I'M DAVID ASMAN.
JOINING ME, SUSAN LI, CAROL
ROTH, JOHN RAYFIELD WITH GLOBAL
GROWTH FEARS AND UNCERTAINTY
OVER CHINA TRADE DEAL FLAMING
THOUGHTS TODAY.
THE DOW PLUMMETING 300 POINTS ON
NEWS THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PURSE YOU THE
EXTRADITION OF HUAWEI CEO IF
SHE'S NOT RELEASED.
MANY BELIEVE THE REPORT LAST
WEEK THAT CHINA DEAL WAS
IMMINENT.
IF YOU ARE WATCHING "BULLS &
BEARS" ON FRIDAY, YOU ALREADY
KNOW THE ADMINISTRATION WAS
DISCOUNTING THOSE REPORTS.
ROLL TAPE.
>> NOTHING HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
NO CONTRACT.
I WANT TO BE AN OPTIMIST ABOUT
CHINA TRADE.
THE PRESIDENT HAS INDICATED A
CERTAIN AMOUNT OF OPTIMISM ABOUT
CHINA TRADE.
COMMUNICATING WITH CHINESE
PRESIDENT XI.
SOME OF THESE NEWS REPORTS ARE
SIMPLY INACCURATE.
DAVID: ARE WE EVER GOING TO MAKE
A TRADE DEAL IN CHINA?
>> I'M OPTIMISTIC THAT WE HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GET THERE.
IT SEEMS LIKE REPORTS ARE SAYING
THEY NEED TO MOVE ON STRUCTURAL
ISSUES LIKE INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY PROTECTION AND TRANSFER
OF TECHNOLOGY.
SOMETHING CHINA MIGHT MASSAGE
INTO THIS MARCH 1st DEADLINE.
CHENEY'S APPEAL AS WE SAW WITH
THE GD REPORT AND THE CHINA
GROWTH FIGURES AS MUCH WORSE ARE
THE SIX BY BY 6% IS WHAT THE
HEADLINE NUMBERS THAT AND MY
FEELING IS A BIG OVERHANG OF
DEBT AND EXPORTS ARE CRUNCHING
INTO THE ECONOMY DOWN ABOUT 8%
ACCORDING TO "THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL" IN 2018.
>> I AGREE WITH SUSAN.
RIGHT NOW THE TRADE WARS NOT
HAVE BEEN AS MUCH DIRECT EFFECT
ON THE ECONOMY AS THE CONSUMER
SENTIMENT DOES.
CHINA HAS GONE FROM AN EXPORT
ECONOMY TO A CONSUMER DRIVEN
ECONOMY IN THE TRANSITION HAS
BEEN DONE BY A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF
DEBT WHICH PRESIDENT XI STARTED
PULLING BACK A COUPLE YEARS AGO.
MORE REASON FOR THE ECONOMY
SUFFERING RIGHT NOW.
THE EXPORTS ONLY ACCOUNT FOR 9%
OF THE TOTAL ECONOMY AND THEY
ARE AFFECTED BY THESE
TERRORISTS.
WE HAVE A CONSUMER DRIVEN
ECONOMY AS CHINA IS HAVING THEN
YOU HAVE CONSUMER SENTIMENT
BECAUSE OF THESE TRADE TARIFFS.
THAT'S WHEN YOU SEE THE ECONOMY
BACK OFF.
NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT EFFECT
ON IT, BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT YOU
SEE WITH CAP EXPLAINED THAT AS A
CONSUMER SENTIMENT.
>> I WAS GOING TO SAY I THINK
THE TRADE IS THE BIGGEST
PREVENTABLE HAD WENT TO THE
MARKET RIGHT NOW AND I THINK THE
PRESIDENT IS VERY FOCUSED ON
NOT.
