Tesla have released the new features of what we will expect in the Model 3 Project Highland.
The first major facelift we have ever seen for the worlds best selling electric car.
We have seen various Model 3s undercover driving around, spotted by enthusiasts.
From these photos I had concluded that was just going to a minor facelift, and we will
not see any major manufacturing advances on the new Model 3, such as structural battery
packs, or giga castings.
After what happened with the Model S and X facelifts, and how much downtime we saw there,
Tesla do not want to risk that, or lose minimal downtime for the Model 3.
Of course we know there is always that potential of cost savings for the Model 3 one day, but
it might sacrifice progress in other areas like gen 3, not to mention put Model 3 production
at risk if unknown complications arose during such a massive upgrade.
I would say with the Highland upgrade Tesla are likely to do the most they can, with as
minimal downtime as possible.
It may be a month or so of downtime.
I would have thought unlikely any longer than a couple of months.
Many critics are saying that the Model 3 is looking dated after 6 years, and sales do
appear to be dwindling slightly, but that could be due to the economy, as much as potential
competitors.
But what competition does the Model 3 really even have, the Polestar 2?
Not as nice, and costs more.
When you think about it, there are still very few legacy EV sedans even.
Then we have the Chinese, that are trying to release more models, that look different
with the latest designs.
But the quality lacks.
So the Model 3 actually has very little direct competition.
A lot of the legacy autos have taken the SUV or cross-over market for EVs, as its much
bigger, and more profitable.
Anyway, soon we will have a refreshed Model 3, which we think Tesla is expecting to bounce
back demand, to what extent we will have to find out.
Tesla are not making any waste of this opportunity, and will do what they can to reduce costs,
parts and processes with this update.
On top that, it's pretty obvious that Tesla will update this car for Hardware 4.
As we were told on Q4 earnings, to a lot of people's disappointment, Teslas Hardware 4
will not be compatible with older models.
Hardware 4 is Teslas way of adjusting the hardware to be more compatible around what
Tesla have discovered is the best path forward with FSD.
Tesla are acknowledging that items like more cameras are going to help in solving FSD.
Some people think that FSD cant be solved without hardware 4 even.
Look as shareholders it doesn't matter if it can or can't, even if HW4 is the only way
to solve FSD, its still obviously going to be a massive enough break through to send
the stock flying.
Even if Tesla had to payout all HW3 customers who ordered FSD.
That would be pennies, compared to what FSD brings.
And now we are hearing the specifics of this update, one being a new camera in the newly
designed bumper.
This sounds like it might remove a lot of so-called issues with FSD that people have
been facing.
Obviously it is much easier for the car to see what is directly in front of it, and when
pulling out of intersections the car can see without having to pull out so far.
I was saying that cameras like this would make sense for the Robotaxi designed vehicle,
but these hardware 4 adjustments may be sufficient enough.
Along with Tesla Vision Park Assist, which supposedly means that Tesla are now able to
measure distances without ultra sonic sensors.
And allows a birdseye view, something a lot of competitors have offered, that Tesla has
not.
This sounds almost unbelievable, and was the reason we were hearing that Tesla have been
removing the ultra sonic sensors.
However, the software was not functioning properly at the time.
If it is actually able to measure distances though, that sounds incredibly impressive,
and is another way of how Tesla can use technology to reduce costs, and improve manufacturing.
Perhaps saving around an extra couple of hundred dollars per vehicle without sensors.
There are actually two new cameras on the sides of the vehicle too.
My theory is that these cameras will be higher up, in order to see over things better, and
get a clearer picture.
These cameras are also now supposedly 5 megapixel with anti-glare, compared to the current 1.2
megapixels in Hardware 3.
That is quite the upgrade.
But think what it does for FSD, the ability to see that much more clearly, and obviously
see further distances too.
And the new hardware can handle the higher definition video too, even with more cameras.
Perhaps that was somewhat of a limiting factor for Hardware 3, it wasn't going to be able
to process higher resolution, and this alone might achieve a big jump in FSD.
I think with version 11 and Hardware 4, we are likely going to see some good progress
on FSD this year.
This is also why I think the new gen 3 vehicle, will also be more designed around FSD, or
Robotaxing, in order to increase the rate at which it can be solved, and improve.
A lighter smaller car, with mechanical braking will be able to stop much faster which is
ideal for a Robotaxi.
We have also heard rumors of a similar update coming for the Model Y, this update is code
named Juniper.
If this is what is required to use Hardware 4, then I would now think that a Model Y update
is very likely to arrive sometime after this Model 3 update.
The Model 3 update is meant to occur in Q3, so the Model Y may be Q4 or perhaps early
2024.
And I would expect it to just be a very similar update to the Model 3 Highland update.
Except of course there are twice as many factories to shut down.
The Model 3headlights are going to be redesigned.
Maybe they'll look a bit more a Tesla Roadster.
I think any facelift on a Model 3, will be a big deal, and could change the look of the
car a lot.
The most dated features you get in a car, tend to be headlights, and accompanied with
a smoother front and new bumper, its possible to create quite a new look.
And again similar for the rear lights and bumper too.
The side mirrors also have a minor update.
Which will all help give the exterior a noticeable facelift.
However, there was also an interiro facelift, the woodtrim is now replaced with fabric finish,
there will be a dash facelift, and a focus on cost cutting.
I guess now the Model 3 is a lower cost vehicle, it doesn't need to offer as high a quality
parts.
Perhaps the gear stick will also be removed like on the Model S and X.
Tesla removed the temperature sensor too, and instead will use GPS location for weather
data.
Along with improvements to the GPS itself, which will enable a more accurate location
of the vehicle.
But with an interior and exterior update, I would say there will be some new demand
for this vehicle.
It may give existing Model 3 owners a reason to finally get a new car.
I am looking forward to seeing a new design for Tesla, and seeing what direction they
are moving.
I don't think we will see any major updates for Model 3 after this any time soon.
I know there were some rumors that perhaps Model 3 will eventually be produced in Berlin
too, and use structural battery packs, but I don't think that will happen.
I think as far as Model 3 is concerned, this Highland update will be it for sometime.
Possibly they may eventually get into gen 3 production for Model 3, but I don't think
so.
Probably not this decade.
They may just do the occasional facelift like this, or regular minor ones.
But I think the main reason for these updates, is not for look and feel, but to add in Hardware
4, and use it as an excuse to do some updates while they're at it, and find some ways of
reducing cost some more too.
I don't even think Tesla will really ramp up Model 3 production much more than what
they have currently.
No more Model 3 factories, or use 4680 cells.
Just leave that pretty much as it is.
Tesla are looking forward to their future vehicles, that will sell in much bigger numbers.
Tesla are not looking in the rear view mirror.
Just for the same reason they are not going to re-make Model S and X with 4680 structural
battery packs.
From here on in, when it comes to cars, its likely all about making cars that have the
best chance of self driving, and are scalable to the masses, on cost, supplies, and manufacturing
capabilities.
Tesla want models that sell in the millions and millions, they dont want to waste resources
on fine-tuning older models that don't sell as much.
Tesla know where the real money is.
Hence why Elon is so focused on Tesla sorting out FSD.
Even if it means the vehicles will need a few more cameras to achieve it.
This will just be a nice facelift to keep the Model 3 still looking current, despite
it still having the most advanced technology compared to all other manufacturers.