NOW, B
ISAIAS UPDATE.
I'M CHIEF METEOROLOGIST
CRAIG SETZER.
WE HAVE NEW STATS AND
DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE 11:00
A.M.
ADVISORY.
WE TALKED ABOUT WHAT WAS GOING
ON WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE HURRICANE.
THAT MAY BE A SHIFT IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WHAT THE
IMPLICATIONS ARE AS FAR AS
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CONCERNED.
WHEN I SAY SOUTH FLORIDA, I
MEAN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.
I KNOW A LOT OF FOLKS IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY THINK OF
THEMSELVES AS SOUTH FLORIDA.
BUT REALLY I'M TALKING TO OUR
VIEWING AREA AND THE KEYS.
HERE'S THE 2:00 POSITION.
75 MILES AN HOUR WINDS MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST.
THE PRESIDENT BUSH HAS COME UP.
A SIGN THE STORM HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT.
THERE'S THE LOCATION AS OF
2:00.
IF YOU LOOK HERE, YOU CAN SEE
THE BIG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
NEAR THE CENTER THERE.
THAT HAD BEEN GOING ON MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
AND THE MORNING.
AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, THE
THING WE TRACK AND THE THING
THAT BASICALLY ANCHORS THE
STORM, THE HURRICANE, TOUCHED
LAND.
THOSE STORMS JUST COLLAPSED.
THEY BASICALLY JUS SHUT DOWN,
ONE THING THIS INDICATES IS IT
IS A FRAGILE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
NOT A ROBUST ONE.
AND, THE REASON IT APPEARS TO
BE FRAGILE IS BECAUSE IT HAS A
LOT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
BLOWING AGAINST IT.
AND ALSO, IT HAS DRY AIR
BLOWING AGAINST IT.
SO, UNLESS IT HAS THE SUPPORT
OF WARM OCEAN WATER UNDERNEATH
IT, IT JUST CAN'T MAINTAIN THE
BIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TOP OF
THAT LOW LEVEL CENTER.
THAT'S IMPORTANT.
BECAUSE WHEN IT DOESN'T HAVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER IT, IT
TENDS TO WEAKEN.
NOT QUICKLY, BUT IT TENDS TO
WEAKEN.
IT CAN'T MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE WILL BE
WATCHING AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IS ARE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO
REAPPEAR, AND IF THEY DO, THEN
WE WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY
TO LEVEL OFF.
IT IS JUST BARELY A HURRICANE
NOW.
I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON
UNLESS WE GET MORE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER IT.
INTO STRONG TROPICAL STORM
TERRITORY.
SO HERE IS THE LOOP.
IT'S A BAD FRAME AT THE END OF
THE LOOP.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE CAN SEE IS
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COLLAPSE, THE LOW LEVEL CENTER,
THE ANCHOR PART OF THE
HURRICANE GOT CAUGHT MORE IN
THESE SHALLOWER STEERING WINDS.
THE SHALLOWER WINDS ARE MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NOT AS MUCH
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
WHEN IT HAD THUNDERSTORMS, IT
WAS SENSING THE DEEPER STEERING
WINDS WHICH ARE MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.
SHALLOWER STEERING WINDS ARE
MORE TOWARD THE WEST,
NORTHWEST.
SO THERE WAS THE 11:00 A.M.
POSITION.
THAT WAS THE AVERAGE DIRECTION
OF TRAVEL ABOUT THE LAST SIX
HOURS OR SO.
IT HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY TO
THE NORTHWEST.
AND, THAT OBVIOUSLY IS NORTH
MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND
TOWARD THE PALM BEACHES.
NOW THAT IT LOST ITS
THUNDERSTORMS, IT HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE IN THAT SHALLOW
STEERING CURRENTS AND THERE'S
THE 2:00 P.M.
POSITION.
IF YOU CONNECT THESE TWO POINTS
HERE, IT GIVES US MORE OF A
STEERING DIRECTION.
MORE TOWARD THE WEST,
NORTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW, IT IS POINTED TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA.