FROM A TIMELINE CRUNCH I THINK
EVEN NOWHERE IN A STRONGER
POSITION OVERALL FROM A TIMELINE
STANDPOINT I THINK WERE IN A
WEAKER POSITION THAN I THINK WE
WILL GET SOMETHING LIKE SUSAN
SAID A PARTIAL DEAL BY MARCH BUT
I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO
ADDRESS ALL OF THE BROAD THINGS
THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED HERE
POTENTIALLY MAKE IT SOMETHING
BROKEN UP INTO PIECES VERY GET
PART OF IT DONE RIGHT AWAY.
>> I DON'T SEE A COMPREHENSIVE
TRADE DEAL.
WE MAY SEE WITH RESPECT TO
CHINA'S FOLLOWING ANOTHER
PRESIDENT PUT OUT A TWEET TODAY
THAT HE WAS PROUD OF CHINA
SLOWING.
NO ONE SHOULD FEEL GOOD ABOUT
CHINA SLOWING BECAUSE WE'RE NOW
IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
CHINA SLOWING, EUROPE, GERMANY,
FRANCE AND THE U.K. EVENTUALLY
IMPACTS US FLOWING.
EVEN THOUGH WERE THE LARGEST
ECONOMY, WE NOW LIVE IN A GLOBAL
ECONOMY.
THIS WHOLE IDEA OF THE SLOWNESS
GOING ON WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACTS
US KNOW WHICH IS WHY A LOT OF
ECONOMISTS ARE CALLING SECOND
HALF OF THE YEAR EARLY INTO NEXT
YEAR GOING INTO RECESSION.
I DON'T BELIEVE FOR GOING INTO
ONE, THAT YOU HAVE AT LEAST HALF
OF THEM THINKING THAT NOW.
>> NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT THE
FACT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I
REMEMBER THE CHINESE
SPECIFICALLY LINKING THE ARREST
OF THIS HUAWEI CEO WITH TRADE
TALKS.
THE FACT THAT IT WAS MADE
EXPLICIT, DOES THAT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANCE?
>> FIRST OF ALL I'M SKEPTICAL
ABOUT THESE REPORTS BECAUSE I
DON'T THINK THEY WANT TO MAKE
THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO.
HUAWEI IS A PRIVATE COMPANY.
YOU DON'T WANT TO LINK IT TO HIS
DATE ACTIONS, SO I WOULD BE
HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE HEADLINE
WORTH READING RIGHT NOW.
>> WE'VE SPOKEN ON THIS OFTEN.
HUAWEI HAS BEEN ON THE RADAR OF
THE UNITED DATES FOR YEARS UNDER
PRESIDENT OBAMA THEY DID NOT
ALLOW HUAWEI TO MOVE ANYWHERE
NEAR A MILITARY BASE.
SO NOW, YOU KNOW, IF THE CHINESE
GOVERNMENT, YOU DO THIS WITH A
PRIVATE CITIZEN AND THIS WILL
UNWIND HOW WE LOOK AT OUR
SOVEREIGN RELATIONSHIP.
THAT GOES TO THE WHOLE IDEA THAT
HUAWEI IS A STATE RUN COMPANY.
I AGREE WITH SUSAN.
I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S FACT OR
FICTION, BUT IT DOESN'T BODE
WELL FOR WHERE THEY WANT TO GO.
>> I COMPLETELY AGREE.
[INAUDIBLE]
>> AND ALSO UNDERPINS THE WAY WE
ADDRESS INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY.
YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND EVEN IF
CHINA GETS A DEAL, IT WILL TAKE
THEM A LONG TIME TO HAVE
BACKGROUND THROUGH THE WAY THE
CHINESE DO BUSINESS.
THEY ARE USED TO DOING BUSINESS
NOT BY INNOVATING, BUT BY
KNOCKING OTHER PEOPLE OFF.
THIS IS NOT JUST THE TECH ARE.
THIS IS IN THE CONSUMER SECTOR.
A COMPLETE SHIFT IN THEIR
MINDSET IN THE WAY THE CHINESE
TO BUSINESS.
EVEN IF THEY WERE TO AGREE TO
SOMETHING, IT WILL TAKE A LONG
TIME FOR THAT TO CYCLE THROUGH
THEIR BUSINESSES AS WELL.
