BORDER.
BRANDIS?
>> AND AS WE MENTIONED AN
IMMINENT LARGE SCALE INVASION OF
UKRAINE COULD BE IN THE WORKS BY
MASSED RUSSIAN FORCES AS RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN ORDERS
TROOPS INTO TWO SEPARATIST
ENCLAVES IN EASTERN UKRAINE
WHILE RECOGNIZING THE
INDEPENDENCE OF THOSE REGIONS.
HERE TO HELP US UNPACK THE
DEVELOPMENTS ARE JULIAN HAYDA, A
UKRAINIAN AMERICAN JOURNALIST
WHO HAS RESIDENCY IN UKRAINE AND
JOINING US FROM LONDON AFTER HE
WAS NOT ABLE TO GO TO UKRAINE
DUE TO SECURITY CONCERNS.
SEE SEAL SHAY ON SECURITY AND
DIPLOMACY ON THE CHICAGO COUNCIL
OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS.
IAN KELLY.
KELLY WAS FORMERLY THE U.S.
AMBASSADOR TO GEORGIA AND PRIOR
TO THAT THE U.S. AMBASSADOR TO
THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY
AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE.
AND JOHN MIEUX SHIMMER.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
AND IAN KELLY LET'S START WITH
YOU, U.S. OFFICIALS WARNED THAT
RUSSIA COULD INVADE AS SOON AS
TODAY.
WHERE DO THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW
TONIGHT?
>> TODAY WAS A VERY DRAMATIC
DAY.
IT SEEMS THAT MINUTE BY MINUTE
THERE WERE BIG DEVELOPMENTS BIG
ANNOUNCEMENTS.
AND THE --
I THINK WHAT REALLY MADE THINGS
DIFFERENT TODAY OF COURSE WAS
THE RECOGNITION OF THE TWO
REGIONS AS INDEPENDENT.
AND THE DECISION OF PUTIN TO
SEND IN WHAT HE SAYS ARE
PEACEKEEPING FORCES INTO THESE
REGIONS WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A
VIOLATION OF UKRAINE'S
SOVEREIGNTY BY CROSSING THAT
BORDER.
SO EVERYBODY IS WONDERING IF
THIS MEANS THE BEGINNING OF A
WIDER WAR.
AND WE DON'T KNOW.
I THINK WE --
IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY GIVEN
PUTIN SPEECH TODAY BUT WE DON'T
KNOW HOW BROAD THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE.
>> REMIND US WHAT IS THE MAIN
ISSUE HERE?
WHY IS PRESIDENT PUTIN DOING
THIS?
>> WHY IS HE DOING IT AND WHAT
IS THE MAIN ISSUE ARE TWO
DIFFERENT QUESTIONS.
BUT THEY ARE RELATED.
WHY IS HE DOING IT?
IT'S DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN A LOT
OF PRESIDENT PUTIN'S BEHAVIOR.
HE IS MORE OF A TACK PARTICULARS
THAN A STRATEGIST HE DOES THINGS
OFTEN BECAUSE HE CAN.
IN SINCE 2014 HE WAGED A
COMBINATION OF A PROXY WAR AND
OTHER PRESSURE RUSSIA WENT INTO
THE CRIMEA AND ANNEXED CRIMEA A
PART OF THE UKRAINE.
OLD HABITS DIEHARD.
AND THERE HAS BEEN A LOW LEVEL
CONFLICTS IN EASTERN UKRAINE
SINCE 2014 LEADING TO THOUSANDS
OF UKRAINIAN DEATHS.
THERE'S BEEN A CONFLICT GOING ON
FOR QUITE SOMETIME.
AND FOR WHATEVER COMBINATION OF
REASONS PUTIN HAS DECIDED THAT
HE WANTS TO UP THE ANTE, MOVE
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS
TO THE BORDER, THE
UKRAINE-BELARUS BORDER AND
ACCORDING TO THE U.S.
ADMINISTRATION AND MANY OTHER
COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD IS
PREPARED TO INVADE ALL OF THE
UKRAINE.
AND THAT IS THE QUESTION NOW IS
WILL HE GO TO KYIV?
