. OK. It is time a tradition as old as, I guess, this show to give you my predicted
electoral map. Now I want to be. I want to make two disclaimers here. One, I have no idea
on this stuff. I thought Hillary would win in 2016. So this is, as the children say,
merely for entertainment purposes. Number two, my approach was to be conservative. I
understand that 538 and the Princeton Election Consortium and others are talking about but 350
electoral votes for Joe Biden. I want to have a more conservative approach. I don't think
in the end Biden will win Texas and Georgia. I would love to be wrong. I don't think he will.
So I have a final electoral prediction of Biden 295. Trump 243. Yes. It's a smaller margin of
victory than what Web sites are saying. I get that it could be a bigger Biden win, but I think
that not only will Trump get Texas and Georgia in the end, I think Trump will get Florida as well,
and maybe even Arizona, which is really close. Any one of those going to Biden would put him
over 300 electoral votes, which would be a much larger victory. But this is sort of my best guess,
assuming not everything goes Joe Biden's way. I've given North Carolina and Pennsylvania to
Joe Biden. But in my map, again, a conservative map, Trump gets Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas,
Arizona and Iowa. Now, many of these are close. Texas is leaning red still, in my view,
but it could go to Joe Biden. Same with Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, Florida. They really could go
either way. Now, what is Donald Trump's most likely path to victory? Going by how 2016 went,
Trump's most viable path to victory tonight would be likely getting Pennsylvania and something else.
If Trump were to get Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump wins with 279 electoral votes. If Trump
gets Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but not Michigan, Trump wins with 278. If Trump gets both
North Carolina and Michigan in addition to Pennsylvania, then he really wins. Now, this is
something else I think is important to do. A more nuanced map divides the states into those that are
solidly for one of the one or the other candidates versus leaning one way or the other. And I think
that this maybe is is in a relevant way to look when you look at it in terms of solid and leaning
here I am marking Texas and Georgia as leaning Trump. I'm marking North Carolina,
Pennsylvania and Michigan as leaning Biden. Now, I know Michigan looks solid, Biden, but if you look
at the polling in Michigan, Trump has been gaining there. So I put it as leaning Biden in this map.
If you think back to 2016 and the idea of the Wisconsin polls were wrong, the Michigan polls
were wrong, the Pennsylvania polls were wrong. What was happening is that in that very last week,
Donald Trump was gaining. He was growing his support in those states. And more than likely,
if we had had four more days of polling, the polling would have caught up to public sentiment
because public sentiment was changing rapidly in the last few days. That's not happening in
Wisconsin right now. It is happening in Michigan, where Trump has been surging in Michigan,
which is why in a more nuanced map, I put Michigan as leaning Biden rather than
solid Biden. My assessment in this paradigm is that Biden for sure has 236 electoral votes.
Trump for sure has 126. Those are the solid red and blue states. If Donald Trump gets all
of his lean, Trump states, he gets another hundred and seven. That puts Trump at 233.
Trump doesn't have enough for 270 just with solid and leaning Trump states. What this means is Trump
needs to turn something red that is not leaning that way. And that happened in 2016, although the
circumstances are different. It would be some combination of Pennsylvania, North Carolina,
Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. If Trump gets his solid Trump states and his leaning Trump states
and some of the leaning Biden states, he can win. Joe Biden, on the other hand, with his rock bottom
base of 237, needs to find 34 additional electoral votes in the lean Biden states. This is the
important thing to understand. Either candidate can win. Biden doesn't need anything leaning Trump
to win. Biden's going to get his 236. And then if he gets, I don't know, Michigan and Pennsylvania,
he wins. That's 36. He needs 34 more. If he gets North Carolina and Pennsylvania,
then Biden wins. And in this scenario, getting Nevada and Arizona alone, which I have as
leaning Biden, would not be enough. That is my final prediction. Join me tonight, going live.
Just before the 7:00 p.m. Eastern results come in. I will be live on you. Tube. I will
be live on Twitch. I will be live on Facebook. In the meantime, I put a tweet up at D Pacman
asking for your electoral map predictions. Find that tweet at D Pacman. Send me your predictions