Prudential. Bring your challenges.
>> Shepard: CONTINUING
COVERAGE OF FOX TOP STORY
REPORT FROM SOUTH KOREAN
NEWS AGENCY THAT THE
DICTATOR KIM JONG UN HAS
CANCELLED HIS MEETING WITH
THE SOUTH KOREANS AND IS
THREATENING TO CANCEL WHAT
WOULD BE AN HISTORIC SUMMIT
WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP.
THE REASON?
JOINT MILITARY DRILLS
BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES
AND SOUTH KOREA.
LET'S GET STRAIGHT TO
MICHAEL O'HANLON FROM THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION.
SENIOR FELLOW OF FOREIGN
POLICY THERE.
MICHAEL, IT'S NICE TO SEE
YOU.
>> GOOD TO SEE YOU, SHEPARD.
>> Shepard: THESE DRILLS
HAVE BEEN GOING ON FOREVER.
THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE
COMPLAINED ABOUT THEM
FOREVER.
SUDDENLY THEY ARE
COMPLAINING ABOUT THEM
AGAIN.
>> AS USUAL YOU GOT RIGHT TO
THE POINT.
THE IF YOU PLEASEY THING WAS
THOUGH THEY DIDN'T COMPLAIN
THEM B. THEM FOR A COUPLE
MONTHS.
IN FACT, WHEN THE SOUTH
KOREAN NATIONAL SECURITY
ADVISOR WENT TO NORTH KOREA
A FEW WEEKS AGO, IT WAS
REMARKABLE THAT HE CAME BACK
WITH THE NEWS THAT KIM JONG
UN DIDN'T MIND THE
EXERCISES, SUPPOSEDLY.
AND SAID THAT HE UNDERSTOOD
WHY THEY HAD TO HAPPEN,
WHICH, OF COURSE, IS WHAT WE
SAY AND WHAT WE FIRMLY
BELIEVE.
AS LONG AS THERE IS A
POWERFUL MILITARY THREAT
FROM NORTH KOREA, EVEN IF
THE ATMOSPHERICS ARE BETTER
THESE DAYS, WE HAVE TO THAT
I
TAKETHAT THREAT SERIOUSLY.
TWO BIG DRILLS FOR A YEAR
FOR A VERY LONG TIME.
IT LOOKED AS IF NORTH KOREA
WASN'T GOING TO CARE.
THAT WAS GOING TO BE
APPARENTLY A CONCESSION.
MAYBE THEY ARE STARTING TO
RETHINK THEIR TACTICS, MAYBE
THEY FEEL LIKE THEY ARE
GIVING AWAY TOO MANY
CONCESSIONS FOR FREE BEFORE
A NEGOTIATION OR MAYBE KIM
JONG UN IS LOOKING FOR AN
EXCUSE TO GET OUT OF THE
SUMMIT ALL TOGETHER BECAUSE
HE DECIDES HE DOESN'T LIKE
THE PATH THAT HE IS HEADED
ON TOWARDS DENUCLEARIZATION.
THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF
POSSIBILITIES.
>> Shepard: WHO SAYS HE IS
HEADED TOWARDS
DENUCLEARIZATION.
ONLY HE SAYS THAT.
HE HAS ALREADY GOTTEN A LOT
HERE, HASN'T HE?
>> WELL, HE HAS GOTTEN A LOT
OF DIPLOMATIC ATTENTION.
>> Shepard: THAT'S WHAT I
MEANT.
>> I BELIEVE THE CHINESE HAS
LIGHTENED UP IN SOME OF
THEIR ENFORCEMENT OF
SANCTIONS.
THEY ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO, BY
THE WAY BUT THEY HAVE.
OTHERWISE HE HASN'T GOTTEN
MUCH CONCRETE OR TANGIBLE
NOW YET.
HE HAS GOTTEN PROMISE OF
POTENTIAL DOWN THE ROAD IF
HE WHEN HE GIVES UP NUKES.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS
HOLDING UP THE LINE THE
BENEFITS WON'T FLOW UNTIL
ALL THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE
OUT.
I UNDERSTAND WHY PRESIDENT
TRUMP WOULD BEGIN WITH THAT
GOING IN POSITION.
I DON'T THINK IT'S REALISTIC
THOUGH AS A WAY TO GET
THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS.
SO MAYBE WHAT WE ARE SEEING
NOW IS KIM JONG UN STARTING
TO NEGOTIATE BACK BEFORE THE
TALKS EVEN BEGIN FACE TO
FACE.
>> Shepard: WHAT DOES
HISTORY TELL US ABOUT WHERE
WE ARE RIGHT NOW?
IT'S NOT AS IF WE HAVEN'T
REACHED THIS POINT OR
SOMETHING SIMILAR IN RECENT
YEARS.
>> RIGHT.
WELL, THERE HAVE BEEN A
NUMBER OF SUMMITS WITH NORTH
KOREA.
OF COURSE, THE PACE OF THESE
RECENT MEETINGS WITH
SECRETARY POMPEO AND
PRESIDENT MOON OF SOUTH
KOREA AND OTHERS HAS REALLY
INCREDIBLY INTENSIFIED AND
THE PROMISE OF A SUMMIT WITH
A U.S. PRESIDENT IS A
FIRST-TIME THING,
UNPRECEDENTED IN RELATIONS
WITH NORTH KOREA.