HE CLAIMS THAT TWO THINGS; ONE
IS THE SECTION OF EASTERN
UKRAINE WHERE HE HAS IN SECRET
BEEN FIGHTING A PROXY WAR FOR A
NUMBER OF YEARS AND NOW TODAY
HAS COME OUT PUBLICLY AND SAID
THAT RUSSIA IS GOING TO BE
INVOLVED IN EASTERN UKRAINE.
HE CLAIMS THAT HE IS PROTECTING
RUSSIANS LIVING IN UKRAINE.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT
RUSSIANS WERE IN ANYWAY
ENDANGERED IN THAT SECTION.
AND MORE RECENTLY HE BUILT A
MYTHOLOGY OF RUSSIA'S CLAIMS TO
UKRAINE THAT UKRAINE OWES ITS
SIFT TENSE TO RUSSIAN THEY ARE
ONE COUNTRY AND ONE LANGUAGE AND
NO UKRAINIAN IS GOING TO AGREE
WITH THAT.
UKRAINIANS MOVED FURTHER AWAY
FROM RUSSIA OVER THE LAST YEAR
THAN THEY ALREADY WERE.
>> 00 AS WE'VE MENTIONED PUTIN
ORDERED TROOPS INTO THE TWO
SEPARATIST ENCLAVES SIGNING
DECREES RECOGNIZING THE
INDEPENDENCE OF THOSE BREAK AWAY
REGIONS.
JOHN, COULD THIS MAKE AN
INVASION ALL THE MORE LIKELY?
>> I DON'T THINK SO.
I MEAN IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT CALCULATIONS ARE
THAT ARE GOING THROUGH HIS HEAD.
WE CAN ONLY SURMISE WHAT HE IS
LIKELY TO DO.
BOTH INVADE UKRAINE AND THERE
ARE [AUDIO INTERRUPTION] ONE IS
THE COSTS WOULD BE ENORMOUS.
FIRST OF ALL ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
WOULD AUTOMATICALLY BE PUT ON
RUSSIA AND THAT WOULD DAMAGE THE
RUSSIAN ECONOMY.
FURTHERMORE, OCCUPYING UKRAINE
WOULD NOT BE EASY.
THE RUSSIANS KNOW AND WE KNOW
FROM OCCUPYING PLACES LIKE
AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ THIS IS A
TERRIBLY DIFFICULT TASK.
THERE'S ALMOST ALWAYS
RESISTANCE.
YOU WANT TO REMEMBER WHEN THE
RUSSIANS OCCUPIED EASTERN EUROPE
THE SOVIETS OCCUPIED EASTERN
EUROPE THEY HAD PROBLEMS THEY
HAD TO INVADE HUNGARY IN 56 AND
CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN 68.
THE COSTS ARE GREAT AND HE THINK
HE DOESN'T NEED TO INVADE TO
ACCOMPLISH HIS GOALS.
HE'S GETTING THE ATTENTION THAT
HE WANTED.
THE WORLD IS FOCUSED ON WHAT HE
WANTS.
HE'S MADE IT CLEAR THAT UKRAINE
IS NOT GOING TO BECOME PART OF
NATO.
AND AT THIS POINT IT'S ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE HOW UKRAINE
WILL BE PART OF NATO.
AND I BELIEVE THAT HE IS SEW
SOWING DIVISIONS IN THE WEST
THAT WILL MANIFEST THEMSELVES
OVER TIME.
IF HE IS SMART HE WILL SIT BACK
AND CONTINUE TO PULL THE LEVERS
AS HE HAS BEEN DOING AND HE WILL
DRIVE US INTO A LATHER AND CAUSE
US ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS.
IN THE END HE WILL GET WHAT HE
WANTS BECAUSE UKRAINE IS NOT
GOING TO BECOME PART OF NATO.
>> WHAT ARE UKRAINIANS FEELING
RIGHT NOW?
DO THEY THINK A RUSSIAN INVASION
IS LIKELY?
>> WELL, UKRAINIANS ARE QUICK TO
REMIND ANYBODY WHO ASKS IF AN
INVASION IS LIKELY UKRAINE HAS
BEEN IN THE STATE OF WAR FOR THE
LAST EIGHT YEARS SINCE 2014.
WILL THERE BE AN INVASION?
IF YOU LOOK AT REPORTS FROM
VOIROUS INDEPENDENT BODIES AND
DIGITAL JOURNALISTS, THERE HAVE
BEEN RUSSIAN FORCES NOT ONLY IN
CRIMEA BUT IN THE OCCUPIED
EASTERN REGIONS ALREADY.