>> I THINK CHINA IS JUST PLAYING
THE GAME.
CHINA IS USING THIS HUAWEI OF
NEGATIVE TO GET AND POLITICAL
FAVOR ON THEIR SIDE.
THEY ARE PLAYING THE U.S.A. AND
THEY OFFERED THE SAME DEAL BY IN
ABOUT TRILLION DOLLARS CLOSING
THE TRADE DEFICIT THAT THEY
OFFERED IN DECEMBER WHEN
PRESIDENT XI AND PRESIDENT TRUMP
MATCH IN BUENOS AIRES.
THEY ARE KILLING THE CLOCK.
THEY LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES
AND WHAT THEY SEE RIGHT OR WRONG
IS A DIVIDED COUNTRY, GOVERNMENT
SHUTDOWN.
THE HOUSE THAT WENT REPUBLICAN.
THEY THINK THAT THEY CAN THEY
LONGER THAN THE U.S. CAN.
CHINA THINKS THEY'RE NEGOTIATING
STRENGTH I DON'T SEE A TRADE
DEAL.
I HOPE WE HAVE ONE BUT I DON'T
SEE IT.
>> TWO CANADIAN CITIZENS NOW IN
THE MIX AS WELL.
THEY'VE ARRESTED TWO CANADIANS.
THEY SPECIFICALLY CALLED OUT
MAYBE THEY'RE NOT SPECIFICALLY
CALLING OUT THE U.S., BUT THEY
HAVE SPECIFICALLY CALLED OUT THE
CANADIANS WERE THE ARREST OF THE
HUAWEI CEO.
IS THERE GOING TO BE A TRADE
GOING ON HERE?
>> THE EXTRADITION OF THE HUAWEI
CEO AND THEY ARE CRITICIZING THE
NAMES OF THE CANADIANS IN CHINA
RIGHT NOW.
THEY'RE IN A TOUGH POSITION
RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE TRYING TO APPEASE THEIR
LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, WHICH
IS THE UNITED STATES AND ALSO
THEIR SIXTH LARGEST TRADING
PARTNER WHICH IS CHINA AS WELL.
DAVID: HOW'S IT GOING TO END?
>> YET TO PLAY THE MIDDLE AND
SAY JUSTICE IS JUSTICE IN THIS
IS A DIPLOMATIC AFFAIR.
>> THE ONE THING WE KNOW IS WE
DON'T KNOW.
WE'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE
CHINA-U.S. SITUATION FOREVER AND
NOTHING IS MOVED.
WE STILL HAVE THE INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY PROBLEMS.
WE STILL HAVE TRADE IMBALANCES.
>> TO TALK ABOUT BUYING A
TRILLION GOODS.
NOTHING REALLY CHANGES
STRUCTURALLY.
DOES THAT APPEASE THEM AND SAY
WE DON'T HAVE TO MAKE THOSE
LONG-TERM CHANGES?
>> THE BEST THING THAT CAN
HAPPEN IF WE DON'T GET THE TRADE
DEALS WE WANT TO SAY ANIMAL CARE
SITUATION.
I THINK AS JOHN WAS MENTIONING
BEFORE, YOU HAVE CHINA CONSUMER
DIFFERENT COUNTRY.
THE U.S. CONSUMER DRIVEN COUNTRY
AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY SHOW AN
INCREDIBLE SLOWDOWN IN CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE TARIFFS ARE
HITTING BOTH SIDES.
>> THE THING I LOVE ABOUT WHAT
HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THIS IS A
SORE SPOT NOT ONLY FOR ME BUT I
KNOW FOR LARRY KUDLOW AS WELL.
THE ARBITRARY TRADE STATS AND I
THINK JOHN YOO SAID UPON THIS AS
WELL BUT SOMEHOW BY SUGGESTING
IF WE HAVE AN ABSOLUTELY EQUAL
BALANCE BETWEEN WHAT WE GET FROM
CHINA AND WILL BE SENT TO CHINA
EVERYTHING IS HUNKY-DORY.