in 1994.
Finally, Israel would only participate in two more wars against a single country, Lebanon,
in 1982 and 2006, in both cases to attack two specific groups: the Palestine Liberation
Organization and Hezbollah.
Since then, wars between Israel and its Arab neighbors have ceased, although hostilities
have not.
At least not with everyone.
Yet Israel maintains another open front that is practically always hot: the Palestinian
front.
The tensions between Israel and Palestine are well known to all: most of you will certainly
have heard about the first and second intifada, the armed uprisings against Israel in 1987
and 2000.
And you will also be familiar with the failure of the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, agreements
that established a new territorial division and the creation of a Palestinian Authority.
Well, the fact is that despite all the attempts that have been made to achieve peace between
the two factions, tensions and conflicts have not ceased at any time since the ceasefire
that ended the second intifada in 2005.
For years news headlines like these was more or less commonplace:
(5 August 2014: Israel's bombardment of Gaza: 400 children killed and 2,500 injured.
– The World)
(18 October 2018: Seven Palestinians killed during the Great March of Return protests,
in pictures.
– El País)
However, unlike what is happening in Palestine, Israel has managed to normalize relations
with some of those Arab countries with which it could not even have imagined having any
form of friendship back in the 20th century.
So how did this come about?
Well, thanks to agreements that we have already told you about on this channel: the Abraham
Accords.
These agreements, promoted by the Trump administration, enabled Israel to normalize its relations
first with the United Arab Emirates, and later with three other countries: Bahrain, Sudan
and finally Morocco.
And do you know who has been particularly unhappy about these Agreements?
Exactly, Palestine.
The Palestinians understood that the signing of these agreements by Arab countries broke
the commitment signed in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, which prohibited all Arab countries
from normalizing relations with Israel until the Palestinian State was declared.
So, as you can imagine, if relations between Israel and Palestine were already strained,
these agreements made nerves run even higher and the conflicts between the two intensified.
(4 May 2021: Palestinian government protests to the International Criminal Court over eviction
in an East Jerusalem neighborhood.
– EuropaPress)
(22 August 2021: Israel bombs Hamas in Gaza, after clashes in new border protest.
– France24)
The clashes continued in 2022, a year that became, according to the United Nations, the
bloodiest year of the conflict since the end of the second intifada in 2005.
Of course, in 2023 everything indicates that we could be facing a new record, this time
sponsored by a very specific and very particular actor: the new Israeli government.
Pay close attention.
(RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM IN ACTION)
Many hoped that in 2023 the waters between Israel and Palestine would calm down again,
but nothing could be further from the truth.
The conflicts have continued.
For example, on 27 January, Palestine recorded the killing of nine Palestinians during a
military raid on the refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin, a camp that is used by
Palestinian Islamic Jihad as a base.
On the same day, seven Israelis were killed outside a synagogue in Jerusalem.
Well, this is the dynamic that has been dominating so far in 2023, a dynamic that is going from
bad to worse.
And the question is, who are all the analysts pointing to as the main culprit of this situation?
Well, in this case they usually point to a very specific player: the new government led
by Netanyahu in Israel.
Formed in December 2022, the new Israeli government has become the most extremist in the history
of the country.
Led once again by Benjamin Netanyahu, this new government has been formed as a coalition
of Likud with an ultra-Orthodox party, two extreme right-wing parties and two religious
extremists: the Religious Zionism party, an ultra-nationalist faction affiliated with
the Israeli occupation movement in the West Bank; and the Jewish Power party, led by Itamar
Ben-Gvir, a guy who was convicted in the past for incitement to racism against Arabs and
who is now the current Minister of National Security.
And, take note, because this new government has never hidden its expansionist overtones.
It has certainly dispelled all doubts about its intentions in Palestinian territory:
("The Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all areas of the Land
of Israel.
The government will promote and develop settlement in all parts of the Land of Israel: in the
Galilee, the Negev, the Golan and Judea and Samaria (West Bank)" – First point of the
government program of the 37th Government of Israel).
Therefore, it is not surprising that the number of Israeli settlement or occupation campaigns
in the West Bank has increased.
Added to this is another factor that seriously affects the Palestinian position: the weakness
of the Palestinian Authority.
You see, the thing is, the dissatisfaction of all Palestinians with this authority is
widespread.
It acts as a kind of private policeman for Israel in the West Bank, partly because its
leader, Mahmoud Abbas, thinks that violence is not productive for Palestinian aspirations,
which is fine, but also because, otherwise, it would stop receiving funding from the United
States and the European Union.