TO SEND TROOPS THERE IS AN
INVASION BECAUSE THE
INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZE THE
BORDERS OF UKRAINE INCLUDE THE
AREAS.
UKRAINIAN WANTS PEACE.
THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
ZELENSKY GAVE AN ADDRESS TO THE
NATION AN HOUR AGO.
HE SAID AND THIS IS A DIRECT
QUOTE, THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING WAR FOR THE LAST
EIGHT YEARS CANNOT SAY IT STANDS
FOR PEACE WHICH IS, OF COURSE,
WHAT RUSSIA IS SAYING.
RUSSIA SAYING IT'S PROTECTING
ITS OWN INTERESTS IN THE NAME OF
PEACE.
BUT THE REALITY JUST DOESN'T
PLAY THAT OUT.
AND REGARDING THE QUESTION OF
NATO DID UKRAINE INVITE THIS,
FRANKLY I FIND IT VICTIM
BLAMING.
UKRAINE DID NOT ASK FOR WAR.
UKRAINIANS ARE AMBIVALENT AS
EVIDENCED BY THE LAST
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
AMBIVALENT TOWARDS THE WEST AND
DECIDELY HAVE DISTRUSTED RUSSIA
AND INCREASINGLY ARE UNITED
GIVEN RUSSIA'S ACTIONS TOWARDS
UKRAINE.
>> HOW DO YOU BELIEVE PRESIDENT
BIDEN HAS AND HIS ADMINISTRATION
HANDLED THIS SITUATION?
>> WELL, IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY.
MANY PEOPLE IN UKRAINE ARE
ASKING WHY DID THE UNITED STATES
RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ANTAGONISM
NOW OF ALL TIMES?
I THINK THAT IS NOW BEHIND US
GIVEN THE FACT THAT RUSSIA'S
PROMULGATION OF UKRAINE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO TAKE LIVES.
AND SO I'D REALLY WANT TO FOCUS
ON THE FACT THAT UKRAINIANS DO
HOPE FOR A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO
THIS CONFLICT.
THEY ARE VERY APPRECIATIVE OF
WESTERN SUPPORT.
BUT 70% OF UKRAINIANS DON'T
BELIEVE THAT THERE IS
NECESSARILY A DIPLOMATIC
SOLUTION TO THIS.
WHICH IS ALARMING.
>> WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE
ALLEGED LIST OF UKRAINIANS THAT
RUSSIA IDENTIFIED IF IT DOES IN
FACT INVADE AND OCCUPY THE
COUNTRY?
>> WELL, IT'S CHILLING NEWS
FIRST OF ALL.
AND I THINK IT ALSO I THINK
INDICATES THE INTENTION OF THE
RUSSIA TO TRY AND CHANGE THE
REGIME IN KYIV AND THAT IS WHAT
I FIND MOST DISTURBING AND THERE
WERE PLENTY OF SIGNALS OF THAT
IN THIS HOUR-LONG SPEECH BY
PUTIN WHERE HE BASICALLY CALLED
THE GOVERNMENT IN KYIV
ILLEGITIMATE, CALLED IT A
WESTERN COLONY WITH A PUPPET
REGIME AND CLAIMED THAT UKRAINE
WAS DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AND THAT THIS WAS A REAL AND
PRESENT DANGER FOR RUSSIA.
SO THAT'S WHY THIS SPEECH TODAY
I THINK RATCHETED UP THE STAKES
AND MADE CLEAR THAT IF PUTIN
FOLLOWS THROUGH ON WHAT HE SAID
TODAY ABOUT THE DANGERS THAT HE
SAYS THE ZELENSKY GOVERNMENT
REPRESENTS TO RUSSIA IT WILL BE
HARD FOR HIM NOT TO TRY AND
DECAPITATE THE LEADERSHIP IN
KYIV AND TRY TO INSTALL ANOTHER
GOVERNMENT.
>> THAT MEANS OCCUPATION.
AND I DON'T THINK HE WANTS TO
TAKE THAT ON, TOO.
>> ALL EYES ON RUSSIA NOT AN
UNCOMMON INDICATED SITUATION.
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO LEAVE IT