Speaker 1: Let's now talk about the possible outcomes to the 2022 midterm election.
There are four possible outcomes to the midterms that are now just a few weeks away.
Three of the outcomes are really pretty bad.
So let's explore what these outcomes are.
We have control of the house up for grabs and control of the Senate up for grabs.
If we look at the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Democrats are by a roughly 2 to 1 margin favored
to win the Senate, roughly by a 2 to 1 margin favored to win in the Senate.
And if you look at the House, Republicans are by a greater than 2 to 1 margin favored
to win the House.
So if we want to put numbers to this, there's a roughly 70% chance that Republicans win
the House and a roughly 67% chance that Democrats win the Senate.
So you essentially have four possible outcomes.
Imagine a two by two grid.
Democrats could win both the House and Senate.
Republicans could win both the House and Senate.
You could have Democrats win the House but lose the Senate.
You could have Democrats win the Senate but lose the House.
Those are the four scenarios.
So let's do some simple probability math.
These should add up to 100%.
These are the four possible outcomes, and we're going to do these in order of likelihood.
And then you have the following.
Based on the FiveThirtyEight projections, the most likely outcome is Democrats win the
Senate and Republicans win the House.
That's 46%.
You've got a 24% chance that the Republicans win both.
You've got a 20% chance that Democrats win both.
And then you've got a 10% chance that Democrats win the House, but Republicans win the Senate.
That's the least likely outcome.
So let's start with the least likely and work up.
If Democrats win the House and Republicans win the Senate, it's not going to happen.
But it would mean that Democrats pass a ton of stuff in the House that Joe Biden wants,
and basically none of it gets passed the Senate.
It's a done deal.
It's really good for Republicans in 2024.
They can say, look, they had the House and the White House.
They proposed nothing reasonable.
The Senate had to block the stuff they wanted to do, vote for Republicans in 2024.
Okay.
Next scenario is that Democrats win both.
This is the best outcome, quite frankly.
There's only a 20% chance of that.
Now, in this scenario, the Senate margin is not 6040, meaning that it remains like the
last two years.
A lot of stuff.
You need 60 votes in order to pass.
So Democrats, if they held both the House and Senate, would be able to get some things
done.
Republicans would obstruct in the Senate for everything that require 60 votes.
They would claim these Democrats are so extreme in what they propose, we have no choice.
Next scenario, in order of likelihood going up is Republicans take the House and the Senate.
Now, that's also not the most likely scenario.
It's obviously disastrous.
Nothing will get done for two years if Republicans take both.
They will try to blame Biden, even though it is their obstruction that will prevent
anything from getting done.
They will say We had no choice.
Everything Biden and the Democrats put forward was so extreme that we had to block it.
It will give them a good setup for 2024, including to actually try to influence the election
itself by all sorts of subterfuge and arguably illegal means.
The most likely outcome, a plurality, is that Democrats win the Senate and Republicans win
the House.
There's a nearly 50% chance of that particular individual result.
In that scenario, Republicans will stop things in the House.
Democrats will control the Senate, but will have no super majority.
And it will mean that almost nothing happens.
Biden will be blamed, Democrats will be blamed, and then Republicans will use it to their
advantage in 2024.
So what has to happen?
Obviously we should not concede the House, but the math of it is very much not in the
favor of Democrats.
So the scenario that is the most likely is Democrats keep the Senate by a small margin,
but lose the House.
What we need to see is some of the gubernatorial races go to the Democratic candidate, because
ultimately you are going to have, I believe, very little accomplished during the next two
years thanks to Republicans taking the House.
And then you will have a 2024 election, which may come down to governors in key states potentially
stealing electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is a huge issue where Josh SHAPIRO has to beat off a challenge from Doug Mastriano,
who he will try to steal the Pennsylvania electoral votes for the Republican nominee.
We know that.
So Josh SHAPIRO has got to win in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
This radical big lie purveyor, Carrie Lake, is currently winning by a little bit.
Arizona is another important state where if you have a Republican governor who is a full
big lie proponent, she may try to steal the Arizona electoral votes for the Republican
candidate, even if they don't actually win the popular vote in that state.
So I believe that the most likely scenario here is Democrats keep the Senate, lose the
House, and the next two years will ultimately conclude with do Democrats control enough
governors houses that they can prevent the theft of the 2024 election if the Democratic
candidate is to win?
It's also possible that the next two years are so disastrous that a Republican president
legitimately wins in 2024.
We can't deal with that now.
What we can deal with is who do we vote for in just three and a half weeks?
I think roughly three, two and a half weeks, three and a half weeks.
And these are the four scenarios.
Let me know your thoughts.
We will have this and all of our other clips on our Instagram, which you can find at David
Pakman show