Donald Trump got some of his loudest campaign cheers with a simple pledge to "get tough
on trade."
As the new Trump administration begins to take shape, the direction of his policies
will be heavily determined by the legacy of decades of global trade treaties, occasional
disputes and well-established international law.
Should Trump make good on his tough words on trade - basically increase protectionism
- what does that mean for export-dependent countries like Korea?
What should Asia's fourth-largest economy be doing to better prepare for what's to come?
Korea in the face of growing trade barriers?
Our news feature tonight with Kim Min-ji.
"We have a great economic plan.
We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world.
At the same time, we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us."
Exactly how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to fulfill his campaign pledges is not
yet known, but based on what he's said so far, it seems the world's largest economy
is likely to ride the wave of protectionism sweeping the globe.
Trump has promised to back out of or renegotiate free trade deals, referring to some as "disasters"
that have led to massive job losses and rising prices.
To start, Trump has said he will scrap the Trans Pacific Partnership deal within his
first 100 days in office.
The TPP, which involves the U.S., Japan and ten other Pacific Rim countries, accounts
for about 40 percent of the global economy.
It is the largest trade pact ever, representing more than a quarter of the world's trade volume
and a combined population of almost 800 million.
Korea had shown some interest in joining the mega trade pact, but now some are saying that
if the U.S. pulls out, even if other member countries do not, the deal will have lost
its significance.
"What's more important is the signal to be drawn from the U.S. withdrawal from the TPP
deal.
Many countries have looked at the deal with a lot of interest including Korea.
And TPP includes lots of new schemes to regulate international trading, new norms, fisheries,
subsidies -- there are many new norms advocated by the U.S."
If the deal collapses, some say the biggest beneficiary will be China.
Beijing is the key driver of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership -- a 16-nation
trade deal that includes ASEAN member states and regional trading partners like Japan and
Korea.
It would be the second largest trading bloc after the TPP, covering a market worth almost
22 trillion dollars.
"Now that the TPP has lost steam, there's no rush to ratify the RCEP.
At the same time, however, China may want to take this opportunity to create an economic
bloc within Asia, in which case it could gain momentum.
And if the U.S. leaves the TPP, Japan, which is part of both, could make a more active
push for RCEP."
Some experts think all of the uncertainty has bought Korea some time to weigh its options
before making its next move.
Initially, the TPP was expected to bring Korean products more competition, as member countries
agreed to fully open their manufacturing sectors to foreign goods.
The U.S. planned to scrap tariffs on Japanese electronic and mechanical products immediately,
whereas under the Korea-U.S. FTA, manufactured goods won't be tariff free until 2021.
"Even through Mr. Trump is against free trade agreements, I believe that he will see the
importance of free trade after he becomes the president, because U.S. has been prospering
because of free trade in the past, so there is a high possibility that Mr. Trump will
organize another brand new free trade agreement, including many Asian countries."
Another potential complication, however, is that the Korea-U.S. FTA could be subject to
renegotiation down the line, if Trump makes good on another of his campaign pledges.
Analysts say that Korea needs to re-assess issues that could be revisited on both sides.
Regardless of what happens with the U.S., Korea will need a new strategy, especially
given its slowing exports, which have been on a downward trend for almost two years.
"In Japan, for instance, key industries have been changing their products to more innovative
high-tech areas.
By focusing on intangible products and technology, Japan has been able to avoid intense competition
from Korea and China.
And now, with entry into the U.S. expected to become more difficult, it's important that
Korea foster newer industries to gain a competitive advantage."
Experts say Korea should engage in as many free trade deals as possible, not just to
open up more opportunities for itself, but to protect its export-driven economy.
Kim Min-ji, Arirang News.