MIAMI-DADE.
AND BROWARD.
THE QUESTION IS DOES THIS NEW
DIRECTION HOLD ON OR DOES IT
START TO WOBBLE A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH OR DOES IT GET
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESUME THAT
NORTHWEST DIRECTION UP HERE
ONCE AGAIN WHERE THE CENTER IS
MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH.
THESE ARE ANSWERS WE DON'T KNOW
TO THE QUESTIONS.
THIS IS KIND OF A TURN HERE
THAT WE SAW, WE CONSIDER AS A
POSSIBILITY.
BUT, WE WEREN'T CONFIDENT THAT
IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN IN TERMS
OF THIS TURN WITH THE COLLAPSE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
SO, WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DO THE
STORMS REDEVELOP.
DOES IT GET MUCH CLOSER TO
SOUTH FLORIDA?
I THINK IN THE END, IT WILL
KIND OF BE A WASH.
BECAUSE, A STRONGER STORM OR
HURRICANE UP HERE WOULD LIKELY
BRING THE SAME CONDITIONS AS A
WEAKENED, AND I SAY WEAKENED
AND NOT WEAKER, TROPICAL STORM
COMING RIGHT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA.
SO OUR PREPS BASICALLY ARE THE
SAME.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE TAKE AWAY
FROM THIS.
NOW, THIS DID SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS EARLIER AND YOU CAN SEE,
THERE IS WHERE IT WAS HEADED
EARLIER.
THE AVERAGE OF ALL OF THOSE
MEMBERS, THE WHITE ONES, WAS
BASICALLY ALONG THE DIRECTION
IT WAS HEADED.
AND THESE HERE WERE INDICATING
A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WOULD
TRACK FURTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA.
THESE INDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM
THAT WOULD TRACK CLOSER TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.
BASED ON OUR NEW POSITION HERE,
FOR THE MOMENT, THESE ARE IN
PLAY.
AM I PANICKED BY THIS?
FROM A METEOROLOGICAL POINT OF
VIEW IT IS FASCINATING AND FROM
A PREPARATION POINT OF VIEW, IT
DOESN'T CHANGE MY THINKING.
I'M PREPARING FOR A TROPICAL
STORM.
POWER OUTAGES, STRONG WINDS
BLOWING DOWN PALM BRANCHES.
THINGS ON THE ROAD MAKING
THINGS A MESS.
AND THE CONSIDERATION WHEN YOU
HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
IS FOR THINGS BLOWING AROUND SO
YOU WANT TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS AND STUFF LIKE THAT.
HERE COMES A PRETTY GOOD
SQUALL.
THIS WILL CONTAIN SOME WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MILES AN HOUR.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESECURE YOUR LOOSE OBJECTS
AND GET INSIDE.
THIS WILL PASS.
THEN ANOTHER ONE OF THESE BANDS
WILL ROTATE OUT AND COME OUR
WAY, TOO.
WE ARE NOW, BASICALLY, IN RADAR
RANGE.
WE WILL WATCH THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP VERY CLOSELY AS WE
GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OF COURSE, IF THERE IS ANYTHING
THAT IS SURPRISING TO ME, WE
WILL BREAK IN AND LET YOU KNOW.
I'LL LET YOU KNOW BECAUSE I'M
THE TYPE OF METEOROLOGIST THAT
JUST PUTS IT ALL ON THE TABLE.
I WANT YOU TO KNOW ALL THE
FACTS SO YOU KNOW WHAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH.
WHAT DOESN'T LOOK RIGHT.
WHAT LOOKS SUSPICIOUS.
NOT PANICKING.
WE ARE JUST PREPARING FOR A
TROPICAL STORM.
THAT'S WHAT WE ARE DOING.
WE WILL KEEP YOU UP TO DATE,
WITH ANY CHANGES AT ALL.
WE WILL CUT IN AND KEEP YOU UP
TO DATE.
WE WILL SEE YOU AGAIN AT 3:00
WITH ANOTHER UPDATE.
JUST LETTING EVERYBODY KNOW