Cardano ADA has been hit hard recently,
So let's discuss,
and what I see happening in the future.
The first event that I want to discuss is eToro
delisting Cardano and we need to break this down.
So a couple of weeks back eToro posted a press release
stating that they would limit trading of ADA
and TRX for US users on their platform.
eToro is an exchange, if you're not familiar.
When I read this, I was a little bit surprised
because it was my understanding
and I had read in the past that
IOHK, the foundation behind Cardano,
was extremely stringent in following current regulations
and ensuring a proper launch of their coin
so that there wouldn't be issues like this
in the future.
ICOs, for example, are still a
because it's hard to say if an ICO should pass
the Howey Test or not, or if in fact
this is an investment security that should be
further regulated by the SEC.
Now looking into this even more,
I couldn't find anything that
threw any red flags up about Cardano
after this delisting for eToro,
and then looking into the press release,
there was a few things that
we need to take into consideration.
So, first
users of a relatively small exchange.
In fact, taking a look at this chart
of the largest exchanges for crypto,
eToro doesn't even make the list.
But you know who does make the list, Bitstamp.
This is significant because
and they actually just listed ADA for trading.
So I always find it really interesting
how bad news travels so much further
than good news does.
I mean, it's 10X larger, this exchange,
but yet, you don't really hear about it.
- 31's my number.
- That's impossible.
- Beat it!
- According to Charles Hoskinson,
- There's currently nothing we've received
no regulatory event, no subpoenas,
no nothing from any regulatory agency.
- So why would eToro de-list ADA for US users?
Well, we can't be 100% certain.
One potential reason is simply the
eToro is based in the UK and
offering to trade in the US is
expensive and complicated.
Because of this,
but this can't be the only reason
So we need to look into this further.
Let's start by looking at some metrics.
Real volume is the daily amount
traded of a crypto subtracting wash trades.
So it's like the actual dollar amount traded.
It appears that the current real volume
is just a tad bit higher
than where it was pre-Cardano hype boom,
similar story to transaction volume.
It's a different story, though, if we look at
new addresses holding Cardano.
You might find it surprising that the
total wallets holding at least $100 in ADA
has pretty steadily increased
with only some slight dips in the last few weeks.
And the total wallet addresses,
regardless of dollar amount,
has increased even more
very steadily and recently passing
3 million total wallets.
Now another metric that I like to look at is
And the reason I like these metrics
is because it allows me to not be biased.
I'm invested in Cardano, but I don't want my analysis of
Cardano to have any kind of bias whatsoever.
So, comments per day on a subreddit.
It's not a perfect data point, but it helps
guide us to the right direction
of where excitement behind the project might be.
Here we can see subreddit engagement is
decreasing and has reached a new level of higher lows.
Then if you squint your eyes and look
further into the past on this chart, you can see
other upticks also resulting in new baselines.
And the massive amount of hype around
Cardano at the end of the summer was just
the largest instance of this
new baseline being created
because there was far more fans
added to the community than ever before.
When I look at this chart, I would obviously rather see
a nice steady incline, but looking at this realistically,
I mean, Cardano was everywhere.
So again we ask the question,
Why is this happening?
Why is volume and engagement down so far?
The only answer I can come up with is
surrounding the 'Alonzo' Hard Fork,
back in September.
There was so much hype around this Hard Fork,
fork, and for good reason.
You know, proof-of-stake smart contracts, that's big.
But I don't think we had enough people
giving a realistic outlook
of what that actually means.
I think there was this idea
that smart contracts would be turned on.
They would just, you know, flip that lever, and
at that instant we would have a usable Dex,
we'd have on-chain lending, we would have crypto games,
all ready to roll, all with
the massively low transaction fees of Cardano.
I warned of this, even saying that
the smart contract launch
as the beginning, not as the finish line.
It was at this point that applications could
really start being built
and those things take time.
But unfortunately, over time,
people lose interest.
They get bored. Now, months later,
we're finally on the cusp of
select projects rolling out.
But there's a long ways to go still.
