JUDY WOODRUFF: Today, in Moscow, the U.S.-and-a-half dozen countries are holding a
summit about Afghanistan and how best to end the war that the U.S. launched almost 20 years ago.
To discuss the prospects for peace and the Biden administration's Afghanistan policy,
we turn to Nick Schifrin.
So, hello, Nick.
So, tell us, what do we know about what's being discussed
in Moscow? And how does that fit in with the Biden administration's approach?
NICK SCHIFRIN: Moscow has hosted these kinds of talks for years, Judy, but U.S. officials
hope that these talks begin an international diplomatic push
that leads to a peace deal in Afghanistan and the U.S. withdrawal, ahead of an impending deadline.
The talks brought the American, the Russians, the Chinese, the Qataris,
an Afghan delegation, including former President Hamid Karzai, and the Taliban around one table.
The U.S. is trying to rally international opinion in order to pressure the Taliban to agree to a
cease-fire and the Afghan government to step down. In a draft peace proposal first reported
by Tolo News, the U.S. is calling for replacing the current government with a transitional peace
government, a new constitution written by a committee that is almost half-Taliban,
new Taliban lawmakers, a new Supreme Court that is almost half-Taliban, and a national cease-fire.
And Secretary of State Tony Blinken wrote a letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani urging Ghani to
develop constructive positions and ended with an unmistakable threat: "The United States has
not ruled out any option. We are considering the full withdrawal of our forces by May the 1st."
That is the withdrawal date the U.S. and the Taliban agreed to last
February under President Trump, so long as the Taliban talked
peace and prevented al-Qaida from having a safe haven in Afghanistan.
The implication of it all, Judy, the U.S. is asking the Afghan president
and the government to step down before a negotiated peace deal.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, tell us, how is the Afghan government responding to that?
NICK SCHIFRIN: A senior Afghan official tells me they welcome the international diplomatic push,
but point out that the U.S. has not delivered a promised reduction in violence,
and also calls the Biden approach fast food, as in,
it's forcing everybody to consume something that is too quick to succeed.
And President Ghani himself has insisted that, if he steps down,
he will do so with a new election, and he criticized the new U.S. approach.
ASHRAF GHANI, President of Afghanistan (through translator):
Any institution can write a fantasy on a piece of paper and suggest a solution for Afghanistan.
I advise those who go to this or that game to gain power is that political
power in Afghanistan has a singular gate. And that is the vote of the Afghan people.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Senior U.S. officials tell me that that is not good enough,
that the government must agree to step down without a new election.
As for the Taliban, Judy, they reject the part of the peace proposal that
requires them to have a national cease-fire before a piece agreement.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Nick, tell us more about what is behind
this push by the Biden administration. And how are analysts on the outside judging this?
NICK SCHIFRIN: President Trump pushed for as rapid a withdrawal from Afghanistan as possible.
And that led to that 2020 deal that required the U.S. to withdraw by May the 1st. And senior
Biden officials say that that has left them in an almost impossible position.
They could abide by the deal and withdraw, but that would reduce U.S. leverage over peace talks.
And Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Mark Milley recently told national security advisers it would also lead to
the disintegration of the Afghan government, or at least a very violent civil war.
Or the U.S. could ignore the deadline, but that would leave the Taliban
to resume attacks on U.S. troops. And this week, President Biden criticized the deal,
suggesting that it had boxed him into a corner.
JOE BIDEN, President of the United States: That was not a very solidly negotiated deal
that the president, the former president, worked out.
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC News: But May 1 is tough?
JOE BIDEN: Could happen, but it is tough.
NICK SCHIFRIN: So, the administration is pushing for this diplomatic progress to
make progress in the next few weeks. But analysts say that is not a lot of time.
And they say that a provisional government would likely be too weak to actually survive.
Take a listen to the International Crisis Group's Laurel Miller,
who urges the Biden team to support the current government.
LAUREL MILLER, International Crisis Group: Leaving behind an Afghan government, as dysfunctional and
weak as it may be, but that's still standing, is better for Afghanistan, better for U.S. interests,
than leaving behind a cobbled-together transitional government that has no real
foundation in consensus, that would not survive an American withdrawal or the collapse of a peace
process, and that would simply lead to the collapse of the Afghan state as we know it.
I don't think a genuine peace process, which takes time, can be replaced by
a quickie peace process that tries to take short cuts.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Miller and other analysts have other ideas, including a six-month extension
of the withdrawal deadline to try and make more diplomatic progress or putting the U.N.
in charge of peace talks.
They say they do not want the U.S. to stay in Afghanistan
indefinitely. But the fact is, Judy, Afghan security forces admit they cannot
secure their own country without U.S. help. The Taliban has provincial capitals
surrounded, and a campaign of assassinations have left many Afghans feeling very unsafe.
But the diplomatic push will continue, Judy, even if it's hard to succeed. Next month,
there will be an even higher-level summit about Afghanistan in Turkey among foreign ministers.
JUDY WOODRUFF: No easy answers here.
Nick Schifrin covering it all for us.
Thank you, Nick.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.