BUT, WE HAVE HAD PREVIOUS
PERIODS, SO-CALLED SUNSHINE
POLICY OF ABOUT 18 OR 20
YEARS AGO AND SOUTH KOREA
REALLY TRIED TO BE WARM
TOWARDS THE NORTH WHEN KIM
JONG UN'S FATHER WAS IN
POWER THERE.
AND THAT DIDN'T WORK OUT.
YOU KNOW, THE SOUTH KOREANS
CHANGED PRESIDENTS.
KIM JUDGE ILL BEHAVED MUCH
WORSE.
HE BROKE OUT OF A NUCLEAR
AGREEMENT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO
AT THAT TIME.
STATE OF BELLIGERENCE.
THAT'S THE KIND OF THING
THAT'S HAPPENED IN THE PAST.
>> Shepard: I WANT TO READ
SOMETHING WE HAVE JUST
GOTTEN.
THIS EXERCISE TARGETING US,
SAYS THE NORTH KOREANS,
WHICH IS BEING CARRIED OUT
ACROSS SOUTH KOREA, IS A
FLAGRANT CHALLENGE TO PAN
MOON JOM AND DECLARATION
RUNNING COUNTER TO THE
POSITIVE POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENT ON THE KOREAN
PENINSULA.
AGAIN, THAT FROM THIS REPORT
THAT HAS JUST COME OUT.
QUOTING AGAIN, THE UNITED
STATES WILL ALSO HAVE TO
UNDERTAKE CAREFULLY
DELIBERATIONS ABOUT THE FATE
OF THE PLANNED NORTH
KOREA-U.S. SUMMIT IN LIGHT
OF THIS PROVOCATIVE MILITARY
WITH THE SOUTH KOREAN
AUTHORITIES.
NOW, THAT SUDDENLY AND
FINALLY SOUNDS LIKE NORTH
KOREA AGAIN.
>> YEAH.
ALL THOUGH THE WORD RUCKUS
IS PRETTY MILD BY THEIR
STANDARD.
>> Shepard: IT.
>> USUALLY FIND MUCH MORE
COLORFUL LANGUAGE.
POINT WELL-TAKEN.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF BUYER'S
REMORSE.
THE NORTH KOREAS AREN'T
COMFORT WBLE DETAUNT WHEN IT
HINGES ON THEM GIVING UP
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THEIR
ENTIRETY REALLY FAST.
I SEE THIS AS A EMPLOYEE
I SEE THIS AS P EMPLOYEE
I SEE THIS AS PLOMPLOYEE
I SEE THIS AS PLOYPLOYEE
I SEE THIS AS PLOY AOYEE
I SEE THIS AS PLOY ASYEE
I SEE THIS AS PLOY AS AE
NEGOTIATION PROCESS.
I DON'T BELIEVE THEY WANT
THE SUMMIT TO BE CANCELLED,
AT LEAST NOT YET.
THEY ARE TRYING TO SAY WE
ARE NOT GOING TO
ARE NOT GOING AO
ARE NOT GOING AS EASY AS
FIRST SEEN.
THEY HAVE THEN ABOUT THIS
UPCOMING EXERCISE
PHOTOGRAPHER AS YOU POINTED
OUT, SHEPARD, THEY EVEN SAID
THEY DIDN'T CARE.
IF THEY ARE NOW GOING BACK
TO AN EARLIER COMPLAINT,
IT'S BECAUSE THEY ARE TRYING
TO USE IT FOR A PURPOSE.
EITHER AS A NEGOTIATING CARD
OR BECAUSE THEY'RE JUST
NERVOUS ABOUT THE ENTIRE
PROCESS OF DETENTE AND THEY
WANT IT TO STOP AND JUST GO
BACK TO WHERE WE WERE LAST
YEAR WHICH I WOULD REGRET
BUT IT WOULD BE TYPICAL OF
WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE PAST.
>> Shepard: THE NORTH
KOREANS HAVE NOW GIVEN THE
UNITED STATES ADMINISTRATION
AN INSTRUCTION.
HOW MIGHT OUR ADMINISTRATION
RESPOND IN SUCH A WAY THAT
IT SERVES OUR INTERESTS?
>> WELL, WE HAVE TO KEEP
DOING MILITARY EXERCISES IN
SOUTH KOREA, AS YOU WELL
KNOW, SHEPARD, AND AS ANY
MILITARY OFFICER IN THE
UNITED STATES WILL INSIST
UPON.
I HAVE DONE SOME WRITING
OVER THE YEARS IN WHICH I
HAVE SUGGESTED WITH A
COLLEAGUE HERE THAT WE COULD
PERHAPS SCALE THEM BACK IN
SIZE.
THAT THE SIZE.
EXERCISES IS NOT CRUCIAL TO
MILITARY READINESS.
IF IT REALLY GIVES NORTH
KOREANS SOME ANXIETY, WE
COULD FIND A WAY TO BREAK
THE EXERCISES UP INTO
SMALLER PIECES.
I THINK THAT'S MOST WE COULD
CONSIDER DOING.
IF THAT'S GOOD ENOUGH FOR
THEM, I WOULD ENCOURAGE THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO
THINK THINGS THROUGH IN
THOSE TERMS.