THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE IN NEW YORK IS CLOSER THAN WE
PROBABLY WOULD'VE IMAGINED A FEW MONTHS AGO.
I HAVE SEEN POLLS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE IT AT 12 POINTS, WHICH IS NOWHERE NEAR
WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, BUT THAT IS NOT A BLOWOUT
CONSIDERING HILLARY CLINTON WAS THE SENATOR FROM THAT STATE
NOT LONG AGO.
YOU ARE ALSO SUPPOSED TO SAY AND SHE WAS UP 18 POINT IN MICHIGAN.
AND SHE WAS ALSO UP 18.2 MICHIGAN.
SO ASSUMING HISTORY
STRIKES AGAIN, HE WILL WIN BY 35 POINTS.
BUT IN ADVANCE OF THAT,
SHE IS RUNNING ADS IN NEW YORK.
NOT ABOUT BERNIE SANDERS, SHE
APPARENTLY WANTS TO AVOID MENTIONING HIM BY NAME, BUT SHE
IS TALKING ABOUT SOMEBODY ELSE THAT NEW YORKERS MIGHT BE
FAMILIAR WITH, AND SOME THINGS HE HAS SAID RECENTLY.
I HAVE TO
SAY THAT THE MESSAGING IN THE AD IS QUITE GOOD.
IT IS VERY
POSITIVE, YOU WILL SEE A SECTION RIGHT HERE.
NEW YORK. 20 MILLION PEOPLE STRONG.
NO, WE DON'T ALL LOOK
THE SAME.
WE DON'T ALL SOUND THE SAME EITHER.
BUT WHEN WE PULL
TOGETHER WE DO THE BIGGEST THINGS IN THE WORLD.
SO IN SOME
SAY WE CONSULT AMERICA'S PROBLEMS BY BUILDING WALLS,
BANNING PEOPLE BASED ON THEIR RELIGION, AND TURNING AGAINST
EACH OTHER, WELL, THIS IS NEW YORK, AND WE KNOW BETTER.
ON HILLARY CLINTON, AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES TO THAT AD, BUT THAT
IS GENERALLY TO SORT OF AT I LIKE TO SEE.
IT IS POSITIVE, IT
FIGHTS BACK AGAINST DANGEROUS RHETORIC FROM THE OTHER SIDE,
AND IT APPEALS TO WHAT IS GREAT ABOUT AMERICANS, WHETHER NEW
YORKERS SPECIFICALLY OR OTHER AMERICANS.
IT DOESN'T MENTION
TRUMP SPECIFICALLY -- IT SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF HIS NAME.
AND IT SHOWS A LITTLE BIT FROM ONE OF HIS RALLIES.
IT IS NEW
YORK CITY-CENTRIC, YOU SEE AN OLD COUPLE AT THE END WHO
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THEY ARE FROM THE CITY AND THERE'S A WATERFALL
AT SOME POINT QUICKLY, BUT THIS IS A NEW YORK CITY AD.
HERE IS
WHAT IS HAPPENING, SHE IS RUNNING AGAINST DONALD TRUMP IN
THIS AD.
NOT RUNNING AGAINST BERNIE SANDERS.
THIS AD, , I
DON'T KNOW IF IT WOULD BE UP IF THERE WAS NO PRIMARY, BUT IT
MIGHT HAVE BEEN.
REPUBLICANS, IF DONALD TRUMP IS THE NOMINEE, HE
HAS A LITTLE MORE APPEAL, NATURAL APPEAL, IN NEW YORK THAN
SOMEBODY LIKE JOHN KASICH OR TED CRUZ.
HE WILL WIN NEW YORK VERY
BEING, I THINK SHE WILL WIN NEW YORK WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN --
NEW YORK, FAIRLY RELIABLY DEMOCRATIC.
HE HAS LIVED THERE FOR A LONG TIME --
THIS IS THE ONE STATE WHERE HIS APPEAL THAT WE HAVE ALL
QUESTIONS ALONG THE WAY COULD BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT HE
IS A NEW YORKER, NEW YORKERS HAVE BEEN GIVEN TO LIKING HIM
BEFORE ANYONE KNEW WHO HE WAS.
OTHERS ALSO HATED HIM, I'M A NEW
YORKER AND I HAVE NOT LIKE DONALD TRUMP FOR FOREVER.
UP UNTIL A FEW YEARS AGO I DIDN'T HAVE ANY OPINION ON THEM.
I MISS THOSE DAYS.
I HAD A SHARP OPINION ON HIM FOR A LONG TIME.
BUT HERE'S THE
THING, YOU GO TO BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTERS, THERE IS ALWAYS
BEWILDERMENT -- WHY ISN'T SHE NAMING BERNIE SANDERS?
HE COULD
DO WELL HERE.
HE'S NOT GOING TO WIN NEW YORK.
BUT WHAT THIS IS A
VICTORY FOR IS FOR SANDERS, BECAUSE THE MORE HE ENGAGES HER
IN NEW YORK, THE MORE HE ASKS FOR DEBATE, THE MORE HE OPENS
THE CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS IN BROOKLYN, WHERE HER HECKLERS IS,
THE LESS SHE CAN SPEND IN OTHER STATES AND DO DAMAGE TO HIM.
THAT IS THE VICTORY FOR BERNIE SANDERS.