So, in order to avoid violence, it has gone so far as to threaten and even attack the
very Palestinians it is supposed to defend.
And, not only that, Israel's occupation operations in the West Bank make many Palestinians think
that the Palestinian Authority is complicit with Israel.
Therefore, some analysts are suggesting that it is quite possible that the Palestinians
may start a third intifada.
But this is rather unlikely. he reality is that, for a third intifada to
succeed, Israel would have to be just as dependent on its Palestinian partners as before and
would have to have the same military capabilities as in 2000, and this is not the case.
In fact, the advances in military technology in Israel have been impressive.
On top of that, Palestine is in a worse condition than in 2000, both because it no longer has
the unconditional support of all Arab countries and because it has no cohesive figure in Palestinian
society such as Yasser Arafat did in the past.
However, even if the new Israeli government's escalation of hostilities does not end with
a third intifada, it does risk losing its new, budding and lucrative friendships with
its Arab neighbors.
But to what extent could growing Israeli hostility toward Palestine erode the Abraham Accords?
That is the crucial question and we will answer it right now.
(THE END OF THE ABRAHAM AGREEMENTS?)
I am sure that many of you, at first glance, think that if the Abraham Accords were dissolved
it would not have a big impact, it would not be that big a deal.
After all, it would be a return to the previous dynamic.
But do you know what these agreements have meant for the Middle East?
Yes, yes, the normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries.
But what has that meant?
Well, among other things, it lead to news like this:
(Israel reports record $12.5 billion defense exports, 24% of them to Arab partners.
– Reuters)
Indeed, VisualPolitik community, thanks to the Abraham Accords, Israel has boosted its
arms sales.
For example: with the United Arab Emirates, to which it has exported the Barak and Spyder
air defense systems, which has caused this type of trade between the two countries to
increase from $180 million in 2020 to $1 billion in 2021.
And, not only that, they have even been able to close a free trade agreement with which
trade is expected to reach $6.5 billion by the end of this decade.
However, these agreements have not only generated significant economic benefits, but have also
served to present a common front against what is now considered by many to be the greatest
threat in the region: the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Many of the Persian Gulf countries have put the Palestinian issue on the back burner and
have begun to focus on Iran and the security challenges it poses to their own territory.
And naturally, in this context, having access to Israel's advanced weaponry is a major asset
in dealing with Iran.
Yet just because the Palestinian issue has taken a back seat for many does not mean that
it has ceased to matter to Arab countries.
The arrival of the most extremist government in Israel's history and the unnecessary escalation
of tensions in Palestinian territory has raised hackles even in some countries that are signatories
to the Accords:
(23 June 2023: Morocco delays "Abraham Accords" summit until after summer.
– Reuters)
(20 June 2023: UAE "strongly" condemns Israeli attacks on Palestine's Jenin.
– AlArabiya)
However, despite this fresh escalation of tensions with Palestine, the reality is that
the Abraham Accords are unlikely to break down.
In fact, throughout recent history, peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan have survived
despite Israel's steady advance into Palestinian territory.
What’s more, in 2021 the Abraham Accords survived the bombings between Israel and Gaza.
Nevertheless, this escalation of tensions may hinder one of Netanyahu's greatest hopes:
that Saudi Arabia will sign the Abraham Accords.
While the Saudis have made normalization of relations with Israel conditional on US support
for the development of a civilian nuclear program in the country, they have also demanded
to see progress in Palestine.
And, if Netanyahu really wants to achieve this goal, he will have no choice but to show
such progress, since the signing of the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, promoted by
China in March this year, has reduced the need to create a common front to confront
it.
You see, VisualPolitik viewers, the escalation of tensions so far this year between Israel
and Palestine has been fierce.
The new Israeli government is encouraging the colonization of the Palestinian West Bank,
is evicting Palestinian families and, in general, is fueling a fire that could easily turn into
a blaze.
And, true, a third intifada is not likely, but Netanyahu must be equally concerned about
what his new Arab partners think about the actions of his new government and its partners.
The juggling that Netanyahu will have to do between his government partners, his new Arab
partners and the patience of an increasingly weakened Palestine will have to be precise
to prevent the situation from exploding.
But, at this point, the questions are now for you: Do you think Israel's new Arab partners
can exert pressure in order to ease tensions?
Will we see the beginning of a third intifada?
Will Saudi Arabia finally join the Abraham Accords?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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