In fact, I don't think there's a single
general purpose blockchain
or large scale dApp that we could
even consider to be completely built. Period.
In all of crypto, they're all in beta.
They're all being worked on.
So it's my thesis that
Cardano was hurt by its own hype.
Cardano, in my mind, is
the tortoise that, you know, had a little bit of a
hare moment.
But honestly it doesn't fit
Cardano's mentality of
measure twice cut once.
You know, this is a slow mover in my mind.
And then we combine these misconceptions with
a correction in the crypto market, which just
lands us with this perfect dookie storm,
pushing Cardano's price down even further.
I've actually just continued to buy at this point.
You know, when the market was really high,
I warned that any project
that dramatically increases in price,
you have to be careful and
I was personally careful. I wasn't buying a whole lot.
So now that prices are down, I'm looking at this as
and that's what I've done.
I currently hold just over 41,800 ADA
and an average buy of $1.22.
Now, of course my gains have gone down,
but I'm still up 42% on this position.
Also, the app that I use to track
all my various crypto portfolios is coinstats.app
I'll have a discount link listed
in the description of this video,
if you need a better way to track
what's going on with your crypto portfolio.
Another question I'm receiving is
What will happen to my Cardano stakepool?
And the answer is nothing.
I've personally only added to that delegation as well.
We currently have 2.9 million ADA staked
in the pool, ticker symbol Max1.
If you're unfamiliar with my stakepool,
I started a pool that helps facilitate
transactions on Cardano.
If you delegate your ADA to the pool,
you'll receive about 5% interest annually
paid to you in ADA.
We also donate 5% of revenue to the
Organization for Autism Research,
and this is at no cost of you
for joining, by the way.
I'll have a video linked in the description,
if you want more information on that.
Now what about Cardano's
I see it mentioned every once in a while
that Cardano is limited to
eight transactions per second,
which would make it worse than Ethereum.
And the argument is,
So let's break this down.
The current transactions per second of Cardano
are around 8.1,
but this can be increased to around
40 to 60 if the network needs it.
And that's not counting the future Hydra upgrade.
So here's how we get this.
The current maximum block size
in Cardano in bytes is 73,728.
A block is created about every 20 seconds
and the average transaction is around 450 bytes,
so 73,728 divided by 20, divided again by 450
8.192 transactions per second on Cardano.
Well we don't know the exact
upper bound limits here.
IOHK has done a large amount of
research on transactions per second
and we can see here that
40 to 60 transactions per second
seems very doable.
The reason it's lower right now is because
and increasing this would only cost more resources.
And none of this is taking into account
the Hydro upgrade, Cardano's layer-2 solution.
Conservative estimates put the speed of this update
to 2500 per second
with some estimates as high as 1 million transactions per second.
So due to all this, I personally don't see
any issues with Cardano
and the speed of transactions.
So where is Cardano headed from here?
Honestly, I'm feeling pretty good about it.
Let's cover some of the good news that has been
kind of glossed over in the recent past.
Cardano recently just passed
20 million transactions.
This has happened four years after launch
and before any activity from Dexes.
Once Dexes are online,
that transaction count will go through the roof
and 20 million will look like chump change.
What's more impressive is in those
four years, Cardano has had near zero downtime.
I could only find one instance
in the last year of about an hour in April of downtime.
And then we have Cardano's ecosystem,
as I mentioned, right now is
build time on Cardano.
Here we can see the ecosystem map
of all the various projects being built
from lending platforms, launchpads,
dexes, and payments.
Most of these will be usable in the coming months.
And it's my thesis that down the road,
once we're seeing project after project launch
and transaction volume increase on Cardano,
the price will have nowhere to go but up.
But when exactly will this happen?
I wouldn't bank on it in a month
or even two months,
but come three to six months,
I think that we'll see many solid
usable dApps running on Cardano
and the bottom line is
So I hope this was helpful in understanding
the reality behind where Cardano stands,
the issues floating around
and some good news here
with this blockchain.
And that's going to do it for today.
I would like to give a special thanks to my
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I'd like to thank you so much for watching.