I DON'T SEE HIM WINNING
THERE, BUT THIS AD IS A FEEL-GOOD AD FOR NEW YORK,
THAT IS A GOOD THING TO DO FOR HILLARY CLINTON IN THE
PRIMARY AND AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.
THE PRIMARY IS ON THE 19TH, ONE POLL SAYS IT IS 12, GOD
KNOWS IF IT IS 12 OR 16 OR EIGHT, I DON'T KNOW.
WE HAVE
SEEN LARGE MOVEMENT IN THE POLLS, WE HAVE SEEN SOME POLLS
THAT WERE REALLY INACCURATE.
GENERALLY THE POLLS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY GOOD ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, AND LOOK, IF YOU ARE
LOOKING IN TERMS OF BERNIE SANDERS'S TOTAL CHANCES, I
ALWAYS HAVE TO STRESS, HIM WINNING NEW YORK BY A POINT
SYMBOLICALLY WOULD BE READILY STRONG BECAUSE IT IS HER STATE,
BUT LOSING BY A POINT HELPS HIM TOWARDS THE NOMINATION BY ALMOST
99% AS MUCH AS WINNING BY A POINT, BECAUSE IT IS
PROPORTIONAL.
IT IS ALL ABOUT THE DELEGATES.
A CLOSE RACE HOUSE BERNIE SANDERS, AND PEOPLE WILL
SAY HOW CAN YOU SAY IT IS OVER?
THAT IS NOT THE POINT I WAS MAKING.
I KNOW, BUT HERE'S THE THING, YOU ARE RIGHT.
THAT IS A GOOD
PLACE -- IF THERE WAS A STATE THAT WOULD BE A NATURAL STATE
FOR HIM TO DO WELL IN, THAT WOULD BE NEW YORK, EVEN THOUGH
SHE IS FROM NEW YORK.
HE IS FROM NEW YORK TOO.
LISTEN TO HIM
SPEAK.
EVERYONE WHO SAT AROUND ME AT RANGERS GAMES SOUNDS LIKE
BERNIE SANDERS.
THAT IS WHO WE ARE DEALING WITH.
IS IT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HE DOES WELL IN NEW YORK?
NO, I JUST DON'T THINK HE WILL WIN IT.
BUT I THINK HE WILL DO WELL AND I THINK TO YOUR POINT THAT
WILL HELP.
THAT IS THE POSITIVE.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE DEBBIE DOWNER, I
SEE IT AS BEING REALISTIC, MANY SAY IT IS BEING DEBBIE DOWNER --
WINNING BY A POINT HELPS, IT IS BETTER THAN LOSING BY 10 POINTS,
BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS WINNING BY 15.
OF THE DELEGATES
LEFT, NEW YORK IS A CHUNK, SO IF HE FULLY SPLITS IT WITH HER,
THAT IS A WIN FOR HIM IN SOME WAY --
DEBBIE DOWNER IN THE SENSE OF WHAT?
THAT HE REALISTICALLY NEEDS TO BEAT HER BY 50 OR 20 POINTS.
HE NEEDS TO DESTROY HER THERE BECAUSE THERE ARE A LOT OF
DELEGATES ON THE LINE.
HE WILL HAVE TO DO HIS DESTROYING ELSEWHERE.
HE MIGHT WELL HAVE TWO.
DESTROYING HER IN NEW YORK I DON'T THINK IT'S IN THE CARDS.
I'M NOT SAYING IT WILL, I'M SAYING THAT HIM SIMPLY WINNING
IS A WIN IN MULTIPLE WAYS, BUT NOT A WIN IN EVERY WAY.
CATCHING
UP IN THE DELEGATES, IT HELPS, BUT HE NEEDS TO TAKE A TON OF
THEM.
NEW YORK HAS TOO MANY BIG CITIES FOR SANDERS TO WIN BY A
LOT.
ONE OF THE NICE THINGS ABOUT MICHIGAN FOR HIM, THAT
PEOPLE DIDN'T REALLY TALK ABOUT VERY MUCH, IS THAT MICHIGAN IS
NOT MADE UP OF A TON OF VERY BIG CITIES.
ONE OF THEM, ANN ARBOR,
WHICH IS BIG BECAUSE THERE IS THE UNIVERSITY, THAT IS GIVEN TO
HIM TO DO WELL IN A PLACE LIKE THAT.
THEN THERE IS DETROIT
WHERE SHE DOES WELL.
PLACES THAT HAVE LOTS OF BIG CITIES ARE
DIFFICULT FOR BERNIE SANDERS TO WIN.
HE BENEFITS FROM HIS FUNDRAISING.
HE HAS A BAJILLION
DOLLARS.
THERE ARE THINGS IN NEW YORK --
HE IS JEWISH, HE IS LIBERAL IN THE LIBERAL STATE, HE IS
AGAINST WALL STREET EVEN THOUGH IT IS THERE, THAT IS ALSO
THE PLACE WHERE MOST PEOPLE ARE AGAINST WALL STREET.
IT IS A MIXED PICTURE.
IT IS.
BUT HE HAS TO DO WELL -- HE CAN'T GO IN WITH A NEW YORK
STRATEGY, HE IS NOT GOING TO WIN THE NOMINATION.
HE
CAN'T BE FULLY IN A NEW YORK STATE OF MIND, YOU ARE SAYING.
IT HAS TO BE MORE THAN NEW YORK.
CALIFORNIA, PERHAPS.
EVEN LARGER